Alex Morono vs. Matthew Semelsberger UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Any Value in Tailor-made Matchup for Favorite? (Saturday, July 30)
Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images/ Pictured: UFC welterweight Matthew Semelsberger
Morono vs. Semelsberger Odds
Matthew Semelsberger is the favorite heading into Saturday's UFC 277 matchup with fellow welterweight Alex Morono.
Although both fighters are riding winning streaks, oddsmakers favor the high-energy Semelsberger heading into the preliminary-card bout.
Let's jump into the matchup to see if that status is deserved.
Tale of the Tape
| Morono | Semelsberger | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-7 | 10-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:24 | 9:06 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/16/1990 | 11/23/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.21 | 5.01 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.93 | 4.55 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg. | 0.35 | 0.99 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 100% |
| TD Def | 53% | 42% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
While Morono has more MMA experience – and has faced a more challenging slate of competition than Semelsberger – the former could be at a severe athletic disadvantage in this matchup against a taller and longer fighter (2 inches of height, three inches of reach).
Semelsberger should be the bigger, faster and stronger athlete, and the striking output should be relatively similar.
Morono is likely the better grappler, and Semelsberger has shown deficiencies in takedown defense and fighting off his back.
However, Morono rarely shoots takedowns (0.35 per 15 minutes), and I don't trust his wrestling to get this fight to the mat.
Morono vs. Semelsberger Pick
I expect to see a striking fight where Semelsberger lands the more impactful shots, but Morono keeps the optics close throughout.
Morono wins by Decision (projected +216, listed +235 at BetRivers) was the only wager that stands out from a value perspective. And perhaps – with a takedown or two – the Texas native can extend his three-fight winning streak.
It's not something I'm inclined to stake significantly, however, at a slight edge and with the power optics and finishing upside all pointing toward Semsleberger.
The Pick: Pass
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