Steelers vs Packers Prediction, Odds, NFL Week 10 Pick

Steelers vs. Packers odds have the home team laying a field goal, with the game total sitting at 38.5 at most sportsbooks on Sunday morning.

Mike Tomlin snapped back at a reporter who asked why Kenny Pickett has struggled so much in the first three quarters of games this season (and last year, too). Tomlin chose to highlight Pickett’s success in the fourth quarter, which was on full display in Week 9 against the Titans on Thursday Night Football. Whether Pittsburgh can keep its late-game magic going is up for debate.

Let's break down the matchup and why my Steelers vs. Packers prediction and NFL pick is expecting Pittsburgh's luck to eventually run out.

Steelers vs Packers Prediction

The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season, yet sit at 5-3 and a game back of first in the AFC North.

The offense is 18th in DVOA and just 22nd in rush DVOA, the primary weakness of the Packers defense. Pittsburgh has cycled between Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, but hasn't been able to consistently run the ball on early downs to try to make life easier for Pickett. The Steelers rank 22nd in early down success rate offensively and 25th overall.

The result of that is the Steelers have the highest percentage of three-and-outs in the NFL. The Steelers are also in the bottom five in series success rate, which is a measure of how often an offense converts a 1st and 10 into another fresh set of downs. Green Bay is much closer to league average (22nd).

Net yards per drive is one of the best metrics at stripping down luck, big-play variance and trying to evaluate team strength. There are plenty of game state factors that can impact these metrics in small samples, but we have an eight-game sample to judge both teams now. The Steelers rank 30th in net yards per drive and 26th in net points per drive. They've won all five of their one-score games.

Green Bay ranks 17th in net yards per drive overall and they have a 1-3 record in one-score games. We'd have a vastly different impression of both teams' true quality if you flipped the result of those highly variable close contacts.

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Both defenses are dealing with significant losses in the secondary in this matchup. Jaire Alexander didn't practice all week and is listed as doubtful. The Steelers have yet again ruled out Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The key matchup here is the matchup between the Packers' offensive line and the Steelers' pass rush. The Steelers rank sixth in adjusted sack rate overall at 9.1% and they need the pressure to hide the holes in the back of the secondary. They rely on creating one or two major havoc plays to swing games in their favor.

The Packers' offensive line is second in pass block win rate and fourth in PFF pass block grades. The return of Aaron Jones last week helped the offense considerably in both the pass and the run game.

Jordan Love should have time to throw and the Packers' offensive line is considerably better than Pittsburgh. T.J. Watt is a game-changing player, but Green Bay has been generally good at preventing havoc offensively.

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If you look at our Action Network Luck Rankings, no team has been more fortunate than the Steelers. They have the top spot in the rankings, while Green Bay is way down at 30th. The Packers are 3-5 in record but are much closer to 4-4 based on underlying metrics.

The Steelers aren't much better, if at all, than the Packers to warrant this line being a full three points. With these teams being about even for me, I'd bet the Packers catching at least a field goal on the road.