Eagles vs Buccaneers Prediction, Pick | Wild Card Monday
My Eagles vs Buccaneers prediction and pick for Wild Card Monday is on the over/under. Eagles vs Buccaneers odds have the Eagles installed as 3-point favorites on the spread with a game total of 43.
The Eagles were in full control of the conference after 11 weeks of the regular season at 10-1, but they lost five of their final six games to lose not only the No. 1 seed, but also the NFC East.
Most expected Tampa Bay to fall out of the playoff picture following Tom Brady's retirement, but Baker Mayfield had a renaissance season, leading the Bucs to a 9-8 record and an NFC South division title. Tampa Bay ranks third in our Action Network luck rankings — Philadelphia is second — and the injury status of both quarterbacks throws a real wrench into analyzing this game.
The Eagles opted not to rest starters in Week 18 and played for a potential division title. It led to key injuries to A.J. Brown (knee) and Jalen Hurts (finger). Brown won't play on Monday night and Hurts could be limited. For the Bucs, Mayfield (ankle/ribs) is active after entering Monday with the questionable tag.
Eagles vs Buccaneers Prediction
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Eagles vs Buccaneers Odds
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 43 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 43 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Preview
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Eagles and Buccaneers match up statistically:
Eagles vs. Buccaneers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 10 | 14 | |
| Pass DVOA | 12 | 14 |  |
| Rush DVOA | 5 | 8 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 20 | 29 | |
| Pass DVOA | 16 | 29 | |
| Rush DVOA | 28 | 22 | |
Mayfield’s performances over the past two weeks suggest that he’s not fully healthy. The Buccaneers were shut out for three quarters against New Orleans and then went to Carolina and didn’t score a touchdown in a relatively fortunate 9-0 win against the league’s worst team. There were 34 quarterbacks to play at least 20 snaps in Weeks 17 and 18. Mayfield ranked 30th out of 34 in EPA + CPOE composite. If you isolate for just CPOE — completion percentage over expected — only five quarterbacks were worse than Mayfield and none are starting-caliber quarterbacks.
When you change the sample to just Weeks 1-16, prior to a potential rib injury, Mayfield was 13th out of 56 qualified quarterbacks. It's clear from both the statistical perspective and eye test that he's not operating anywhere near peak form.
The Eagles' defense is dead-last in the NFL in the last four games since Matt Patricia replaced Sean Desai as the team's defensive coordinator. They conceded points on all but one drive to Arizona and then allowed 24 first half points to Tyrod Taylor and the Giants last week. Darius Slay returns from injury after missing the last four games following a knee surgery. Slay hasn't been the same elite corner as years past, but he's a major upgrade for a secondary that doesn't otherwise have a plus cover corner. The Eagles are also likely to be without Reed Blankenship, who has struggled most of the second half during this losing stretch as well.
Much of the Eagles' extreme struggles the last two weeks have come from confusion and assignment uncertainty. There's no guarantee it will get fixed in the extra rest heading into this playoff game, but it reasonable to expect Philly's defense to be just generally bad instead of 'worst in the NFL'-level bad like it has been the last couple games.
Eagles-Buccaneers Picks | FanDuel
The Eagles' offense without Brown and a potentially less-efficient Hurts leaves some real concerns. The Eagles' running backs are dead last in the NFL in yards after contact. The offensive scheme is very average and relies a lot on individual talent winning 1-on-1 matchups. Philly has been the most-blitzed team in the NFL this year and ranks 26th in EPA per play against the blitz. Hurts' numbers have been consistently mediocre against the blitz for multiple years now, and Todd Bowles blitzes at the third-highest rate in the NFL.
Unlike the Eagles' communication issues on defense, it's unlikely Philly will find a solution for its offensive issues without its star receiver. The Eagles don't really have a reliable third receiver as Quez Watkins and Julio Jones have produced next to nothing for most of this season. DeVonta Smith will see more attention as the top wide receiver, and Hurts will need to lean on receivers he hasn't totally trusted to win against the blitz in this matchup.
When you look at the season-long metrics, the Eagles are a top-10 offense across the board, but the explosives have been much harder to come by. Losing Brown hurts this even more, and I expect the Eagles to be extremely methodical and run-heavy to try to protect the defense.
Tampa Bay's defense dealt with a ton of injuries in the middle of the season — especially in the secondary — but enters this game as healthy as it's been all year.
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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Pick & Prediction
These two teams met in Week 3 on Monday Night Football and the total closed at 44.5 in the same venue. Philadelphia dominated in the running game, but Hurts couldn't do much against the blitz. The Eagles' defensive line completely overwhelmed the Buccaneers along the offensive front as well. Philadelphia's defense isn't nearly as dominant up front now, but this total should be a few points lower.
Given the possibility of rain throughout the game as an additional factor, I'd bet the under at 43 or better.
