Pelicans vs. Kings Odds & Betting Predictions - April 12, 2024

… team is the fav off a loss vs good team off a win Overall: 202-100-0,67% (ROI:15%) Season:39-11-0,78% (ROI:34%)

Grabbing this a point higher than the opening line for reduced juice. Lithuanian teammates Jonas Valanciunas & Domantas Sabonis will battle it out vs. each other in a pivotal game that decides their team’s playoff positioning. Jonas Valanciunas has cleared his points+rebounds line every matchup vs. Sabonis this season, averaging 26.3 points+rebounds across the four meetings. The advantage for Valanciunas lies in his guaranteed playing time due to Larry Nance Jr.'s absence, which means the Pelicans cannot afford to reduce his minutes to contain Sabonis in closing time. He averages 29.2 MPG without Nance Jr. compared to 21.9 MPG with him this season. I’m projecting somewhere between 20 to 30 MIN for Jo Val tonight. He averages 24.6 PR Per-25 MIN in the 614 sample size stretching 64 games without Brandon Ingram & Nance Jr. out. As for the matchup, when watching the film, I saw Valanciunas being able to post up Sabonis offensively without getting double-teamed. When grabbing rebounds, it’s less of a battle with Trey Murphy because he’s normally alone in the post while Trey’s defending Keegan. The only downside I see here is foul trouble, but you can never bank on that to happen. #PlayerProps

The Pelicans look to secure their fifth victory over the Kings this season. Yes, fifth. They are 4-0 and get an extra game because of the In-Season Tournament. The Pelicans are short road dogs here despite having a better Net Rating since the All-Star Break at (+5.5) compared to the Kings (+3.8), per NBA Advanced Stats. In each of the prior 4 matchups, the Pelicans won while scoring 117, 127, 129, and 133 points. Their offense dominated. All of those games had totals above 233.5 whereas this game is set at 217. To me, this is much more of a downgrade for the Kings’ offense without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter than it is for the Pelicans’ offense who will be without Brandon Ingram for the first time all season in this matchup. Ingram, Herb Jones, and Jonas Valanciunas are the only Pelicans to play in all 4 games while Zion (3), McCollum (2), Nance (2), and Murphy (2) all are joining the fold now. New Orleans’ offense has been stuck in the mud a bit over the past few weeks scoring just 111.9 points per 100 over the last two weeks while Sacramento’s defense has been strong allowing just 109.9 per 100. However, the Pelicans had that brutal stretch with two games against Phoenix, then games against Boston, Orlando, and Milwaukee. For Sacramento, they had a few impressive performances limiting the Mavericks, Clippers (without Kawhi), and Boston (who had already clinched the 1 seed) but they still lost to OKC, the Knicks, the Mavericks, and the Celtics. Additionally, this is being pulled down because they held Brooklyn to just 77 points as well. This matchup has gone well for the Pelicans this season and the loss of Ingram is mitigated due to the diverse offensive scoring options on the team. The Kings simply do not have a solid defensive option to slow down Zion and McCollum has performed well in this spot too. I expect them to exceed their team total of 107.5

#Tailing @TheBMatt