The NFL is back tonight.
The preseason is always something I enjoy handicapping and watching. I create the player projections for every preseason game at FantasyLabs, which requires me to monitor news and estimate playing time for all players. I also use this knowledge to also bet spreads and totals and have been using a bottom-up approach to attack preseason for the last three years now.
I’ve gone 41-22 (65%) on tracked bets in our app the last three preseasons combined. As you will find, I treat the game as four separate quarters and tend to bet based on which QBs and units will be on the field and typically bet 1Q or 1H lines pregame and in-game bets to capture lines for the third and fourth quarters and second half.
I should note that whenever discussing things preseason, it is largely a guessing game. Sometimes coaches and beat reporters give us an accurate description of playing time and game plan, while a lot of the time I’m trying to fill in the blanks. I use my years of experience with preseason to arrive at what I “think” will happen, but nothing is a guarantee.
Both teams are expected to rest their starters tonight, which means we’re unlikely to see C.J. Stroud or Caleb Williams under center. Instead, it’ll be the likes of Davis Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle under center for the Texans, with Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien and Austin Reed under center for the Bears. All we officially know is that Mills and Bagent are expected to start. After that, it’s a bit of a guessing game.
Here is how I have tonight’s matchup mapped out, with potential pregame and in-game betting angles, as well as my bet for the game tonight.
Sean Koerner Previews the 2024 Hall of Fame Game
Bears-Texans First Quarter: Tyson Bagent vs. Davis Mills
Duration: First quarter into the second quarter
The only official QB matchup we know for sure will happen is Bagent vs. Mills. I’m guessing Bagent will play the entire first quarter and could see a drive or two in the second quarter, as well. He’s a heavy favorite to be the Bears’ number two QB and was one of the bigger surprises of 2023 by going 2-2 in his four starts last season in place of the injured Justin Fields. He was a relatively unknown undrafted free agent out of Shepard, but he was solid in preseason last year.
Bagent, a relatively unknown undrafted free agent from Shepherd, performed well in the preseason last year. He ranked sixth in PFF grade out of 70 qualified quarterbacks and did not register a turnover-worthy play in 37 dropbacks. Additionally, he scrambled on 11% of his dropbacks, nearly double the league average rate.
Scrambling ability is especially important in the preseason as it provides a more consistent way for a quarterback to keep the chains moving. If his first few reads aren’t available, he can use his legs to avoid a sack or a dangerous throw. This option is not available to strict pocket passers. With less talented pass catchers and limited chemistry during the preseason, scrambling becomes even more valuable.
Davis Mills is entering his fourth season, and we have a pretty good sense as to who he is at this point of his career and will be battling with Case Keenum to be C.J. Stroud’s backup. He’s struggled in preseason and of the 110 QBs who have at least 30+ preseason dropbacks over the last three seasons, Mills has the 12th-highest turnover-worthy play rate. He also scrambles at a very low rate, which only lowers his value in preseason.
Edge: Bears
It’s not a massive edge, but I do think the Bears have a slight edge with Bagent, who can use his legs to keep the chains moving and has done a better job than Mills in terms of turnover-worthy play rate. The Bears may also use Khalil Herbert/Roschon Johnson at RB for most of the 1st quarter, before giving way to Demetric Felton who should see a ton of work the rest of the way. The Herbert/Johnson combo could be an effective one in the first quarter.
Bears-Texans Second/Third Quarter: Brett Rypien vs. Case Keenum
Duration: Mid-second quarter until mid-third quarter
I’m expecting Rypien and Keenum be the next men up. The edge would certainly shift to the Texans once this happens since Keenum has a ton of experience.
While he’s a career journeyman backup, Keenum has flashed at times as a starter in his career. He has very little to prove at this point of his career, so there's a chance he doesn’t play much in this game. I think he could come in for one or two drives in the first half before playing most of the third quarter.
Rypien will likely replace Bagent at some point in the second quarter and potentially play deep into the third. He'd have to really impress in camp/preseason to become the Bears' backup quarterback, so tonight is very important for him.
I consider Rypien to be one of the worst backups in the league, and he should be viewed as a third-string type of QB. When he's in the game and the Texans have Mills or Keenum under center, Houston will have the edge.
Ideally, we see Rypien check in towards the end of the first quarter or start of the second. I'd then be interested in taking the Texans' 1H moneyline live depending on the odds.
Bears vs. Texans Third/Fourth Quarter: Austin Reed vs. Tim Boyle
Duration: Mid-third quarter until the end of the game
This will likely be the QB matchup that closes out the game.
Reed is an undrafted free agent out of Western Kentucky and I think he could impress tonight (within the context of playing QB in the fourth quarter in the Hall of Fame game). He has very good poise in the pocket and isn’t rattled by pressure. In fact, he had the third-lowest pressure-to-sack rate in all of college football last year.
Reed doesn’t have a great arm and sometimes lacks touch on his throws, but we don’t need greatness in the fourth quarter of this game. He seems more likely to avoid potentially disastrous plays than Boyle.
Boyle, one of the worst QBs in the NFL, will likely close the game out for the Texans. Of the 110 QBs who have at least 30+ preseason dropbacks over the last three seasons, Boyle has the seventh-highest turnover worthy play rate.
Edge: Bears. It’s only a slight edge considering this will be Reed’s first snaps, but I'd be willing to take the Bears in-game if the market is implying the Texans should be -0.5 or greater the rest of the way with Boyle under center.
Overall, here's my favorite bet for the night.
Koerner's Pick: Bears 1st Q ML +102 (DraftKings)
As I laid out above, I do think the Bears have a slight edge in the first quarter, specifically with Bagent, who can use his scrambling ability to overcome what should be a rusty passing attack for both teams.
There's a ton of uncertainty with the RB rotation of both teams, but I’m expecting some combo of Khalil Herbert/Roschon Johnson in the first quarter which also gives the Bears a slight edge. I’m expecting the Bears to have the slight edge in the first and fourth quarters, while the Texans have the edge in the second and third quarters. That’s how I plan on attacking this in-game as well.
In-Game Angles
These all depend on the in-game context at the time, and I may change my process accordingly. For all of my official in-game bets follow me in the Action App.
Back the Texans once Rypien enters the game as the Bears QB (doesn’t matter if it’s Davis Mills/Case Keenum under center for the Texans). The best way to attack this would be an in-game 1H line or potentially a third-quarter bet.
Back the Bears once Boyle enters the game as the Texans QB. The best way to attack this would be an in-game bet for the rest of the game. I'll be looking to see if the Bears are plus money or +0.5 at this point.
