Patriots vs Broncos Best Bets: 4 Picks & Props (NFL Week 16)

Patriots vs Broncos Best Bets: 4 Picks & Props (NFL Week 16)

The NFL Christmas Eve slate for Week 16 concludes at Mile High, and we have Patriots vs Broncos best bets.

Patriots vs Broncos odds have the Patriots as 7.5-point underdogs (FanDuel; DraftKings) with a game total of 37. We have three NFL betting analysts who are aligned on the same spread pick – a Patriots cover. We also have one player prop pick on Ezekiel Elliott to go over his rushing yards total. Check out our four Patriots vs Broncos best bets below.

Click on a pick below to navigate this post.

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By Sean Koerner

This matchup features the second-highest NFL Luck Rankings gap in Week 16. The Patriots have been the fifth-unluckiest team, while the Broncos have been the fifth-luckiest.

The Patriots' offensive struggles have been well-documented, but that unit has been trending up the past couple of weeks and ranks 15th in DVOA over the last two games.

I think it’ll be New England's defense that keeps this game fairly close in what should be a low-scoring game. The Broncos have been a run-heavy team this year, especially since their Week 9 bye. They’ve had the fourth-highest rush rate over expected since Week 10. This could be a tough spot for them as the Patriots defense ranks first in DVOA against the run.

Bill Belichick is always great at taking away the opposing team’s best player in the passing game. Look for the Patriots to try to shut down Courtland Sutton, which would limit a Broncos offense that doesn't have many weapons beyond him. Jerry Jeudy has struggled this year, especially against man coverage (which the Pats use at the seventh-highest rate), while someone named Lucas Krull is now operating as their lead TE right now.

For a team that could struggle to put up many points, the Broncos probably shouldn't be favored by 7.5 and getting this many points in what should be a low-scoring game is hard to pass up

Pick: Patriots +7.5 (-120)

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By Nick Giffen

This spread is too far given how each team's underlying statistics this year. The Patriots’ third-order Pythagorean win percentage, which uses a schedule-adjusted version of our Action Network Expected Scores, has the Broncos as a 40% win team while it has the Patriots as a 36% win team.

This game is about as close to a Luck Matchup as possible without actually being one, with the Luck Differential sitting at 23 and a Luck Gap of 23.6%, especially with the Patriots as the road team where some extra signals are triggered.

Additionally, road underdogs in games with a total below 38 are 60% ATS since 2009.

I also don’t love the matchup for Russell Wilson who has converted to a low average depth of target this year, with a career-low 7.0 intended air yards per attempt. The Patriots' strength is their run defense and if they’re able to put Wilson into third-and-long situations, it’s going to force him to throw deeper than he has been this year.

I’ll take the unlucky road team in a low total game catching more than seven points.

Pick: Patriots +7.5 (-120)

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By John LanFranca

You can use whatever duration of time you'd like but in recent years, 'dogs of this magnitude in a game with this low of total have covered at above 55%. Since 2018, all dogs with a total below 42 have covered at a 59% rate, according to Action Network's Evan Abrams. Now that this number has risen above the key number of seven, it has become a clear play on the Patriots.

The Broncos have continued to operate as an offense protecting Russell Wilson, who has completed below 60% of his passes in three consecutive games and is starting to wear out his welcome with head coach Sean Payton. The Broncos' offensive staff is going to call a conservative game plan, avoiding mistakes on offense and allowing the defense to try and win the game.

The problem with that in this specific spot is the strength of the Patriots rush defense. Only 25.5% of all runs against New England have resulted in a five-yard gain, which is the lowest rate in the league. Running backs are averaging just 3.27 yards per carry against this stout front, and it's going to put the Broncos behind the sticks continuously throughout the game.

Any time there is a punt-fest type of game that turns into a rock fight, you can bet I am going to take the full touchdown of points with the underdog. I'd play the Patriots to +6.5.

Pick: Patriots +7.5 (-120)

By Matt Trebby

In two games without Rhamondre Stevenson, Elliott has eclipsed this total once. He did so against the Steelers in a positive game script for New England but did not against the Chiefs in a game that saw the Pats trail for most of it.

I’m higher than most on New England in this game and think it’ll be closer than the 7.5-point spread would indicate. That said, I see Elliott getting noteworthy volume.

The key to this bet, though, is the Broncos’ run defense. Denver remains 32nd in Rush DVOA, and that part of the defense will likely be what the Pats look to attack. They won’t want to put the game in Bailey Zappe’s hands, instead leaning on Elliott, who is more reliable than the second-year QB despite his inefficiency.

This is a big number to bet an over on for a player who has averaged 2.5 and 3.1 yards per carry as the lead back, but the matchup has me looking to back Elliott up to 66.5 rushing yards.