As the NBA regular season wraps up, it is critically important to evaluate schedule and seeding implications in all of the games being played to properly understand each teams motivation and urgency to win when analyzing the player prop market.
There are five NBA games scheduled for this Thursday, with 10 teams tipping off, and none of them come into the game on the second leg of a back to back — but all of them are starting one!
Every team in the NBA will play on both Friday and Sunday this week. Sacramento, Portland, and Boston are the teams who are home for both legs of the back to back set, the seven other teams playing Thursday will have a travel component before their game Friday.
Keeping in mind which games matter the most, let's dive into my top three NBA player props for Thursday, April 11.
The Bulls are going to play to win for seeding purposes, which means getting the vets some run in Caruso, White and DeRozan.
While Ayo has had an uptick in minutes recently, it has been in some games without Caruso and down some guard depth.
Now it is Ayo who is listed on the injury report as questionable with a quadriceps injury.
Despite playing north of 30 minutes in his last five games, Ayo has only cleared this points prop once and I expect a small minutes reduction in a low scoring game.
At only -115 juice, this is a value prop to grab the under.
Pick: Ayo Dosunmu Under 16.5 Points (-115)
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I have been backing CJ in a lot of recent prop overs recently, both in scoring and assists since he became more of a focal point of the Pelicans offense without Brandon Ingram and with Zion dealing with a finger injury.
However, now I believe the lines have overreacted to his strong play and should start to move the other way. The opening set line at five 3PM is way too high.
CJ will have Keon Ellis who is defensive menace on him for large stretches, as Fox will try and shade a shooter.
Expect CJ to be a passer and a driver, and Ellis to close out on those deep attempts. I think it's safe for CJ to attempt five or six 3-pointers, so getting under 4.5 is great value.
Pick: CJ McCollum Under 4.5 Made Three Pointers (-150)
One nickname that properly represents how Deandre Ayton has played recently is DominAyton!
Ayton is playing so many minutes, and taking on a sky high usage rate. In his last five contests, Ayton has played no less than 35 minutes and has only attempted less than 20 field goals once.
He will be lined up with rookie center Trace Jackson Davis or Draymond Green, both who will struggle to deal with Ayton's size.
Ayton can also pick and pop and be a good screen and roll option for Scoot Henderson. We are finally seeing the stat stuffing that I expected from Ayton all season, but I am happy to back it now for the final few games.
Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 24.5 Points (-106)
