Chiefs vs Bills Prediction, Pick, Odds | Divisional Round
My Chiefs vs Bills prediction and pick for the AFC Divisional Round targets the Chiefs spread and a Josh Allen player prop. The latest Chiefs vs Bills odds have the Bills listed as 2.5-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 45.5 total points at most sportsbooks.
Patrick Mahomes will play the first true road game of his NFL playoff career on Sunday as Kansas City visits Buffalo in the final game of the NFL Divisional Round slate. The Chiefs survived the extreme cold and comfortably handled Miami with a 26-7 victory in the Wild Card Round on Saturday, giving them two extra days of rest and a considerable health advantage.
Buffalo held off Pittsburgh at home on Monday afternoon. It's the third time in four years that Mahomes and the Chiefs will face Josh Allen in the Bills in January. Kansas City won the last two, but now the venue shifts to Highmark Stadium. The Bills have a number of key inactives, including WR Gabe Davis, LB Terrel Bernard and CB Christian Benford.
Mahomes is 8-1-1 against the spread in his career as an underdog, and although the Chiefs lost the regular-season meeting at home in Week 14 and limped to the finish line offensively, the current health situation for Buffalo makes this game a true toss-up. Continue reading for my Divisional Round betting preview and Chiefs vs Bills picks.
Chiefs vs Bills Prediction
Chiefs vs Bills Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Chiefs and Bills match up statistically:
Chiefs vs. Bills DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 8 | 12 | |
| Pass DVOA | 8 | 9 |  |
| Rush DVOA | 17 | 17 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 3 | 7 | |
| Pass DVOA | 3 | 5 | |
| Rush DVOA | 7 | 27 | |
Buffalo's injury report doesn't look great. The Bills ruled out CB Christian Benford (knee) and LB Terrel Bernard (ankle), though CB Taron Johnson is active.
The Bills made significant improvements on defense in the second half, and Bernard was a major reason why as he was a replacement for the production lost by the Matt Milano injury earlier in the season. Buffalo is expected to have Rasul Douglas (knee; questionable) back in the secondary, but the injuries aren't exclusive to the defensive side of the ball.
Gabe Davis (knee) has been ruled out and Stefon Diggs is dealing with a foot issue — though he carries no injury designation. Diggs was shown barely blocking in the Monday win on a couple different plays, and he didn't practice on Thursday before he was "limited at best" in Friday's practice.
Diggs and Davis are the top two wideouts in this offense and the Bills could be extremely limited in explosiveness if Diggs isn't 100%. It puts more pressure on the run game, which has dramatically increased its usage since Joe Brady became offensive coordinator midseason.
Buffalo may be 7-1 since it replaced Ken Dorsey, but it's not as if the offense is executing at a higher level since his departure. The primary improvements for the Bills have come on the defensive end — and they've had better close-game variance in the wins against the Chiefs, Chargers and Patriots.
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Chiefs vs Bills Picks | FanDuel
The Bills were top three in EPA per play, first in rushing success rate and second in dropback success rate offensively in the first 10 weeks of the season. Buffalo's offense has dropped to seventh in EPA, sixth in dropback success rate and fifth in rush success rate since Brady became offensive coordinator. Prior to Dorsey's firing, the Bills were sixth in early down pass rate.Since Week 11, the Bills rank 17th in early down pass frequency in non-blowout games. Against the Chiefs, this would seem to be a solid approach given that Kansas City finished the regular season 27th in rushing defense DVOA.
The Bills had 29 sets of 1st and 10s in the last meeting in Week 14. On the 15 started with a pass, they converted a first down on just 60% of them. On the 14 first-down runs, the Bills had an impressive 85.7% series success rate. I think the Chiefs will be OK defensively if Buffalo consistently takes the ball out of Allen's hands and tries to lean on the run.
Buffalo's offense had a 41% success rate in that game and Allen finished with a negative EPA per play — and that was with a healthy Diggs. James Cook was their leading receiver and I think there's real questions about how good the Bills pass offense will be against a well above average Kansas City secondary.
Kansas City had its issues in the red zone in the Wild Card Round, but still moved the ball with ease.
Travis Kelce looked healthier and more spry after a week off, and now he gets an extra day for this game as well. Rashee Rice has emerged as a relatively reliable offensive piece. The Chiefs will also have Isiah Pacheco, who didn't play in the last meeting between these teams.
Don’t look now, but that’s two consecutive high success rate games for Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs moved the ball at will against Cincinnati in Week 17 and last week they ran 75 plays and averaged 5.5 yards per play in terrible offensive conditions. If you go back to the first meeting, the Chiefs had a 48% success rate compared to 41% for Buffalo.
Kansas City now gets to face a relatively depleted defense for the second straight week. It seems crazy to say this given their well-documented offensive woes, but the Chiefs' pass offense looks considerably healthier and more reliable right now than Buffalo's.
Chiefs vs. Bills Picks
The market has hovered between 2.5 and 3 for the majority of the week in the lead up to the game. The conditions look cold and somewhat windy, but considerably more manageable for Kansas City than last week's extreme cold.
Both quarterbacks will need to use their legs to extend drives. Even though Buffalo should have success on the ground, the injury to Diggs and the absence of Davis leaves Buffalo's offense without a clear route to passing success and explosiveness. The Steelers couldn't cover running backs and tight ends all season, but Kansas City has a much better defense overall than Pittsburgh.
I fully expect this game to come down to the final possession and maybe even the first overtime game since the 13 seconds game in 2021. Buffalo and Kansas City are about even, and when you consider extra rest, health and Buffalo home field, this should be lined inside a point. Wait around and see if the line gets back to +3, but I'd bet Kansas City at +2 or better.
With Allen relying on his legs and the running game through Cook, his yards total is also inflated. I'm betting under pass yards at 225 or more.
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