NFL Best Bets: Divisional Round Picks for Sunday

NFL Best Bets: Divisional Round Picks for Sunday article feature image
Credit:

Action Network Design Team. Getty Images.

NFL Best Bets: Divisional Round Picks for Sunday

We are just two Divisional Round games away from a conference championship. Our experts have NFL best bets for the Sunday Divisional Round slate, which features Buccaneers-Lions and Chiefs-Bills. Click on a pick below to navigate this post.

GameTime (ET)Pick
Kansas City Chiefs LogoBuffalo Bills Logo
6:30 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers LogoDetroit Lions Logo
3 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers LogoDetroit Lions Logo
3 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

For additional NFL coverage, including Divisional Round picks and previews, Super Bowl odds, head coaching news and much more, check out our NFL Betting Hub!



Buccaneers vs. Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Logo
Sunday, Jan. 21
3 p.m. ET
NBC
Detroit Lions Logo
Buccaneers +6.5
FanDuel Logo

By John LanFranca

The Buccaneers are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season, including outright victories in their last three. A team that's won six of their last seven games and has averaged 25.4 points per game along the way deserves more respect from the oddsmakers.

Oddly enough, the Lions defense has given up 25.4 points per game since their bye in Week 9. This team was lucky to escape last week with a victory given that they allowed 7.7 yards per play to the Rams. That type of performance from the Lions defense has not been uncommon — they finished the season 27th in yards per play allowed.

Detroit ranked 23rd in defending the opposing team's top receiver. The connection between Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans should feast against a secondary that has allowed a 91.5 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season.

No other team in the playoffs was attacked with deep throws more often than the Lions in the regular season (14.3%). I expect an aggressive gameplan from Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, which should result in another back-and-forth game in Detroit.

The Lions have been greater than a four-point favorite on six occasions this season — their three covers came against the Broncos, Raiders and Panthers.

Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (to +6)

Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) | Bet to +6
Action PRO Upsell Image
The ultimate NFL betting cheat code
Our model's biggest playoff edges
Profitable data-driven system picks
Best player prop bets for every game

Click here to return to the table of contents.


Buccaneers vs. Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Logo
Sunday, Jan. 21
3 p.m. ET
NBC
Detroit Lions Logo
Lions Team Total Over 27.5
FanDuel Logo

By Grant Neiffer

I'm sure you've seen all Jared Goff's home-road splits and how the Lions put up a lot of offense at home. I am a full-on believer in the home version of Detroit.

Since the beginning of last season, the Lions have averaged 30 points per game in domes and have hit their team total over at this number (27.5) in 14 of the last 24 games.

While the Bucs defense has been solid in the second half of the season, they have faced well below-average offensive opponents during that span  — Carolina twice, Atlanta, New Orleans and Tennessee — along with several average offenses.

Factoring in that the Lions will likely continue to be aggressive, I would hit their team total to 28.5.

Pick: Lions Team Total Over 27.5

Pick: Lions Team Total Over 27.5 (-116) | Bet to 28.5

Before betting on the NFL Playoffs, register with Action Network's FanDuel promo code today for a sign-up offer.


Click here to return to the table of contents.


Chiefs vs. Bills

Kansas City Chiefs Logo
Sunday, Jan. 21
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Buffalo Bills Logo
Chiefs +2.5
FanDuel Logo

By Anthony Dabbundo

The market has hovered between 2.5 and 3 for the majority of the week in the lead up to the game. The conditions look cold and somewhat windy, but considerably more manageable for Kansas City than last week's extreme cold at Arrowhead Stadium.

Both quarterbacks will need to use their legs to extend drives. Even though Buffalo should have success on the ground, the injury to Stefon Diggs and the absence of Gabe Davis leaves Buffalo's offense without a clear route to passing success and explosiveness. The Steelers couldn't cover running backs and tight ends all season, but Kansas City has a much better defense overall than Pittsburgh.

I fully expect this game to come down to the final possession and maybe even the first overtime game since the 13 seconds game in 2021.

Buffalo and Kansas City are about even, and when you consider extra rest, health and Buffalo's home-field advantage, this should be lined inside a point. Wait around and see if the line gets back to +3, but I'd bet Kansas City at +2 or better.

Pick: Chiefs +2.5

Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (+100)

Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting coming online in 2024, you’ll be able to bet legally at major sportsbooks. Learn more.


Click here to return to the table of contents.


About the Author
The hub for everything bettors need to know about every sport.

Follow Action Network Staff @ActionNetworkHQ on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.