Score

First

I’m seeing a lot of Ole Miss love after last week, but I simply think Miami is the better team in every facet. I have the Hurricanes rated 3.7 points better than Ole Miss, which is right in line with the market. However, their trench advantage can win them any football game and will be something Ole Miss has not seen all season. Let’s get into this one. There has not been a more dominant defensive display than what we’ve seen from the Hurricanes during this run. They are on a three game stretch of holding Pitt to 7 points, Texas A&M to 3 points, and Ohio State to 14 points. That is about as impressive of a run as you’ll ever see. Miami’s defense ranks as the 7th best passing defense and the 10th best rush defense in the country, and they are also 8th at preventing explosive plays. That is a critical stat against an offense like Ole Miss. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels offense rank 6th in explosive play rate and live and die by the big play. Miami taking that away will significantly limit how much this offense can hurt you. Where the Miami defense really punishes teams is in the front seven. The Hurricanes have the best pass rush in the entire country with a 92.4 grade. This unit has lived in the backfield all season and consistently forces quarterbacks into bad mistakes. The Ole Miss offensive line is also not as good as many think. This unit ranks just 47th overall and is the 77th best rush blocking line. This sets up as Miami’s defensive line’s easiest test of the Playoffs. Chambliss has been playing on another level lately, but we have to remember Georgia had virtually no pass rush. The Bulldogs ranked a miserable 126th in pass rush grade, one of the worst marks in the country. Chambliss was not facing anything close to the pressure he will see against Miami. The Miami secondary is just as strong and will be ready to make Chambliss pay for any mistake, just like they did to Julian Sayin last week. The real weakness of this Ole Miss team comes on the defensive side of the ball. Their defense simply isn’t very good. The Rebels rank 34th overall and just 48th against the pass, which is not exactly the profile of a team one game away from a National Championship. Their front seven is in for a long night. Miami owns the best offensive line in the country, holding the No. 1 PFF pass blocking grade. This is a nightmare matchup for an Ole Miss defensive line that struggles to generate pressure. Carson Beck is a very solid quarterback and can do a lot of damage behind this Miami offensive line. Where Beck tends to struggle is when he’s blitzed or heavily pressured. Fortunately for him, Ole Miss blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the country. They blitz on just 27.2% of plays, which ranks 120th nationally. The Ole Miss pass rush is also nearly nonexistent. They rank 84th in pass rush grade and are 112th overall. This is where most of their defensive issues begin. Quarterbacks have all day to pick them apart, and I don’t see that changing against Miami. The Hurricanes rank 9th in passing offense and 8th in rushing offense, with much of that success driven by their elite offensive line opening lanes across the board. During the regular season, Ole Miss finished with 12 wins but only 10.6 post game win expectancy wins and 10.6 deserved wins (dWIN). That suggests the Rebels were a bit fortunate and may not be quite as good as their record indicates. The Georgia game last week is a perfect example. The Bulldogs largely controlled that game, but a few costly mistakes completely let Ole Miss back into it. Ole Miss ranks as the 9th luckiest team in the country in our college football luck metrics. That doesn’t mean their season was fluky, but they have clearly benefited from some favorable breaks. Six of their 12 wins came by one score. Meanwhile, advanced metrics show Miami is exactly as good as advertised. They sit at 11 wins with 11.1 PGWE wins and 12 dWIN. Miami may be the 10 seed in the Playoff, but this is one of the most talented and complete teams in the country. We also can’t ignore the chaos surrounding the Ole Miss coaching staff. Lane Kiffin has already left, and now multiple assistants are heading to LSU. Just this week, both the wide receivers coach and tight ends coach departed for Louisiana. This is something you almost never see during a College Football Playoff run. That’s now three coaches gone from the staff. While Ole Miss hasn’t shown the effects yet, it’s hard to believe that won’t matter at some point. Overall, Ole Miss is a very good team, but Miami is the more complete team with everything you look for in a National Championship contender. Give me the Hurricanes to cover and move on. I would try to get -3 here, but if you can't 3.5 is fine too.

CFB POD

Go Canes

Not only is this a brutal matchup against an elite Miami run defense, but it’s also a game where Ole Miss are 3.5 point dogs which means they could trail at a rate way higher than their season long rate (which would likely lower their rush volume overall. Projecting him closer to 17.5 rush att and closer to a median of 72.5 yards with around a 62% chance to stay under 83.5

#mao26

Fletcher had 17-172 vs Texas A&M and 19-90 against Ohio State, both better run defenses with better defensive fronts than Ole Miss. Play off Miami being favored. Hold Ole Miss OFF on the sidelines with consistent work to Fletcher. Advantage goes to Canes OL. Rebs 114th line yards and 118th in stuff rate. Writeup coming via Action Network.

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@_Collin1 https://myaction.app/KfA6GnGIJZb

@_Collin1 https://myaction.app/KfA6GnGIJZb

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Full Preview coming on Action Network

Full Preview coming on Action Network

Full Preview coming on Action Network

Full Preview coming on Action Network

Full Preview coming on Action Network

🇹🇹

This playoff run has been fueled, in part, by spite. Lane Kiffin’s absurd exit has motivated this team to play its best football, but it has also created an unprecedented distraction for Ole Miss’ coaching staff. Five assistant coaches, who remained with Ole Miss through their upset of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, are now down in Baton Rouge with Lane Kiffin as full-time LSU staffers. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is headed for LSU as well, but he’s worked out a deal with Kiffin and his Ole Miss bosses to remain with the Rebels until this playoff run is done. That kind of coaching brain-drain is significant. I believe these coaching issues will play a part in an Ole Miss loss, but it’s really the mismatch in the trenches that seals its fate. The Hurricanes have the nation’s best pass rush, a havoc-minded back seven, and a ball-hawking mentality (25 takeaways, 9th). Trinidad Chambliss has played at an All-American level this season, but he was bothered by disruptive fronts on two occasions (Wazzu, Florida). Wazzu’s pass got home three times while creating 11 pressures. Florida sacked Chambliss five times on ten pressures. As a double-digit underdog, the Gators led Ole Miss in the fourth quarter, and Wazzu nearly pulled off a seismic upset, falling by 3 as 33-point underdogs. The point being, if you can consistently pressure Chambliss with four rushers, the Ole Miss offense is containable. Defensively, Ole Miss should get bullied on the ground. The Canes just ran for 153 yards on an elite Ohio State run defense. Mississippi’s run defense ranks 65th and a troubling 92nd in Line Yards. Prior to a fourth-quarter injury, Georgia’s Nate Frazier was killing the Rebels on the ground (5.7 ypc). His absence on the final drive may have cost Georgia a shot at a national title. The Canes Mark Fletcher is in line for a massive game, which would be in line with his ascending play this season (6th-rated RB per PFF). The Rebels' magical season ends in Glendale. I would play Miami up to the edge of a full touchdown at -6.5.