College Football Predictions, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Week 13 Bets for Indiana vs. Ohio State, Ole Miss vs. Florida

Welcome to Week 13 of the college football season.

With Rivalry Week coming up next week, Saturday marks the second-to-last full slate of the NCAAF season. That means it's time to make the most of what we have.

My Week 13 Action Network Betting Card features five games on Saturday's slate: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State, No. 9 Ole Miss vs. Florida, No. 16 Colorado vs. Kansas, No. 19 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame and Same Houston vs. Jacksonville State.

I broke down all five games from a betting perspective and came away with a pick or two for each matchup.

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.

Collin Wilson's Week 13 College Football Predictions

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of Week 13 NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Ohio State -13.5 · Over 52
	12 p.m.	Ole Miss -10 · Ole Miss Team Total Over 34.5
	12 p.m.	Jacksonville State -6
	3:30 p.m.	Kansas +3 · Under 59
	7:30 p.m.	Notre Dame -14
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Saturday, Nov. 23

12 p.m. ET

FOX

Ohio State -13.5 · Over 52

A Big Ten Championship elimination game will commence at the Horseshoe when the Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) looks to defend Ohio Stadium from the upstart Indiana Hoosiers (10-0, 7-0).

The Buckeyes have lost one game to date, a trip to Eugene in Week 7. Head coach Ryan Day has had mixed results against the spread since the loss, covering against Penn State and Purdue while escaping Nebraska by four points.

One of the most successful head coaches in the Division II, FCS and FBS levels will challenge Day.

After taking the head coaching job at Indiana, Curt Cignetti was happy to tell the world that Indiana football would trend toward championships. The former James Madison coach displayed his personality, stating, "I win. Google me" to all who would listen at the introductory press conference.

Cignetti has been true to his word, leading a Hoosiers team that is undefeated and dominant against the spread. Indiana is 8-2 record against the number, covering the spread at the largest mark in the nation at an average of 14.6 points.

Ohio State is a 13.5-point favorite on the spread with a 51.5-point over/under.

My Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction and college football picks for this Big Ten battle on Saturday, Nov. 23 are below.

Indiana Hoosiers

How did the Hoosiers become undefeated? Is this sustainable?

The hiring of Cignetti was an easy decision based on his track record at previous stops. He compiled a 52-9 record over five seasons at James Madison and was well remembered in Indiana, going 53-17 at Division II IUP from 2011 to 2016.

Before the head coaching success, Cignetti was a wide receivers coach for Alabama and Nick Saban through 2010. The next item of business was generating NIL funds and combing the transfer portal to upgrade the roster, both of which were considered a success in Bloomington.

Ohio State will be the measuring stick to determine if Indiana's progress is sustainable.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke will be at full strength after surgery on a fingernail that kept the Ohio transfer off the field in Week 9 against Washington.

The former Bobcats quarterback has been excellent in an offense that calls rush on 57% of snaps with a heavy tendency to inside zone. Both Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison have nine rushing touchdowns a piece, with Ellison providing the elusiveness at 3.8 yards after first contact.

The 3-3-5 base defense has numerous analytics that rank it among the top 10 nationally in success rate, havoc and quality drives.

Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines plays exclusive Cover 3 for the Indiana secondary, choosing zone over man coverage on 85% of defensive snaps. The nickel defense has excelled in limiting opponent passing attacks, graded as the 15th-best coverage unit nationally per PFF. Safety Amare Ferrell leads the group with four interceptions and a solid 14 stops on opposing rushers.

Ohio State Buckeyes

There will be no lookahead to Michigan or the Big Ten Championship game, as the focus is on the 10-0 Hoosiers.

Ohio State failed to cover an inflated spread in Week 12 against Northwestern but not for a lack of offensive efficiency.

The Buckeyes are top-10 in offensive momentum killer, a statistic that looks at penalties, missed field goals and other self-imposed interruptions to possessions.

Ohio State was dominant on the ground against Penn State, averaging 5.2 yards per rush while collecting at least two first downs on six of its 10 possessions.

The driving force of the offense has been Ole Miss transfer running back Quinshon Judkins, the centerpiece of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's heavy ground attack.

While inside zone has been the bread and butter of the ground attack, quarterback Will Howard has gone two consecutive games without committing a turnover-worthy play.

Against stiffer competition, Howard has seen an increase in rushing attempts, with nine against Oregon and 11 against Penn State.

Credit is also deserved for coordinator Jim Knowles' nickel defense, which kept the Nittany Lions offense under Andy Kotelnicki from scoring a touchdown.

The rush defense has had struggles in several games, ranking 64th in Line Yards and 76th in Stuff Rate. The Buckeyes have been mid-FBS in defending teams using inside zone, producing a 53% Success Rate, unlike the highly efficient 60% attached to the defense against outside zone.

Knowles also fields a top-10 coverage unit, using man on 40% of coverage snaps versus a mix of Cover 1 and Cover 3 while in zone.

Indiana vs. Ohio State Pick

The box score for the Hoosiers against Michigan before the bye week was eye-opening, as Indiana faced a true top-20 defense for the first time this season.

Indiana was held to three yards on 24 rushing attempts, as the Wolverines stuffed 46% of attempts.

Those issues carried over into passing downs once the Hoosiers got behind the chains, generating a low 29% success rate over 21 attempts. Indiana failed to create a methodical drive against Michigan, which is defined as any possession with at least 10 plays or more.

The lone explosive drive was the difference against a Michigan defense that produced eight tackles for loss and four sacks and held Indiana to an average third-down distance of 8.8 yards.

If there is a negative takeaway from the Week 11 victory, Michigan is subpar in defending the inside zone with a 47% success rate.

Ryan Day mentioned his greatest concern with Indiana is the ability to create missed tackles.

Both Indiana and Ohio State rank just inside PFF's top 35 in tackle grading, but a deep dive into the Buckeyes' defensive numbers backs up the concerns of its head coach. Ohio State ranks 89th in broken tackles allowed in comparison to the Indiana offense, generating broken or missed tackles at the 33rd-best rate in the nation.

Cignetti may have similar concerns with regard to the Ohio State passing attack, as the Indiana defense is 54th in creating contested catches. That number will clash with Howard's passing attack, which is third in on-target rate, per Sports Info Solutions.

Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Ohio State -13.5 with a total north of the key number of 55.

Considering Indiana's inability to find success with inside zone against Michigan, Ohio State should post dozens of plays in standard downs while limiting third-down distance.

The explosive element on offense is key for the Buckeyes on the ground against a Hoosier defense that's 71st in opponent rush EPA.

The Buckeyes are the side considering Indiana's tepid rank of 40th in Defensive Finishing Drives with a schedule strength outside the top 100.

Pick: Ohio State -13.5 or Better · Over 52

Saturday, Nov. 23

12 p.m. ET

ABC

Ole Miss -10 · Ole Miss Team Total Over 34.5

The Ole Miss Rebels head to Gainesville on Saturday afternoon to take on the Florida Gators in an SEC showdown. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.

Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 SEC) has a better shot of making the College Football Playoff than competing for an SEC Championship. Because of tiebreakers between six different teams at the top of the conference, Ole Miss would need nearly every team at the top of the standings to lose. Still, the selection committee placed Ole Miss as the third-highest-ranked SEC team.

The path is clear for head coach Lane Kiffin: win at Florida and in the Egg Bowl for a ticket to the 12-team playoff.

On the other side, Florida (5-5, 3-4) is champing at the bit for a sixth win to make an improbable bowl appearance.

Head coach Billy Napier will get two cracks at getting a sixth win, first as a large underdog to Ole Miss and in the Week 14 showdown as a favorite at Florida State.

The Game of the Year number settled at Ole Miss -6.5 preseason and moved to an opener of -9.5 after Week 12. The spread has taken steam on the Rebels, climbing to 10.5 as of writing. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 55.5.

Let's dive into my Ole Miss vs. Florida predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.

Ole Miss Rebels

Since a bye in Week 8, Ole Miss has been on fire both offensively and defensively. Three consecutive victories over Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia have come by a combined 62 points.

The defense has the top spot in our current Havoc Rankings, generating top-10 numbers in pass rush grading. Edge rushers Princely Umanmielen and Suntarine Perkins rank as two of the top six FBS players in Pass Rush Productivity, per PFF.

Defensive coordinator Pete Golding's nickel defense has been stellar against the rush with a top-20 rank in all analytics.

If there's a drop-off on the Ole Miss defense, the secondary falls to 31st in coverage despite the second-most pass breakups in the country.

The offense has been a steamroller behind quarterback Jaxson Dart, posting a top-five rank in Quality Drives. More than half of the Rebels' offensive possessions against Georgia had at least two first downs, nearly doubling the Bulldogs' number in yards per play.

Ole Miss' pass efficiency has skyrocketed the past three games despite the loss of leading receiver Tre Harris.

Dart has posted eight touchdowns to just a single interception since the bye week and is now set to get his most dangerous weapon back against Florida.

Florida Gators

A covering effort against Georgia was costly for Florida's roster, suffering several injuries heading into a Week 11 road trip at Texas. The Longhorns took advantage of a Florida squad missing starters at quarterback, wide receiver and both cornerback positions.

The Gators got healthy in Gainesville last week, as quarterback DJ Lagway and receiver Elijhah Badger returned to action for a double-digit victory over LSU as underdogs.

Lagway survived 10 pressures on 26 dropbacks without taking a single sack against LSU. The scrambling skills will be needed against Ole Miss, as the rushing attack continues to be a complementary phase.

Jadan Baugh and Ja'Kobi Jackson have produced 11 touchdowns on a heavy amount of inside zone. Star running back Montrell Johnson also returned from injury for a few carries against LSU but should be full speed for Ole Miss.

The rush offense generated 6.7 yards per play against LSU, following up a 68% Success Rate on 40 carries against Texas.

The Gators' nickel defense improved after simplifying concepts, schemes and communication. The results were apparent in the first half against Georgia, limiting the Bulldogs to just six points.

Injuries took a toll at all levels, particularly on every starter in the secondary.

The key names to watch on the SEC availability report are cornerbacks Jason Marshall and Devin Moore.

They'll be important because LSU targeted sophomore cornerback Dijon Johnson eight times for six completions and 40 yards after contact.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Pick

Ole Miss is fully prepared to stop a Florida rush offense that should be playing at full strength. Efficiency, Line Yards and Stuff Rate numbers all point to the Rebels dominating the trench.

If that's the case, the Gators will fall into passing downs, where they rank 94th in Success Rate and 112th in explosives.

Florida sits 99th in third-down conversion rate — a negative heading into a game against an Ole Miss defense that leads the nation in average third-down distance at 8.6 yards.

The Gators offense must also correct issues at the line of scrimmage, ranking 96th in Havoc Allowed.

Lagway has been impressive as a freshman under fire against the SEC schedule, but an average time to throw of 2.8 seconds will give Ole Miss plenty of sack opportunities.

With the Rebels offense at full strength and the prospect of underclassmen in the secondary, Lagway could be throwing plenty with a deficit on the scoreboard.

Action Network's Betting Power Ratings make Ole Miss a -10 favorite come in at Ole Miss -10, but injuries to Florida's defense and good news at the Rebels' skill positions will have an impact.

Look to take Ole Miss with College Football Playoff motivation in mind. Also, monitor the status of Florida's defense, as Ole Miss may have no reason to kneel if Kiffin wants to add style points for the committee.

Pick: Ole Miss -10 · Ole Miss Team Total Over 34.5

Saturday, Nov. 23

12 p.m. ET

CBS Sports Network

Jacksonville State -6

In Week 13, Sam Houston (8-2) will travel to Jacksonville State (7-3) in a Conference USA Championship elimination game.

Famous for midweek college football in October, the newly shaped Conference USA is a four-team race to the finish, with Liberty and Western Kentucky in the other elimination game.

Head coach Rich Rodriguez has struggled with the Gamecocks against inferior competition through the past two weeks, beating Florida International and Louisiana Tech by a possession or less.

K.C. Keeler has been the head coach of Sam Houston since 2014, and the Bearkats have won an FCS national championship and three Southland Conference championships. The transition to FBS was rough after the Bearkats finished 2020 and 2021 with a 21-1 record. The Bearkats struggled as an FBS member last season, finishing 3-9 and receiving odds of 25/1 to win Conference USA in 2024.

With full health at the skill positions, Sam Houston is a true contender to win a conference title in only its second year of FBS play.

Jacksonville State will play host as a 6-point favorite at AmFirst Stadium, with a 55.5-point over/under.

My Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State predictions and college football picks are below.

Sam Houston Bearkats

Handicapping the Sam Houston offense centers around a single player, as quarterback Hunter Watson orchestrates Keeler's rush-heavy attack.

Watson is the leading rusher on the team, alongside running back Jay Ducker, with the two combining for 13 rushing touchdowns.

The Bearkats use a heavy amount of inside zone with a pivot to power and outside zone for an offense that opts to run on 63% of snaps.

Sam Houston is just inside the top 40 nationally in line yards, stuff rate and distance of first contact, all signals that this offensive line wins the trench battle.

The nickel defense is the best in Conference USA by a country mile, ranking 56th of all teams in FBS per SP+.

The Bearkats have allowed nearly the least amount of rush explosives while posting a defensive quality drives rank of 12th. Hard stops, a PFF metric that measures a complete failure by the offense, is a forte of Sam Houston, which ranks in the top 10.

The pass rush has been a force, led by edge Chris Murray and his 27 pressures. Safety Caleb Weaver and linebacker Kavian Gaither lead the team in tackles with a combined 117 for the season.

If there is a weakness to the defense, it's teams that can establish rush efficiency.

Sam Houston is bottom 20 in defensive rushing success rate, line yards and stuff rate. A near loss to Florida International was rooted in the Panthers ability to run the ball as they have posted a 57% success rate on 35 attempts.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

The Rich Rodriguez rush-heavy offense has been a staple of the Jacksonville State program since his arrival in 2022. The Gamecocks use inside zone more than just about any team in the country, as 83% of rushing attempts use the run concept.

Rodriguez does plenty during pre snap to get defenses to tip their hand, using no-huddle shotgun and motion on more than 50% of snaps. Jacksonville State plays with one of the quicker tempos in FBS, averaging 23.2 seconds per play for quarterback Tyler Huff and running back Tre Stewart.

The 3-3-5 leaves plenty to be desired in the advanced analytics, struggling to defend both the pass and rush.

The Gamecocks have struggled to create a pass rush, falling outside the top 100 in creating contested catches for opposing passing attacks.

The biggest issue for the defense comes in scoring position as they're bottom 25 in opponent points per possession on drives extending beyond the 40-yard line. Jacksonville State has given up an average of 4.3 points to drives that have entered the extended red zone.

Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State Pick

There are plenty of similarities between these offenses.

Both squads have mobile quarterbacks that are crucial to heavy rush rates, as both teams have heavy inside zone usage.

The handicap comes down to the defense that is able to show resistance between the tackles and that can create tackles in space at the second level.

Jacksonville State's poor metrics in defending the rush can also be attributed to a lacking performance against inside zone. Teams using the run concept have a 56% success rate against the Gamecocks, generating a big play on 11% of attempts.

Sam Houston should have success running between the tackles with Watson and Ducker using inside zone, as the Bearkats also have one of the lowest penalty rates nationally. The biggest issue for Sam Houston is a rank of 129th in finishing drives.

That number is reversed for a Jacksonville State team that's fifth in offensive finishing drives and 16th in red zone touchdown scoring.

The lack of rush defense for Sam Houston makes this a wager on the Gamecocks, as the poor efficiency numbers will translate to explosive plays for Jacksonville State. The Bearkat defense has just a 37% success rate against inside zone, giving up a high amount of explosives.

The Action Network projections make Jacksonville State a favorite of 7.5, giving way to a wager on the Gamecocks at number at a touchdown or less.

The projected total comes in at 55.5, providing no value to a market number of 56.

Considering Sam Houston's inability to defend any kind of rushing attack that uses inside zone, a Jacksonville State team total could also be in play.

Pick: Jacksonville State -6

Saturday, Nov. 23

3:30 p.m. ET

FOX

Kansas +3 · Under 59

The Big 12 has heated up through the past month of play, as Colorado (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) and Kansas (4-6, 3-4 Big 12) have ascended in the conference standings.

Both teams have combined to win 6 straight games, which could be higher concerning the Jayhawks.

With a new offensive coordinator to start the season, head coach Lance Leipold started the season with five consecutive FBS losses.

The second-order win total for Kansas will have indicators pointing sky-high in 2025, as the Jayhawks' 6 losses have come by an average of just 5 points. Leipold now has a lethal ground attack that has won 3 of 4, including the first loss for BYU in Provo last week.

Colorado also changed the coordinator position, as head coach Deion Sanders has seen a massive improvement in the defense. The Buffaloes have won seven of the last eight games, losing to only Kansas State with a post-game win expectancy of a coin flip.

Supported by 2 of the best players in college football, Colorado is in the hunt for a Big 12 championship and a bye in the College Football Playoff.

Colorado is a 2.5-point favorite on the road in Kansas City, where Kansas has played its conference home games in Arrowhead Stadium. This is a must-win game for a Jayhawks team looking to make a third consecutive bowl game. The over/under is 59.5.

Let's dive into my Colorado vs. Kansas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.

Colorado Buffaloes

While the college football world focuses on the outstanding play of two future NFL players on offense, Colorado's story is its transformation under defensive coordinator Robert Livingston.

The defense has improved in every facet at all three levels, generating a top-25 Havoc ranking and coverage grading.

A trio of edge rushers have been crucial to a rising defensive line with B.J. Green II, Samuel Okunlola, and Arden Walker combining for 74 pressures. However, the highlights from the defense have all come from the Heisman odds leader in corner Travis Hunter.

Outside of the nearly 600 snaps on defense and seven passes defended, Hunter is also the leader in targets on offense. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders has connected with Hunter 74 times this year to create an explosive 2.4 yards per route run. Sanders has been one of the most accurate passers in the nation, as Colorado ranks seventh in catchable ball rate, per Sports Info Solutions.

If there is an area where both the defense and offense have struggled, the explosive rush has created a rank outside the top 100 on both sides of the ball in expected points.

Kansas Jayhawks

In 10 games this season, Kansas has produced a second-order win total of 5.6, bringing its real record closer to 6-4 than its current 4-6.

The Jayhawks have been electric against the toughest competition the Big 12 can offer over the past month, beating BYU and Iowa State while suffering a two-point loss to Kansas State.

The offense has been humming on the ground, but the defense in Provo served BYU its first loss of the season.

The Cougars were held to no explosive drives and a disappointing 2.6 points on possessions crossing into scoring territory.  A critical play on a pooch punt was a positive break the Jayhawks needed for their season.

The rushing attack on offense has been a main contributor in the turnaround for Kansas.

New offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes uses a heavy amount of outside zone, allowing his tackles to clear the way for quarterback Jalon Daniels and running back Devin Neal. The Jayhawks have the 11th-most efficient rush offense in the nation, combined with the ability to overpower in short yardage situations with a top-10 number in stuff rate. More importantly, Kansas is third nationally in average rushing distance before first contact.

Colorado vs. Kansas Pick

The good news for Kansas on defense is a sporadic Colorado offense in rushing efficiency.

The Jayhawks have one of the worst Power Four rush defenses, evident by a rank of 124th in line yards. Colorado elects to use the rush on 42% of snaps, as the Buffaloes elect to pass the ball on first down at the 12th-highest rate in the nation. Sanders has been elite in passing this season, generating 22 big-time throws to just five turnover-worthy plays. Colorado has dominated against defenses showing Cover 3, but the Jayhawks lean to Cover 1.

Offensive Momentum Killer will play a large part in this contest — a metric that calculates interceptions, fumbles, missed field goals, sacks, and penalties.

Colorado brings a rank outside the top 100 in offensive momentum killer as opposed to Kansas at 15th in FBS.

There may be a hidden factor in the overall rush analytics that favors Colorado, as outside zone has been one of the best run concepts the Buffaloes have been able to defend. With the strength of the defense coming from numerous players in the rotation at edge, Colorado should throw road blocks to the Jayhawks' potent ground attack.

The Action Network Power Ratings call for Kansas to be favored by a point, giving the Jayhawks the nod at the current market. Considering the narrow margin of victory in every Jayhawks game, a buy to 3 is suggested at juice no larger than -120.

As for the total, Colorado may struggle to attack Cover 1, while Kansas' outside zone feeds right into the strength of the Buffaloes' defense. With 59 as one of the biggest keys in college football, an under is the play at Arrowhead.

Pick: Under 59 or Better · Kansas +3 (-120 or Better)

Saturday, Nov. 23

7:30 p.m. ET

NBC

Notre Dame -14

The Army Black Knights (9-0, 7-0 AAC) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) will clash on Saturday night in a neutral-site game at Yankee Stadium. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on NBC and Peacock.

The Irish are contending to make the College Football Playoff, currently in line to host a first-round game in South Bend if they can win their next two games.

Army is undefeated in its first season as an AAC member, earning a championship game spot on Friday, Dec. 6.

The next three weeks are crucial in determining a spot in the College Football Playoff, an AAC title and the Commander-In-Chief Trophy against Navy on Dec. 14.

Notre Dame opened as a 16-point favorite before early money on Army steamed the number to Irish -14. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.

Read on for my Army vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.

Army Black Knights

Army's advanced analytics come with an asterisk, having played the 133rd-ranked strength of schedule.

Its toughest opponents this season come in a trio of teams ranked just inside the top 100 of SP+ defensive rankings (Rice, Air Force and East Carolina). The best rush defense out of that group was Air Force in Week 8 when the Black Knights averaged 5.3 yards on the ground over 56 rushing attempts.

The better comparison would be the Falcons, another service academy with the triple option as a program staple. Army averaged 5.1 yards on 42 rushing attempts, generating five explosive runs.

Running back Kanye Udoh has been elusive and physical, averaging 3.4 yards after first contact with 17 attempts for double digits.

Quarterback Bryson Daily leads the team in rushing yards and has been integral to the triple-option attack. After missing the Air Force game with an "undisclosed injury or illness," the junior was back to full speed against North Texas.

Play action was used on just three offensive snaps against North Texas, a number that is expected to increase against Notre Dame.

The Black Knights defense has been excellent in limiting methodical possessions and opponents' scoring opportunities. Both Defensive Quality Drives and Finishing Drives numbers rank in the top five nationally, but stopping opponents' rushing attacks has been problematic.

Army is outside the top 100 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate, but a stiff secondary has limited explosives. The Black Knights are 46th in broken tackles allowed, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame continues to slice through opponents with a rank of 82nd in strength of schedule.

The Irish posted 50-burgers in recent games against Florida State and Navy, rushing behind an offensive line that's top-30 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has dominated with inside zone, creating a 55% Success Rate while mixing in other successful run concepts of man and counter.

Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard leads the offense with explosive running backs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love.

The offense ranks in the top 25 in Success Rate on first and second down, each with a heavy tendency to run the ball.

The Irish offense starts to sputter in known passing downs, posting a Success Rate rank of 91st thanks to a Passing EPA rank outside the top 100. If Notre Dame can stay in standard downs, defenses will continue to be pushed around in the trench.

Defensive coordinator Al Golden has created one of the best pass defenses in the nation, but the strategy for the secondary against Army will be the play-action pass.

Defensive backs will be asked to step up in the box and contribute against the triple-option ground attack.

The Irish limited Navy's ground attack earlier this season, allowing a Success Rate below the national average and limiting the Midshipmen to two explosive runs.

Army vs. Notre Dame Pick

Army has not been a pure triple-option team with Daily this season, mixing the same rate of man and outside-zone concepts.

Notre Dame has been ruthless against teams running outside zone, producing a 61% Success Rate while allowing an explosive on just one of every 20 attempts.

Those numbers are similar against man-run concepts, a signal that if Army wants to have success on offense, inside zone and play action must be in scope.

Notre Dame struggles against inside zone with a putrid 44% Success Rate. The good news for the Irish is Army's offense has utilized inside zone on just 11% of rushing attempts this season.

There's reason to think Golden will have the Notre Dame defense prepared for the play-action pass. Navy ran play action on six passing attempts in Week 9, as the Irish allowed just three receptions with an average depth of target of 13.2 yards.

On the other side of the ball, there is reason to believe there will be no resistance to the Notre Dame ground attack.

The Irish's heavy inside zone should see no resistance against an Army defense that has struggled to create any kind of efficiency against any run concept. The Black Knights have posted a 42% Success Rate against inside zone with a low big-play rate.

Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings project Notre Dame by 16 with a total just over the current market number of 45.

The Black Knights defense has yet to face an offense with this kind of firepower on the ground, already posting abysmal numbers against less potent rushing attacks.

Methodicals and explosives are expected on the ground, but with Army's slow style of play on offense, expect possessions to be limited.

The Black Knights average more than 33 seconds per play, potentially limiting the Irish offense to just seven possessions in the game.

Look to grab Notre Dame at the key number of two touchdowns, buying any hooks to -120 if needed.

Pick: Notre Dame -14 or Better

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