Warriors vs. Celtics Odds & Betting Predictions - November 7, 2024

Wagons? (5-3 YTD)

White's covered in 2/2 w/o JB w/ 10 and 12 RA and he's covered in 3/4 since LS w/o JB/KP and w/ JT/Jrue - AVG 9.8 RA. In those four games, he's AVG 21.3 pRA, so he would just need to convert on roughly ~43% of those chances to cover this line. White covered in 2/2 vs. GSW last season w/ 10 and 11 RA and the two games were polar opposites (one was a 20 MIN blowout W and the other a 40 MIN OT game). L2 w/o JB 5/8 of his AST have been off made 3s - GSW is allowing the *highest* AST% on ATB 3s and rank league average in corner 3s. From watching last game as well, White ran 2-3 designed lobs for Queta/Kornet but couldn't connect. L2 w/o JB, White is AVG the 2nd most REB chances on BOS - AVG a 7.2 REB distance (missed 3s/long middy's). GSW take the 4th most 3PA in the league and that volume stayed consistent even w/o Curry. There's a good chance White guards Curry in this one since he's so good at navigating screens but other Warriors players will get 3PT shots up. BOS do switch everything though so I'm not expecting White to be attached to his hip

Revenge for Tatum after he was embarrassed on the USA National Basketball team from Warriors HC Steve Kerr.

White has cleared this line in 5 of 8 games this season, but gets a tough matchup tonight vs GSW. They have allowed the 2nd fewest threes per game this season and fewest to opposing shooting guards. White has been shooting just 41% from three this season. He projected to be shooting around 38%, so he's likely due for a little regression. Golden State is currently allowing the lowest 3-PT% as well (28.3%). Why? Well, their perimeter defense has been good. They rank as the 3rd best perimeter defense team in the league, only behind BOS and NYK. GSW ranks 2nd overall in team defensive efficiency, as well as on the road. This team has been more susceptible around the rim with the 14th most PITP allowed and 2nd most 2nd chance points allowed. This defense also doesn't allow points off turnovers and registered the 4th most steals per game (9.7). The trends people won't love this, but this looks like a nice spot to fade White.

The Celtics have been absolutely ridiculous in the 1st quarter this season. Boston has a silly 30.8 net rating in the 1st quarter through 8 games, in large part due to an insane 138.8 offensive rating. The Celtics led the league in 1st-quarter offensive and defensive rating last season. Their 16.9 1st-quarter net rating in 2023-24 was the best mark for any team in any quarter since 2017-18. Golden State is off to a good start, mostly due to stellar defensive play. They're 2nd in defensive rating overall and 2nd in the 1st quarter. The problem is the competition. The Warriors have played the Trail Blazers, Jazz, Clippers, Pelicans (twice), Rockets, and Wizards. Houston is 9th in offensive rating, but every other team in that group is 22nd or worse. The Rockets also hung 121 on them, though the Warriors got the win in overtime. Regression is coming for this Golden State defense. I'm expecting it to hit tonight.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/golden-state-warriors-vs-boston-celtics-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-nba-wednesday-november-6