Twins vs. Tigers Odds & Betting Predictions - July 26, 2024

Twins at Tigers

10:40 pm • BSN

Minnesota Twins

40-42

9 - 3

Detroit Tigers

51-32

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Montero			4.76	6-6
P.Lopez			4.08	15-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 40-42	-1.5-112	o7.5-115	-188
Tigers 51-32	+1.5-108	u7.5-105	+158

Friday 10:40 p.m.

July 26, 2024

Comerica ParkDetroit

B.Buxton o1.5 Total Bases-110

MIN -1.5-106

0.94u

MIN -1.5-108

P.Lopez o18.5 Outs+150

P.Lopez u6.5 Ks+116

0.5u

Projection lands at 6.39 and a +ev pick giving us value at this number

MIN -160

0.31u

Flat to -175

MIN -165 (F5)

0.3u

Updated Price Target: -195. Risk 1u flat to -180 or 0.5u to -195

MIN -165 (F5)

0.3u

Update: Bet to -195, reduce risk past -180

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Featured Insight
The Tigers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this month -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB. The Twins have scored first in just 35% of their games this month -- fourth lowest in MLB.

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The Twins are just 3-8 (.273) after a win as underdogs this season -- tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.

Mark Canha is batting just .190 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- tied for 12th worst in MLB-- 11th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 25% of the time since last season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 105 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

Riley Greene is slugging .540 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- ninth best among hitters with at least 394 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 25% of the time since last season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 105 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has walked 9 of 224 left-handed batters (4%) this season -- 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% -- 93rd Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has walked 5 of 180 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Tigers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Tigers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Tigers are 20-21 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Tigers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 16 of Tigers' 42 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Tigers	45-38	25-17	20-21	30-23	15-13
Twins	45-37	23-16	22-21	28-24	16-13

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Tigers	41-38-4	16-23-3	25-15-1	25-25-3	15-12-1
Twins	35-43-4	18-20-1	17-23-3	24-26-2	10-17-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Tigers	51-32	28-14	23-18	37-16	14-14
Twins	40-42	22-17	18-25	28-24	12-17

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 25th	@CLE	W 3-0	+1.5 W	U 7.5	DET +124
Jul 24th	@CLE	L 1-2	+1.5 W	U 7	CLE +120
Jul 23rd	@CLE	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CLE +111
Jul 22nd	@CLE	W 8-2	-1.5 W	O 7	DET -140
Jul 21st	@TOR	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8	TOR +142

Alex Cobb
SP
Cobb is out with hip
Out
Jose Urquidy
SP
Urquidy is out with arm
Out
Ty Madden
SP
Madden is out with shoulder
Out

Royce Lewis
3B
Lewis is out with hamstring
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	97	7	7	2
RJ.Staumont, P	17	1	0	1
LC.Thielbar, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Castro, 2B	1-5	1	0	2
2B.Buxton, CF	2-5	1	1	2
3T.Larnach, LF	1-3	1	1	1
3M.Margot, PH	0-2	0	0	0
3M.Margot, LF	0-2	0	0	0
4R.Lewis, 3B	1-5	0	0	0
5M.Kepler, RF	1-5	1	0	0
6C.Santana, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7M.Wallner, DH	1-3	2	1	1
8B.Lee, SS	3-4	1	0	1
9C.Vazquez, C	3-4	2	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Montero, P	96	5	5	5
LJ.Wentz, P	43	2.1	3	2
RW.Vest, P	35	1.2	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Perez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
1A.Ibanez, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2J.Malloy, DH	0-5	0	0	0
3C.Keith, 2B	2-4	0	0	0
4M.Canha, LF	0-3	1	0	0
5M.Vierling, CF	1-3	0	0	0
6B.Madris, 1B	2-4	0	0	1
7C.Kelly, C	1-2	1	0	0
8G.Urshela, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Baez, SS	1-4	1	1	2