Clippers vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - November 12, 2024

OKC has 4 of the top 8 defensive guards in the NBA, according to the NBA.com DefWS stat rankings Powell has hit his over 8 games in a row, and now not only has his line been lowered but it is also juiced to the under, because even Vegas knows Caruso, Dort, Shai and the best defense guard from last year’s draft class Cason Wallace will lock him up tonight In fact, the last 5 times Norman played in OKC… he played 30+ minutes per game, shooting 13+ FGA per game, and still stayed under 21.5 in all 5 of those games. Norman’s team got BLOWN OUT by the Thunder the last 5 times he played there, averaging a 16 point loss… and this year Thunder are top 5 in fewest points allowed to shooting guards, and top 6 in 3pt% allowed to shooting guards Take the under with us, and follow us on Instagram for more daily best bets https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCP7F0lyAIq/?igsh=YWNlMG93MGU3bzNz #PropBet

Harden is averaging 30.2 points & assists this season but the key for me is the matchup, as the Thunder have the top ranked defense in the league. They will be without Chet Holmgren for the near future, so it's possible we see this defense slip a little. Regardless, I like targeting Harden here because we're getting a number that is in line with his season averages but hasn't been discounted for the difficult matchup. I am going to avoid playing rebounds for Harden, as the Thunder already allow the most rebounds per game to opponents (49.5), and that could rise without Holmgren. Instead, let's target Harden's points & assists. The Thunder allow the 14th-most assists per game, so it's a neutral matchup in that department, but they allow the lowest field goal percentage in the league (41.%) and the 4th-lowest 3-point percentage in the league (33%). Ultimately, I'm hoping this elite Thunder defense can slow down Harden on offense while also slowing down his teammates to limit his assists. Playing this on Underdog where it’s available at 30.5 but also available on Sleeper too (going to log it there since Underdog isn’t available as a book).

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers are thriving, winning four games in a row with Zubac’s solid presence in the paint and Harden’s emerging playmaking. Thunder’s league-leading defense faces a setback with Holmgren’s injury, impacting rim protection and frontcourt depth. Oklahoma City, strong at 8-2 but fatigued from a recent loss to Golden State, may struggle against a rested Clippers team ranked top-five in defensive efficiency.

DK

Pine article play. Check the breakdown in the article over on X!

Chet is out indefinitely for OKC, which creates a huge disadvantage for them in the paint since all their bigs are hurt. In our case, this creates an edge when it comes to Harden assists since 71.1% of his AST come in the paint and they should abuse the PnR game with Zu. Harden covered this line in 7/10 games this season - AVG 17.1 RA. Earlier this season vs. OKC, Harden had 20 RA (13 REB and 7 AST). It's likely he see's regression in his rebounding but should see some positive regression in his AST. He's under in 3/L4, so we're getting a discounted line here but it's too low for the given MU. OKC are a T10 team in 3PA, which will create longer rebounds for guards - Harden had 13 REB chances vs. them (+1.2 on his season AVG). OKC rank #30 in REB and that's with Chet, they also rank league AVG in AST. This is also a pace up spot for LAC since OKC ranks #5 in pace and shouldn't be slowing down since they won't have any bigs now. Harden is 4/4 vs. T10 teams in pace, AVG 19.8 RA. For as many 3s as the Warriors take, ~70% of Curry's AST come in the paint and he recorded 7 AST (5.5 line) vs. OKC tonight w/o Chet and recorded 12 RA.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-best-bets-picks-predictions-props-monday-november-11

Chet Holmgren is out tonight, which means someone will have to step up on the glass for OKC. Holmgren leads the team by a decent margin in rebounds (8.7) and rebound chances (16.4) per game. Williams is 2nd with 6.2 rebounds on 10.8 rebound chances per game. He'll likely slide to center given the Thunder's lack of big man options. The matchup against Ivica Zubac and the Clippers is tough. They rank 3rd in rebounding rate. Zubac's 18.8% rebounding rate is one of the highest in the league. The positive is that Zubac is an interior player who operates close to the basket. The proximity to the bucket should improve Williams' rebounding opportunities. There's also a chance head coach Ty Lue opts for a smaller lineup. Zubac should crush on the offensive end, but he's in a tough spot on defense against this guard-centric lineup. Williams would have a much easier team against Batum, Coffey, etc.

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