Nuggets vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - June 8, 2023

Nuggets at Heat

12:30 am • ABC

Denver Nuggets

4-1

109

109 - 94

Miami Heat

1-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nuggets 4-1	-3.5-110	o213-110	-165
Heat 1-4	+3.5-110	u213-110	+140

Thursday 12:30 a.m.

June 08, 2023

Kaseya CenterMiami

MIA -2.5 (4Q)-115

2.3u

MIA +185 (Live)

0.3u

MIA +3.5 (Live)-115

1.15u

G.Vincent o13.5 Pts-118

1.18u

He’s obviously scoring (15+ in 5/L8) - but he’s capitalizing from a more passive Butler, and DHOs from Bam. This series is a bad matchup for Caleb Martin, and Strus/Duncan will have their moments, but are super low usage. Vincent has been and should continue to be the third option here. Pending foul trouble, his minutes floor ceiling is roughly 32-38. TL,DR: he’s the Caleb Martin of this series

MIA +3.5-110

$55.00

J.Butler u6.5 Ast+100

Butler has cleared this in both Finals games. While his pass rate is slightly up, it hasn’t led to more potential assists. He’s banked on his teammates converting on 70% of his potential assists (52% on the season). Also expect him to shoot a bit more going forward which will only make it tougher for him to clear this number. Projecting this closer to -145

A.Gordon o0.5 Blk-110

0.5u

M.Strus o10.5 Pts-105

1.05u

Follow me on Twitter @Reno_Jonny All my plays are at VegasInsider.com

MIA +148

Under 213.5-105

DEN -3-105

M.Porter o7.5 Rebs+115

0.5u

365

M.Porter o9.5 Rebs+300

0.5u

365

Under 214.5-110

0.91u

J.Butler u2.5 Stl+Blk-129

Gave this out on Green Dot Daily Games 1-2 have avg. 87.9 poss./ per 48. DEN has 2nd best AST:TO ratio & only allowing 5.5 stl/g (#1). Under in 10 of 11 HOME games w/ PACE < 92.5 poss & 11 of 13 w/ PACE <92.5 & vs. team in top 10 in AST:TO. #PlayerProps

J.Butler u2.5 Stl+Blk-135

0.74u

@PropBomb

M.Porter o22.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-140

@ChrisRaybon

DEN -140

0.71u

Via Jay Money

K.Love o11.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-143

@ChrisRaybon

DEN -140

Don’t let me down now Jokic, don’t be scared

M.Strus o2.5 3pt M+150

19 3PA in 2 Finals games. Only shoots from 3PT with 73% of all shots in playoffs from behind arc. Should be closer to -110 based on volume and returning home. @wheatonbrando is on him for Finals MVP.

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M-115

1.15u

Bet at Bet365. Hit in 4/7 road playoff games and 21/31 (67%) road games during regular season. Good bounceback spot after being as high as -145 in G2.

K.Love o11.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-123

0.5u

Played 22 mins in Game 2 - 100% hit rate in the Playoffs with 20+ mins. Going half unit just because Spo’s rotations can get so wonky

K.Love o11.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-123

M.Porter o2.5 3pt M-113

B.Brown o3.5 Rebs-145

$72.50

DEN -140

G.Vincent o17.5 Pts+Ast-105

1.05u

Under 214.5-110

0.91u

Project 209 with FTN Model on FTNBets.com, equating to 60% probability and 7.6% edge

M.Porter o22.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-125

Regression play. 25+ PRA in 10-of-17 (59%) of playoff games, including 5-of-7 (71%) on road. Prior to Game 2, 25+ PRA in each of last 5g, 8 of last 9g.

K.Love o11.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

Played 22 min in Game 2. Has 15+ PRA in all 7 playoff starts with 20+ minutes. 14+ PRA in 9-of-15 (60%) of playoff starts overall,12+ in 67%.

Under 110.5 (1H)-115

0.87u

Finals 1H unders 59-43-3 (58%) since '05, including 32-17-2 (65%) in Eastern Conference venues and 28-13-2 (68%) in Eastern Conference venues from Game 3-on. First 2g 101, 108 (avg 104.5).

Under 215-120

$125.00

Under 110 (1H)-110

Under 214.5-110

J.Murray o24.5 Pts-125

0.8u

J.Murray o6.5 Ast-135

0.56u

He’s at 20 potentials per game and 10 assists per game with 5 of them going directly to Jokic. Line keeps climbing but I still like it.

J.Butler u25.5 Pts-105

1.05u

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-player-props-today-bet-jimmy-butler-nuggets-vs-heat-game-3-june-6

B.Adebayo o3.5 Ast-135

K.Love o4.5 Rebs-140

B.Adebayo o3.5 Ast-135

1.35u

Offense flowing thru him a lot. #1 on team twice so far in Passes Made (63.5) avg. 7.5 potential assists. Bam likes to bring the ball up, & is running plays at the nail to bring Jokic away from basket. DHO w/ Duncan too. #PlayerProps

K.Love o4.5 Rebs-130

1.3u

Made a huge impact in Game 2 after getting surprise start. 14 REB chances in 22 MIN. Bam will be hovering around to defend Jokic, leaving Love inside the paint. 5+ REB in 50/61 games playing 14-25 MIN. #PlayerProps

DEN -140

Under 110.5 (1H)-115

0.87u

@HPBasketball

Under 110 (1H)-110

DEN -2-112

0.5u

DEN -126

DEN -115

1.74u

DEN -115

1.74u

Outrageous opener - I thought this would be -3 My Game Guide: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nuggets-vs-heat-odds-pick-game-3-prediction-preview-nba-finals-june-7-2023

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NBA Public Betting

Heat are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Heat are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Heat are 24-14 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Heat' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 21 of Heat' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	40-39-3	16-25	24-14-3	23-21-3	17-18
Nuggets	38-42-2	21-19-1	17-23-1	33-37-2	5-5

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Heat	35-47	21-20	14-27	23-24	12-23
Nuggets	34-47-1	19-22	15-25-1	30-41-1	4-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	1-4	N/A	N/A	35-12	11-24
Nuggets	7-5	N/A	N/A	53-19	4-6

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 5th	@DEN	W 111-108	+8 W	O 216.5	MIA +270
Jun 2nd	@DEN	L 93-104	+8.5 L	U 218.5	DEN +290
May 30th	@BOS	W 103-84	+7.5 W	U 204	MIA +230
May 28th	BOS	L 103-104	+2 W	U 209	BOS +105
May 26th	@BOS	L 97-110	+8.5 L	U 215	BOS +250