Trail Blazers vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - January 22, 2025

Grant is over this line in 21/31 games on the season - AVG 14.84 PTS and 12.5 FGA. In games w/ Anfernee/Sharpe, he's over in 13/17 - AVG 14.76 PTS and 11.4 FGA. The volume he typically see's is great for this line and there's a chance Anfernee gets ruled out since he's questionable right now. Another edge I like here is that Sharpe was moved to the bench last game in a 6 man role, which opens up more USG/volume for starters - last game Grant saw a 21.4% USG%, which is a +1.6% increase on his AVG. In games Grant see's a 19%+ USG, he's covered this line in 15/19 games. MIA is a good MU for him as well - Grant leads POR in spot up scoring/volume and MIA allow the 4th highest spot up FREQ%. In games vs. T10 teams in spot up FREQ% w/ Anf/Sharpe, he's over in 1/1 (14 FGA). Overall, in games vs. the T10 regardless of who's available, he's covered this line in 7/8 games - AVG 15.0 FGA. In games Grant takes anywhere from 8-14 FGA, he's covered this line in 11/17 games and has the upside to see 14+ FGA given the MU. 12.5 line is also playable

The Heat take on the Blazers today and get a strong matchup against the league’s third-worst defense. Tyler Herro should find success in this matchup. Herro is averaging 24 points per game and dropped 32 against Portland 10 days ago. While Jimmy Butler is now back in the rotation, the interesting thing is that Butler has not had a discernable impact on Herro’s scoring. Herro sees just a 2.5% bump in scoring without Jimmy on the floor this season, per PBPStats. This matchup is also great for Herro. The Blazers have allowed strong performances to other opposing perimeter players such as Zach LaVine, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, and Cade Cunningham of late. I’ll grab Herro to exceed 22.5 points.

T. Rozier ⬆️ 2.5 Assists (-115 @ Fanatics) THE BOUNCE 📽️: 3.28 Assists Rozier gives us a very solid floor with assists, even with Jimmy back in the starting lineup. He has 2+ assists in each of his last 5 and he cleared this mark in 3 of those games. Even with Jimmy back, Rozier saw 30+ mins in his last game off the bench. He operates as the primary distributor off the bench now. In Rozier's last 3 with Butler, he has 5, 5 and 7 assists. Portland presents as a nice matchup, allowing the 8th most assists per game and 7th most to opposing PG's. Rozier is only averaging 6.1 potential assists per game over his last 10, but at a good conversion rate of 3.4 assists per game. Blowout, as with most games today, is a concern, but we just need 3!

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