NFL Best Bets: Divisional Round Picks for Sunday
We are just two Divisional Round games away from a conference championship. Our experts have NFL best bets for the Sunday Divisional Round slate, which features Buccaneers-Lions and Chiefs-Bills. Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
The Buccaneers are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season, including outright victories in their last three. A team that's won six of their last seven games and has averaged 25.4 points per game along the way deserves more respect from the oddsmakers.
Oddly enough, the Lions defense has given up 25.4 points per game since their bye in Week 9. This team was lucky to escape last week with a victory given that they allowed 7.7 yards per play to the Rams. That type of performance from the Lions defense has not been uncommon — they finished the season 27th in yards per play allowed.
Detroit ranked 23rd in defending the opposing team's top receiver. The connection between Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans should feast against a secondary that has allowed a 91.5 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season.
No other team in the playoffs was attacked with deep throws more often than the Lions in the regular season (14.3%). I expect an aggressive gameplan from Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, which should result in another back-and-forth game in Detroit.
The Lions have been greater than a four-point favorite on six occasions this season — their three covers came against the Broncos, Raiders and Panthers.
Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (to +6)
Buccaneers vs. Lions
I'm sure you've seen all Jared Goff's home-road splits and how the Lions put up a lot of offense at home. I am a full-on believer in the home version of Detroit.
Since the beginning of last season, the Lions have averaged 30 points per game in domes and have hit their team total over at this number (27.5) in 14 of the last 24 games.
While the Bucs defense has been solid in the second half of the season, they have faced well below-average offensive opponents during that span — Carolina twice, Atlanta, New Orleans and Tennessee — along with several average offenses.
Factoring in that the Lions will likely continue to be aggressive, I would hit their team total to 28.5.
Pick: Lions Team Total Over 27.5
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Chiefs vs. Bills
The market has hovered between 2.5 and 3 for the majority of the week in the lead up to the game. The conditions look cold and somewhat windy, but considerably more manageable for Kansas City than last week's extreme cold at Arrowhead Stadium.
Both quarterbacks will need to use their legs to extend drives. Even though Buffalo should have success on the ground, the injury to Stefon Diggs and the absence of Gabe Davis leaves Buffalo's offense without a clear route to passing success and explosiveness. The Steelers couldn't cover running backs and tight ends all season, but Kansas City has a much better defense overall than Pittsburgh.
I fully expect this game to come down to the final possession and maybe even the first overtime game since the 13 seconds game in 2021.
Buffalo and Kansas City are about even, and when you consider extra rest, health and Buffalo's home-field advantage, this should be lined inside a point. Wait around and see if the line gets back to +3, but I'd bet Kansas City at +2 or better.
Pick: Chiefs +2.5
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