NFL Best Bets Week 12 | Expert Sunday Picks ATS, Over/Under
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Davante Adams.
NFL Best Bets | Week 12
Our staff has found its favorite NFL picks for Week 12's Sunday afternoon's two slates of games. Check out the spreads and totals that make up our NFL best bets we're on below. Click on a pick to navigate this file.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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| 4:25 p.m. | ||
| 4:25 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Browns vs. Broncos
I love the Browns in this spot. While the Broncos have historically had one of the best home-field advantages during this time of year, the Browns are certainly capable of playing well in cold weather.
Ultimately, I don't see Denver's recent turnover margin as sustainable. The Broncos have generated 10 more turnovers than their opponents over the last three games. Denver's defense is playing better, but it has had some luck on its side recently. The offense continues to be mediocre at best and that should continue against the Browns, who are first in defensive DVOA this season.
While it doesn't feel good betting on a rookie quarterback on the road, I don't expect the Browns to ask Dorian Thompson-Robinson to do much in this game. The Broncos are ranked 31st in DVOA against the run and 30th in rush EPA this season. Cleveland will run the ball as often as possible and lean on its offensive line and defense.
In addition to betting the spread, I am including the Browns in my teasers to get them up to +7.5 points.
Pick: Browns +1.5 (-110)
Browns vs. Broncos
Denver's defense has made real improvements since the demolition in Miami that saw it concede 70 points. But the Broncos' recent offensive success, especially once off the script, is built entirely off of good field position and turnover luck. The Broncos haven't been able to sustain long scoring drives at all, and they'll now face the NFL's best defense. Cleveland is first in every defensive category and completely shut down the Steelers last week outside of one long touchdown run.
Right now, there's not a huge difference between the quality of the Pittsburgh and Denver offenses. This total shouldn't be above 35, either. Pittsburgh had so many injuries on defense that it was essentially starting five practice-squad-caliber players and Dorian Thompson-Robinson managed 13 points. Denver is a better defense than the Steelers D that took the field last week.
The Browns didn't give Thompson-Robinson a chance to throw the ball down the field and kept him entirely to first-read throws. The Broncos offense ranks 25th in success rate since Week 5 and if you remove the first quarter, those numbers fall to the bottom five in the NFL.
I'd bet the under at 35.5 or better and expect the Browns to be once again extremely conservative and try to play defense and field position to a close one.
Pick: Under 37
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Kansas City's offensive struggles were on display for all to see on Monday night. The Chiefs haven't scored in three consecutive second halves and averaged just 5.3 points per game in second halves for the season. Over the past four games, the Chiefs — the Chiefs!! — rank bottom eight both passing and overall as an offense by DVOA.
But the Chiefs are still an above-average team, even in this recent stretch, because the defense also ranks third in that stretch, and the Raiders are in the top 10 in the same window. These are two of the more underrated defenses in the league. Las Vegas can be run on, but the Chiefs are struggling to run. Additionally, the Raiders have scored 18 or fewer points in all but two games and haven't found much offense with Aidan O'Connell at QB.
These teams are a combined 17-4 (81%) to the under, with Raiders games averaging about 37 points a game and Chiefs games at 39. Raiders games have finished at 42 points or below in nine straight, and Las Vegas has established a clear identity (running the ball, chewing up the clock and giving O'Connell a chance) under interim coach Antonio Pierce. Expect more of the same here.
Pick: Under 43.5
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Bills vs. Eagles
The Eagles were outplayed for large stretches of the Monday Night Football comeback victory against the Chiefs. Philadelphia had fewer yards and first downs, and it needed two Kansas City red-zone turnovers and a high-leverage Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop to pull out the road victory. Both teams have played 10 games this year and the Bills have a better point differential overall. The Bills have run really poorly in close games (2-5), while the Eagles have run better in close games (6-1) than every NFL team not named Pittsburgh.
Buffalo is still a top-five run and offense, according to DVOA, and it has had terrible turnover luck and finishing drive variance that has created a perception that the team is much worse than it actually is. From a buy-low/sell-high perspective, this is a great spot for Buffalo to catch more than a field goal.
The Bills offense is No. 1 in rushing success rate, No. 2 in passing success rate, No. 1 in overall success rate and No. 2 in EPA per play when you exclude turnovers. The biggest criticism of Dorsey was his lack of structure for Allen and his poor play-calling.
That's something that could be improved to help the Bills be more methodical overall. The Eagles have major holes in the secondary that Sean Desai has to scheme around. James Bradberry and Darius Slay are in the bottom 15% in coverage separation allowed.
As long as Buffalo is +3.5 or better, I'm betting the Bills on Sunday.
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Steelers vs. Bengals
By Simon Hunter
We’ve all heard how lucky the Steelers are this season. They might have one of the worst offenses we’ve seen compared to its talent on the roster.
It all comes down to Kenny Pickett … or does it. Ask any fan of the team and they'll blame it all on the now-former offensive coordinator Matt Canada. So, ding dong the witch is dead.
I have no clue if this is the spark the offense needs. What I do know is the new offensive coordinator will be running a different style of offense, which is what the Steelers have talked about all week since making the change.
The biggest thing to me is backing a Mike Tomlin-coached team coming off a divisional loss. I always love him in this spot. Now, mix in that the Steelers are facing a backup QB, and how can you not back this Steelers defense?
Quarterbacks making their first career start vs. Steelers are 1-11 straight-up (SU) in their last 12 games dating back to 1987.
Don't take -2.5. It's great we're getting -1.5, and I'd still play -2. Every point matters in these types of matchups between two bad offenses.
Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-115)
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Steelers vs. Bengals
Teams often get a dead-cat bounce after firing a coach, so maybe the Steelers offense will get a boost post-Canada.
A game plan designed by the running backs coach might come at the perfect time, too. Pittsburgh's rushing attack has quietly exploded to No. 3 DVOA over the past month since rookie Broderick Jones took over at right tackle, and Cincinnati's run defense ranks 30th for the season. Jaylen Warren has run for 318 yards over the past three weeks and could be in for another big game. He's +360 (bet365) to run for at least 75 yards and +1075 to hit 100, something he's done each of the past two games.
There's a real chance Pittsburgh runs all over this beaten-down Bengals defense, and Cincinnati could lose the trenches on the other side as its porous pass blocking could struggle against Pittsburgh's elite pass rushers.
The Steelers pass defense is very good, even without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and this could be a very difficult first start for Browning. We saw the Bengals struggle to even score a field goal with a hampered Burrow earlier this season. Pittsburgh has won 12 of 16 against Cincinnati, and Tomlin is 21-11 (66%) against the spread (ATS) against the Bengals in his career.
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Jaguars vs. Texans
This is the one Texans fans have been waiting for ever since Houston started this magical run, and this team is really coming together.
The defense Texans ranks inside top 12 by DVOA over the last five games and has been especially good against the run. Speaking of the run game, Houston is starting to run the ball with some success itself and now gets Dameon Pierce back. C.J. Stroud keeps answering every question, and he and DeMeco Ryans have this team cruising.
Houston is winning games in the trenches, and the Texans should do so again here. Jacksonville's offensive line has struggled all season, bottom three in both Pass and Run Block Win Rate, and The Texans defensive line ranks top two in Pass Rush and Run Stop Win Rates. Will Anderson Jr. is quietly making a Defensive Rookie of the Year push (+1500 if you're so inclined), and the offensive line is finally healthy and coming together nicely now too.
Jacksonville's defense was exposed by San Francisco a week ago and by Stroud and these Texans earlier this season. The rookie sensation has consistently been great picking apart zones when he gets time, and he looks poised for another big game.
If Houston gets the best of Jacksonville's defense again, there's little reason to believe the Jaguars can keep up.
Saints vs. Falcons
It’s crazy to think that this game — and the rematch in New Orleans — will probably decide the NFC South. Both teams are quite mediocre overall, but the New Orleans defense has shown some real cracks in recent weeks. The Falcons are at the bottom of our Action Network Luck Rankings because they’ve had a ton of high-leverage turnovers and close games swinging against them.
Saints quarterback Derek Carr is in concussion protocol still and the high variance nature of this offense under potential backup Jameis Winston is probably not optimal for them to try to rely on their defense to win games. That’s not a ringing endorsement of Carr, but the Saints are a defense-first team that isn’t built to overcome turnovers and short fields at all.
The most surprising unit in this game overall is the Falcons defense. Atlanta is sixth in defensive success rate allowed and only marginally behind New Orleans in the defensive metrics. For me, these two teams are roughly even, and I’m getting Atlanta with the points at home.
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