Broncos vs Chiefs Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction | Thursday Night Football
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
Everything bettors need to know about Broncos vs Chiefs odds for Thursday Night Football — including the spread, total and our expert prediction — is here at Action Network.
Kansas City enters this game as double-digit favorites against rival Denver. Oddsmakers have the Chiefs as 10.5-point favorites on the spread. The game total over/under can be found at 47 (via DraftKings) or 47.5 at most other books.
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The Chiefs are rolling to begin the season, sitting at 4-1 with their lone loss coming in Week 1 to the Lions. The status of Travis Kelce for Thursday Night Football is a positive one for Chiefs and Taylor Swift fans — he's reportedly good to go after sustaining an ankle injury last week.
As for the Broncos, well … they’ve managed to win a game. Sean Payton has suffered a number of embarrassing defeats in his return to coaching, throttled by the Dolphins and then losing the Hackett Bowl to the Jets.
Let’s get into my Denver-Kansas City preview and make a Broncos vs. Chiefs pick for TNF.
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Matchup Analysis
When the Broncos Have the Ball
The Broncos are off to a disappointing start at 1-4, and most of their struggles have been on the defensive side of the ball. Their offense has actually been average to slightly above league average, ranking 16th in DVOA, 13th in yards per drive and 11th in points per drive.
They will be facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 11th in DVOA and fourth in pressure rate. Therefore, Russell Wilson will likely face more pressure than usual this week, which means we need to look into how he’s fared when facing pressure compared to a clean pocket:
Wilson with a clean pocket (out of 36 QBs):
- QB Rating: 3rd
- ANY/A (adjust net yards per attempt): 5th
- EPA/play: 15th
Wilson facing pressure:
- QB Rating: 13th
- ANY/A: 14th
- EPA/play: 21st
Wilson’s efficiency has taken a bigger hit than most signal-callers, but he was still right around league average when facing pressure.
Part of his success when throwing from a clean pocket could be due to softer defenses given that Denver plays from behind at such a high rate – that could be the case again against the Chiefs.
When the Chiefs have the ball
While Travis Kelce is questionable with an ankle injury, this is a matchup where the Chiefs won’t need a big game from him to win.
The Broncos defense is 32nd overall in DVOA and has been equally as bad against the pass (31st) as they have against the run (32nd). It’s a situation where the Chiefs should be able to build a lead with their efficient, pass-heavy offense. Even when they have a nice cushion and start to lean on the run more, they should continue to move the ball effectively and put up points.
I think this is a game where waiting to bet the total in-game could be the way to go. Once the Chiefs get up by two scores, we will see the Broncos become pass heavy and aggressive.
Even in that potential game script, the Chiefs will be able to generate explosive plays and put points on the board. The market may overcorrect in this scenario, thinking the scoring environment will drop significantly, but I don’t think that will be the case.
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Betting Picks & Predictions
Something to monitor is that this game could be played in windy conditions (15-30 mph) with potential rain. It’s always risky taking a side on a total before having a clear weather forecast.
Waiting to bet on the total midgame will give us a chance to gauge how weather is impacting the contest. It’ll also give the market another chance to overcorrect toward the under if the weather at least appears to be visibly impacting the game.
As always, I will for sure have at least one player prop I’m locking in for this game. Be sure to follow me in our app to get an alert as soon as I bet it and you can see me give it out live on Green Dot Daily at 3pm EST.
Pick: Potentially back the over once the Chiefs get up by two scores.
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