Cardinals vs Commanders Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 1

Cardinals vs. Commanders odds have the home team installed as Week 1 favorites. Don't expect Washington to be favored by seven points again this season.

The Cardinals enter the 2023 season with super low expectations and are a definite tank candidate. They’re without Kyler Murray and are starting Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Dobbs wasn't on the team until he was acquired via trade from the Browns in late August. As for the Commanders, they’re going with second-year quarterback Sam Howell.

Let's break down the matchup and make our Cardinals vs. Commanders pick.

Last year, the  Cardinals defense was highlighted by Budda Baker, Isaiah Simmons and J.J. Watt. During the offseason, the Cardinals traded Simmons and Watt retired. This has left massive holes for Arizona to fill on the defensive side of the ball. None of the Cardinals’ defensive front five have PFF ratings higher than 65. 

The Commanders will be starting second-year quarterback Sam Howell. There isn’t much we know about him yet at the professional level. He saw some time in their last game of the season in 2022, going 11-for-19 for 169 yards. He also tallied two touchdowns, one rushing and one passing. 

Washington utilizes a dual-running back system, putting both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson to work. Last season, Robinson had about 50 more rush attempts than Gibson, but Gibson made his presence known in the receiving game. When the Commanders wanted to get the ball off quick, it was Gibson who they would call on to get the job done.

Last season, Gibson was targeted 58 times for 353 yards. His 7.7 yards per reception was nearly a yard more than Robinson. When you consider that Robinson had 56 more carries than Gibson, the division of workload becomes clear. Gibson is there as a pass-catching option while Robinson will be the one taking the handoffs. 

As for Howell, based solely on preseason performance, Commanders faithful should be excited. Like with any new quarterback, we have to wonder how Howell will respond to pressure, both atmospheric and literal.

The quick and safe play is to get to the ball to the running back on a blip screen or flare, and due to Howell’s lack of experience, I am accounting for this to happen. 

I also think that Rivera will gameplan for a fretful Howell and design some quick passes. Last season, it was clear that Gibson was the back Rivera wanted catching passes. Accounting for a jittery quarterback is not a diss on Howell, rather an observation about young quarterbacks early.

The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

SAVE 55% NOW!

Last season, the Cardinals allowed 810 receiving yards to running backs, which was the third most in the NFL behind the Raiders and Jaguars.

Add in the fact that Howell is a young quarterback that will presumably have some jitters, I think that quick passes will be the answer to a lot of Washington’s questions.