Cubs vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - April 4, 2023

Cubs at Reds

10:40 pm • BSOH

Chicago Cubs

11-5

12 - 5

Cincinnati Reds

10-15

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L. Cessa			9.00	1-4
H.Wesneski			4.63	3-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 11-5	-1.5+120	o9.5+100	-130
Reds 10-15	+1.5-145	u9.5-120	+110

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

April 04, 2023

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

T.Stephenson o0.5 HR+700

0.2u

Stephenson has a lot of untapped power with his 6’4” 225 frame and I think this is a good time to buy in at this price. He hasn’t been a big fly ball hitter but with a 16.7 launch angle on the young season I think he is trying to put a bit more lift on the ball and the home runs will eventually come. Wesneski has allowed a fairly high fly ball rate (41.4%) in limited MLB action. Projecting this closer to +420 so I love the price we are getting here

CIN +118

0.5u

L.Cessa u5.5 Hits Allowed-115

DK: Cessa only threw 6 innings in spring and 2 at the WBC. The Reds had him throw 5 innings in an exhibition game last week due to worries about his lack of usage heading into the season. They could limit him to 4-5 innings today and he isn’t a lock to stay in the rotation. He’s allowed a .277 BABIP w/ a shift compared to .269 BABIP w/o a shift so the new rules may not impact him much. Projecting this closer to 4.9 with a 61% chance of staying under 5.5

CIN +110

CHC -0.5 (F5)-102

CIN o4.5+110

1.1u

H.Wesneski o4.5 Ks-120

0.25u

Under 9-107

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The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Reds were just 27-31 (.466) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Nico Hoerner batted .299 on breaking pitches last season -- fourth best in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Luis Cessa threw his slider 39% of the time last season -- seventh highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total SL-- 95th Percentile.

The last hit on a Luis Cessa fastball was September 28th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 20 in ABs ending on his fastball. -- this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

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MLB Public Betting

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cubs	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cubs	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cubs	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 3rd	CHC	W 7-6	+1.5 W	O 9	CIN +100
Apr 2nd	PIT	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 9	CIN -130
Apr 1st	PIT	W 6-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	CIN -148
Mar 30th	PIT	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	PIT -145
Mar 26th	@COL	W 7-5	-	-	-

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Wesneski, P	87	4.2	4	3
RM.Rucker, P	8	0.1	0	0
RA.Alzolay, P	44	2.2	5	2
RB. Boxberger, P	6	0.1	0	0
RJ.Merryweather, P	10	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	3-6	3	0
2D.Swanson, SS	0-3	2	0
3I.Happ, LF	3-4	2	1
4C.Bellinger, CF	3-5	1	1
5T. Mancini, DH	1-5	2	3
6P.Wisdom, 3B	3-5	2	3
7E. Hosmer, 1B	2-5	0	2
8Y.Gomes, C	0-5	0	0
9M.Mastrobuoni, RF	1-5	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL. Cessa, P	83	5.1	2	2
RI.Gibaut, P	8	0.2	2	0
RB.Farmer, P	9	0	0	3
LR. Sanmartin, P	13	0	0	1
RJ.Kuhnel, P	37	2	0	3
RF.Cruz, P	19	1	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	2-4	2	0	0
2T.Friedl, CF	2-2	1	1	1
2S.Fairchild, PH	1-1	1	1	2
2S.Fairchild, CF	1-1	1	1	2
3J.Fraley, DH	1-4	0	0	1
4T.Stephenson, C	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Vosler, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
6W. Myers, RF	1-2	0	0	0
7S.Steer, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
8K.Newman, SS	0-4	0	0	0
9W.Benson, LF	0-4	0	0	0