Bucks vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - April 24, 2023

Markkanen MIP 🔮

Bam has cleared this in 2 of 3 games and averaging 4.3 assists/g in this series. However, the Heat have averaged 124 points/g in the series and have a team total of 105.5, so we can expect some regression here. Bam has also converted on 68% of his potential assists which is much higher than his season rate of 56%. Projecting this closer to -150

@HPBasketball

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In games where Giannis and Khris were both active this season, Jrue averaged 33.1 PRA per 36 minutes (across 25 games, 830+ mins). I expect Giannis’ presence to affect Middleton more than Jrue (but also don’t see Giannis getting both his full minutes AND full usage). Bucks down 2-1 - Jrue should see at least 38 minutes barring foul trouble (Bud has shown he’ll tighten his rotation in crucial games). And despite this series yet to have a game decided by less than 13 points, I do expect it to stay somewhat closer.

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Over adjustment to Giannis imo - over in 6/6 vs Miami averaging 14.8 ppg on 10 FGAs per game

Not understanding why this is + odds. MIA will need his playmaking. Herro OUT. Oladipo (25.2 AST%) OUT for rest of series. Lowry has recorded 4+ AST in 6 of L7 games w/o him & when playing 20+ MIN post-trade deadline. #PlayerProps

Must win for bucks, Giannis will come back and the #1 Seed in the East will come back hard. Data associated with pick aligns with my System 1 strategy.