Nuggets vs. Pistons Odds & Betting Predictions - March 1, 2025

PTP play

I’m okay with 15.5 as well but I did like the idea of grabbing 15+ at those prices in case Beasley just cooks from 3 and only from 3. The Nuggets have been decent defending the 3 ball in terms of what they have allowed; however, they are bottom 10 in 3 point percentage allowed. On a raw total basis, they allow the seventh-most 3s per game to their opponents. Beasley is averaging 16.7 points per game this season including 18.6 over his last 10. He’s exceeded this mark in 64% of games this season and 7/10. He is a prime candidate for 6th Man of the Year and I expect him to take care of business against Denver who is playing their second game in as many days.

77% hit rate when he plays 20-30 mins, which he’s done in 11 of L12, the 1 under he was in massive foul trouble & played 17 mins. He played 24 minutes & had 12 rebound chances & 7 potential assists in his matchup vs DEN earlier this season. Duren will be on Jokic, which means he’ll be busy contesting & in a bunch of PnR action, opening up others to grab boards. The Nuggets allow the 3rd fewest rebounds to C L15 as a result. The Nuggets also allow the 4th most assists to SF L15, love Ausar’s upside here as his role has increased as the season has gone on! I’d take O 4.5 rebounds as an alternative if your book doesn’t have RA at -130 or below 🚨

Ausar has been elite since being inserted into the starting lineup. 22+ minutes has been his floor lately without getting into foul trouble. Over in 16/20 games with 22+ minutes this season. Minutes should be very secure here with upside as he’ll be guarding Murray. Great matchup vs Denver. 7th-most PITP allowed on the season. Also a terrible assist defense. Solid spot for some rebounds as well with Duren guarding Jokic. Pace up spot, with Denver ranking 5th in pace on the season. Ausar should have plenty of opportunities here. Ausar will also have the fresher legs with Denver on the 2nd night of a B2B.