Jaguars vs 49ers Odds, Prediction, Pick: NFL Week 10
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Jaguars vs 49ers Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 45 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 45 -110o / -110u | -175 |
Jaguars vs. 49ers odds have San Francisco laying a field goal with an over/under that can be found in the range of 45 at most sportsbooks, which is especially important to my 49ers vs Jaguars prediction.
These teams are both coming off of a bye and were trending in opposing directions before it. San Francisco went from undefeated to losing three in a row — including 0-3 against the spread (ATS) — while the Jaguars rattled off five straight wins (5-0 ATS).
I don’t have a strong read on whether these streaks will live on or come to an end, so I’m taking a stand on the total for my Jaguars vs. 49ers pick.
Jaguars vs 49ers Prediction
2023 is the year of the under — it’s gone 84-52-1 (61.7%) so far, which is the best mark since 1991. However, I’m taking the over on 44.5 as I feel both teams are primed for strong offensive showings.
Let’s start with the 49ers as Brock Purdy’s come under fire in recent weeks. San Francisco scored at least 30 points over the first five games of the season, continuing last year’s trend where it eclipsed that mark in all but one start. Unfortunately, they’ve gone in the tank during this three-game losing streak, scoring exactly 17 points in all three contests.
While teams often use injuries as an excuse, it’s actually a legitimate reason in this case. Injuries to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams played substantial roles at one point or another during the 49ers' skid. The bye clearly couldn’t have come at a better time, and I expect them to look like their old selves starting this week.
Getting Samuel back after missing two games with his shoulder injury should pay massive dividends, in particular. According to ESPN, the 49ers average 6.9 yards per play with him on the field compared to 5.4 yards without him.
Additionally, Purdy’s thrown eight touchdowns and no interceptions for a QBR of 82 with Samuel in the fold compared to only four touchdowns and five picks for a QBR of just 59 without him.
Make Your Jaguars vs. 49ers Pick at FanDuel
Meanwhile, although Purdy and the offense have faced plenty of criticism, their defense might be more concerning. San Francisco allowed the fewest points in the league over the first five weeks, but have given up 24.0 points per game since.
The 49ers went from giving up the third-fewest yards per game (266.8) to the third most (395.5). As a result, head coach Kyle Shanahan is forcing defensive coordinator Steve Wilks to coach from the sideline instead of his regular spot in the booth in an effort to right the ship.
They’ll have their hands full trying to stop the streaking Jaguars, who are averaging the second-most points in the NFL since Week 5 (29.3). Trevor Lawrence and company are scoring on 43% of their drives in that span, which is third best in the league. At the same time, the 49ers are allowing teams to score on 47% of their drives, which is the worst mark.
Finally, it’s worth pointing out that the over hasn’t just hit in two of Jacksonville’s last three games. It has crushed it. The Jags combined with the Colts to score 57 points, which was 13 more than the 44 that the line closed at, while also combining with the Saints to score 55, which was 14 more than the 41 that that total closed at.
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Betting Picks & Predictions
Backing an over in 2023 feels like a risky proposition, but I’m going with it nonetheless.
San Francisco’s offense is the healthiest it’s been in a long time, and you just know Shanahan’s been cooking up something special ahead of this marquee matchup. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are putting up points in bunches, and they've had ample time to prepare during the bye as well.
This line’s been jumping around all week. It opened at 44 and got as high as 46. I managed to grab it at 44.5, and some books are still offering it at that number, so be sure to shop around.
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