After getting NFL football back in our lives on Thursday night, we have three games on the docket tonight.
Our three NFL best bets are focused on two games. The first is in Miami, where Michael Penix Jr. will get his first snaps on the professional field. Then we'll head north to Baltimore, where the Ravens will look to bounce back after losing two straight preseason games to end last August. (You may think "Why does that matter?" Well, Baltimore won 24 straight before dropping those two.)
Let's dive in.
NFL Best Bets for Friday Night's Preseason Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Matt Trebby's NFL Best Bet: Atlanta Has the QB Edge
By Matt Trebby
The name of the game in preseason is bet the quarterbacks. That’s what I’m doing with this Falcons vs. Dolphins matchup.
Mike White is a subpar backup, and we saw what Skylar Thompson can/can’t do two seasons ago when Tua Tagovailoa got hurt down the stretch for the Dolphins.
We'll probably see a lot of Thompson, who averaged 6.4 yards per attempt last season in extensive preseason duty. He attempted 24, 22 and 16 passes in Miami’s three preseason games and threw three touchdowns to four interceptions.
On the other side, we do have a bit of unknown with Michael Penix Jr. The eighth overall pick in this year’s draft was a bizarre selection, but no one is doubting his arm talent. He has shown flashes in camp and at 24 years old should acclimate himself well in preseason.
Backing up Penix will be Taylor Heinicke. While Heinicke isn’t more than a backup after we’ve seen enough of him as a starter in the regular season, I’d rather have him than White.
For my money, the Falcons have the two best quarterbacks in this game. I’m going to back them laying anything less than a field goal.
Pick: Falcons -2.5 (-110)
Sam Farley's NFL Best Bet: Back Harbaugh's Preseason Record
By Sam Farley
The rationale here isn't anything especially clever, but you simply can't ignore John Harbaugh's 44-14 preseason record. That includes a 40-18 mark against the spread.
Yes, the Ravens had a losing record last summer but that isn't as good of an indicator of his preseason pedigree as the record he's set since 2008. Harbaugh may not be playing all his starters, with Lamar Jackson confirmed as being out, but he gets his troops ready to fight and they'll take this game to the Eagles.
When Nick Sirianni has just one win in nine preseason games and has only covered twice. Just follow the herd, take Harbaugh and let's ride.
Pick: Ravens +1.5 (-110)
John LanFranca's NFL Best Bet: Play the Eagles-Ravens Total
Harbaugh usually opts to rest starters in the preseason, but we could see some of the key offensive linemen get reps early in the game since the Ravens are replacing three starters up front. As for the Eagles, expect more of an up-tempo attack from new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore that should quicken the pace of this game regardless of who's in at quarterback.
The main reason I'm attacking the total in this game is simply because I believe it is a few points too low. The market in preseason games has not been fully corrected since the shortened preseason schedule has been installed.
In Week 1 of the 2023 preseason, 12 of the 16 games played had 35 or more points scored. There are a number of reasons this could be the case, but the fact that there are fewer live reps in the preseason now has teams feeling a touch more urgency in wanting to get meaningful offensive snaps on tape.
Finally, every game played by the Ravens and Eagles in the 2023 preseason went over this total, including the one they played against each other.
This total should be closer to 37.5.
Pick: Over 34 (-112)
