Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Live Underdog Early in Fight? (Saturday, July 30)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Drew Dober
Dober vs. Alves Odds
Fight fans likely expect fireworks when Drew Dober meets fellow lightweight Rafael Alves on Saturday’s UFC 277 preliminary card.
Dober (24-11) and Alves (20-10) both look to build off recent victories as they move up the 155-pound ladder.
Which fighter has the edge? Let’s look at the matchup.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||7:53||8:14|
|Weight (pounds)||155 lbs.||155 lbs.|
|Date of birth||10/19/1988||11/14/1990|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||4.40||2.10|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||4.23||3.56|
|Take Down Avg.||0.80||0.00|
Alves is a dangerous fighter with an early finishing upside in any bout before fading in the second half of his matchups. Conversely, Dober is a master survivalist who outlasts opponents with superior cardio and durability.
As a result, Alves’s violence props (inside the distance, submission, win in round 1) and Dober’s late props or live bets are the best ways to wager on such a stylistic clash.
Alves carries enough power to stun Dober on the feet, but he’ll likely have to turn that opportunity into a club ‘n’ sub to secure the finish. And he’s a highly opportunistic grappler who can seize upon that chaos.
Alves might even be able to take down Dober (52% takedown defense) and go to work from there.
Dober vs. Alves Pick
I expect Alves to have frontloaded success in this matchup, but once the momentum flips and Dober takes over, it should be one-way traffic for the American.
Alves wins by submission (projected +343, listed +480 at Caesars), or Alves wins inside the distance (projected +225, listed +275) have my attention from a pre-fight betting perspective. I’m going to think about adding a position
However, the better angle may be to wait to play Dober live after Round 1, hopefully at a plus-money price, if he can survive the opening frame.
The Pick: Drew Dober Live after Round 1