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Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Live Underdog Early in Fight? (Saturday, July 30)

Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Live Underdog Early in Fight? (Saturday, July 30) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Drew Dober

Dober vs. Alves Odds

Dober Odds
Alves Odds
1.5 (-165 / +135)
American Airlines Center (Dallas)
Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

Fight fans likely expect fireworks when Drew Dober meets fellow lightweight  Rafael Alves on Saturday’s UFC 277 preliminary card.

Dober (24-11) and Alves (20-10) both look to build off recent victories as they move up the 155-pound ladder.

Which fighter has the edge? Let’s look at the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Dober Alves
Record 24-11 20-10
Avg. Fight Time 7:53 8:14
Height 5’8″ 5’8″
Weight (pounds) 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 70″ 68″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 10/19/1988 11/14/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.40 2.10
SS Accuracy 40% 47%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.23 3.56
SS Defense 52% 58%
Take Down Avg. 0.80 0.00
TD Acc 17% 0%
TD Def 53% 60%
Submission Avg 0.1 1.8

Alves is a dangerous fighter with an early finishing upside in any bout before fading in the second half of his matchups. Conversely, Dober is a master survivalist who outlasts opponents with superior cardio and durability.

As a result, Alves’s violence props (inside the distance, submission, win in round 1) and Dober’s late props or live bets are the best ways to wager on such a stylistic clash.

Alves carries enough power to stun Dober on the feet, but he’ll likely have to turn that opportunity into a club ‘n’ sub to secure the finish. And he’s a highly opportunistic grappler who can seize upon that chaos.

Alves might even be able to take down Dober (52% takedown defense) and go to work from there.

Dober vs. Alves Pick

I expect Alves to have frontloaded success in this matchup, but once the momentum flips and Dober takes over, it should be one-way traffic for the American.

Alves wins by submission (projected +343, listed +480 at Caesars), or Alves wins inside the distance (projected +225, listed +275) have my attention from a pre-fight betting perspective. I’m going to think about adding a position

However, the better angle may be to wait to play Dober live after Round 1, hopefully at a plus-money price, if he can survive the opening frame.

The Pick: Drew Dober Live after Round 1

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