Pirates vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - June 28, 2024

Pirates at Braves

11:20 pm • SportsNet PT

Pittsburgh Pirates

29-28

1 - 6

Atlanta Braves

38-19

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Morton			4.19	8-10
M.Perez			5.21	2-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 29-28	+1.5-112	o9-110	+180
Braves 38-19	-1.5-108	u9-110	-218

Friday 11:20 p.m.

June 28, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

ATL o4.5-140

0.5u

Hitter friendly umpire/park - Perez 4.48 SIERA/5.68 xERA - ATL 110/108 wRC+ Hm/v LHP - PIT one of worst defenses - PIT bottom third of the league pen estimators L30 days, Bednar on IL.

Over 9+100

Over 4.5 (F5)-130

1.5u

C.Morton o5.5 Ks-120

0.83u

C.Morton o5.5 Ks+105

1.05u

Over 4.5 (F5)-120

0.25u

Small to -133

ATL -165 (F5)

0.25u

Small to -175

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Featured Insight
Braves have a strikeout rate of 28% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- second highest in MLB. Pirates left-handed hitters have struck out 25% against RHP over the last two weeks -- fifth highest in MLB.

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MLB Player Props for Friday: How to Bet Morton & More
Doug Ziefel•
Jun 28, 2024 UTC

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The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Braves are 17-73 (.189) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .103.

Connor Joe is batting just .186 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- 13th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Charlie Morton has thrown a breaking pitch 48% of the time since last season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 96th Percentile.

Michael A. Taylor has an OPS of just .489 this season -- ninth worst among hitters with at least 117 total PA's-- second Percentile. Joe Jimenez has allowed an OPS of just .471 (124 PAs) this season -- 12th best among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (337/762) vs left-handed batters this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% -- 100th Percentile.

Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 49% of the time (696/1,424) since last season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 34% -- 98th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has walked 69 of 671 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- fourth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 22-9 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Braves' 27 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	37-21	15-12	22-9	29-14	8-7
Pirates	30-28	15-16	15-12	17-16	12-12

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	27-27-4	7-18-2	20-9-2	22-18-3	5-9-1
Pirates	31-25-2	20-11	11-14-2	21-12	9-13-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	39-19	17-10	22-9	31-12	8-7
Pirates	30-28	16-15	14-13	19-14	10-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 27th	@CWS	L 0-1	-1.5 L	U 8	CWS -285
Jun 26th	@STL	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	STL -120
Jun 26th	@STL	W 6-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	ATL -125
Jun 24th	@STL	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 9	STL -130
Jun 23rd	@NYY	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	ATL +100

Joey Wentz
RP
Wentz is out with knee
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
SP
Schwellenbach is out with elbow
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out with elbow
Out
Hurston Waldrep
SP
Waldrep is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Perez, P	92	4	4	6
RD.Jefferies, P	51	3	3	0
RC.Holderman, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.McCutchen, DH	1-4	0	0
2B.Reynolds, LF	1-3	0	0
3O.Cruz, SS	0-4	0	0
4R.Tellez, 1B	0-3	0	0
4C.Joe, PH	1-1	1	0
5N.Gonzales, 2B	1-3	0	0
6E.Olivares, RF	0-4	0	0
7K.Hayes, 3B	2-4	0	1
8J.Suwinski, CF	0-3	0	0
8J.Triolo, PH	0-1	0	0
9Y.Grandal, C	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Morton, P	104	6.1	7	0
RJ.Chavez, P	23	1.1	2	0
LD.Lee, P	4	0.1	1	0
LA.Bummer, P	22	1	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Kelenic, CF	1-4	1	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	2-5	1	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	1-2	1	0	3
4M.Olson, 1B	2-4	0	0	1
5A.Riley, 3B	1-4	2	1	1
6S.Murphy, C	1-4	0	0	0
7A.Duvall, RF	1-4	0	0	1
8O.Arcia, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9L.Williams, LF	1-3	1	0	0