Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, July 26.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews
Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. Keider Montero (DET)
This seems to be Action Network’s favorite play for Friday’s slate. I heard Sean Zerillo discuss it on Friday's Payoff Pitch, and I couldn’t agree more with his always-apt analysis.
Minnesota is super scary in the American League. With rookie Brooks Lee in the lineup, the Twins are among baseball's more dangerous, dynamic offenses – they rank second to only Oakland (???) in wRC+ over the past month, posting a 10% barrel rate and .350 OBP during the stretch.
Byron Buxton is hitting more like his usual self of late (.359/.410/.717/1.1.127 since June 11), and although Carlos Correa is on the 10-day IL, Royce Lewis is supposed to make his much-anticipated return to the lineup for this Friday game.
I also believe the Twins bullpen is slightly undervalued. They’ve snuck up to eighth in reliever fWAR (3.1) behind Griffin Jax’s recent surge (1.89 ERA, 2.63 xFIP, 33% strikeout in his past 19 appearances). Jhoan Duran needs consistency (3.51 ERA, 3.51 xFIP) but still checks in with an average fastball velocity in the triple digits.
Additionally, the Twins had an off day on Thursday, so the bullpen is fresh and rested. Meanwhile, the Tigers deployed their four highest-leverage relievers in a 3-0 win over Cleveland on Thursday – Jason Foley, Andrew Chafin, Shelby Miller and Tyler Holton. Chafin is my favorite among the group, and he’s surely unavailable after tossing on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.
The Twins are also a rock-solid defensive team, ranking fifth in Outs Above Average (+19) and ninth in Defensive Runs Saved (+33).
Minnesota has an excellent all-around baseball team. The weakest unit on the team might be the rotation, but that’s only because they’ve been underperforming (4.39 ERA, 3.72 xFIP).
Chief among the underperformers, Pablo Lopez pairs a 4.86 ERA with a 3.39 xERA and 3.15 xFIP. Over the prior three seasons, the former Marlin pitched to a 3.57 ERA, and projections think he'll finish the year closer to those marks.
Lopez won’t wow you with stuff, but he pairs league-average stuff (98 Stuff+) with elite command (104 Location+), which has only improved as the season has progressed (111 Location+ over the past month, second only to Kutter Crawford during the stretch).
Also encouraging is that he posted his highest average fastball velocity of the season in his most recent start (95.3), tossing seven innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts against the ever-dangerous Brewers.
You have to respect that sweeper:
I think the Twins are extraordinarily undervalued, even as big road favorites. They’re among the best teams in baseball. I took some AL Central and World Series futures on them during the All-Star break.
Conversely, the Tigers are playing decent ball but will be disadvantaged in every phase on Friday. For example:
- The Tigers have a 96 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the season and a 101 mark over the past month behind a brutal batted-ball profile (35% hard-hit rate, 38% pull rate).
- The Tigers rank closer to league-average in Defensive Runs Saved (+22, 13th) and Outs Above Average (+5, 11th).
- The Tigers bullpen is way overextended.
- Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero has a negative fWAR (-0.1) behind earned run indicators in the fives (5.97 ERA, 5.09 xERA, 5.51 FIP, 4.38 xFIP).
I’m all over the Twins on Friday.
Bet: Twins ML (-165, Caesars)
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR)
In my most recent Bettor’s Notebook column, I mentioned how Yusei Kikuchi is surprisingly the second-least profitable starting pitcher on the ML this season, only ahead of Chris Flexen (2-17, -12.9 units, -68% ROI).
The Jays are holding him back. Kikuchi looks great, upping his stuff profile (career-high 110 Stuff+ mark across his arsenal) behind some added fastball velocity (96 mph on average, 16” iVB, 118 Stuff+ mark). His 4.54 ERA looks rough, but I believe his 21% strikeout minus walk rate and 3.32 xFIP are more indicative of his true talent. He's also getting unlucky with a .334 BABIP, compared to his .308 career mark.
Kikuchi could struggle to battle the Ranger bats, which obliterate southpaws (145 wRC+ against the side over the past month). Still, I think Toronto’s lefty is undervalued.
I don’t feel as good about Andrew Heaney, but he’s always been a one-to-two-win pitcher. He’s on pace for a career-best year (1.6 fWAR through 100 innings and 19 starts) behind better command (7% walk rate) and some extra chases (career-high 32% chase rate).
I believe the Jays are undervalued in the batter’s box, but they’ll be in their worst split on Friday. Toronto’s posted a 98 wRC+ (14th) against righties this season, compared to an 86 mark against lefties (26th).
I despise both bullpens, but both units are reasonably rested. Yimi Garcia recently returned for the Jays, a huge boost to that unit given he’s the only reliable reliever on the staff (2.70 ERA, 2.27 xERA, 3.03 xFIP, 37% strikeout, 0.8 fWAR). Meanwhile, Kirby Yates has been on fire for the Rangers (1.31 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, 42% strikeout rate, 11 saves over his past 20 appearances).
Editor's Note: The Blue Jays traded reliever Yimi Garcia to the Mariners on Friday afternoon, per Jeff Passan.
We can always fall back on two trusted defenses if all else fails. The Blue Jays lead MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (+85) behind the elite defensive outfield duo of Daulton Varsho (+29 DRS) and Kevin Kiermaier (+18). Meanwhile, the Rangers lead the league in Outs Above Average (+35) behind the best defensive second baseman in baseball, Marcus Semien (+14).
The Action Network projects this total under 7.5, so I think under 8.5 (or a cheap 8) is a solid wager. Even with some concerns, there’s enough evidence to support a lower-scoring affair.
Bet: Under 8.5 (-120, BetRivers)
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs Kodai Senga (NYM)
Citi Field typically plays like a pitcher’s park, holding the fifth-lowest Park Factor over the past three seasons (97), including the second-lowest double factor (86). With winds blowing in from left field at first pitch on Friday, BallParkPal’s weather model projects a -10% Run Factor for this affair, including a -17% Double Factor.
Kodai Senga makes his much-awaited season debut. He struggled in his three Triple-A rehab starts, but let’s not forget how dominant he was in his rookie season – that ghost forkball is an obscene pitch.
He made one start against the Braves at home in mid-August, throwing six innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts. I feel good about him replicating that performance against a dumbed-down Atlanta lineup that continues to underperform without Ronald Acuna Jr. (83 wRC+ against righties over the past month, 27th).
Conversely, I’m never sure what to expect from Charlie Morton. With his stuff profile dipping, his game is becoming more command-dependent. He’s not Ground Chuck anymore, but his 47% ground-ball rate is nothing to balk at, and that should play again in a pitcher’s park – Morton’s allowed just one run in his past 12 innings at Citi Field.
Although the Mets’ red-hot offense scares me, I’m still inclined to bet the under based on these two rock-solid bullpens. The Braves rank third in bullpen xFIP on the year (3.66), while the Mets rank fifth (3.77). Over the past month, Atlanta has posted the league’s lowest reliever SIERA (2.67) behind a 30% strikeout rate, while the Mets rank fifth behind a 32% strikeout rate.
There are some usage concerns. But Jose Butto’s 40-pitch relief outing on Thursday means New York should have Dedniel Nunez (2.43 ERA, 2.41 xFIP, 35% strikeout) and others available. Meanwhile, I believe the Braves can deploy Raisel Iglesias and Joe Jimenez for the second straight day, considering they hadn’t pitched in the four prior days, meaning their primary Iglesias-Jimenez-Aaron Bummer-A.J. Minter quartet is intact for Friday.
The projection market makes this total between 7.02 and 7.33, so any cheap 7.5 is good for me.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105, BetRivers)
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs Kyle Harrison (SFG)
I’m writing a piece for Pitcher List on Kyle Harrison, attempting to explain how he’s been so effective with his low-stuff, low-velocity fastball.
Harrison’s four-seamer checks in at 92 mph with almost no ride (9.5” iVB, third percentile) and a 96 Stuff+ mark. He also throws it mainly up in the zone (62% high-location rate, 85th percentile). A low-stuff, low-velo fastball in the upper third should be a gift for most hitters.
Yet, Harrison has amassed +11 Run Value on the pitch this year, the 10th-most among MLB four-seam fastballs. What’s up with that?
The long and the short of it is that by keeping his release point lower (4.9 feet, first percentile), Harrison keeps his Vertical Approach Angle flatter (-4.2 degrees, 90th percentile). A flatter approach angle on higher fastballs equates to more whiffs, as hitters have fewer intersection points on their swings compared to a normal swing against a normal four-seam fastball coming in with a normal approach angle (around 6.5 degrees).
Opposing batters are hitting just .237 with a .310 wOBA against Harrison’s heavily used four-seam, putting it on the ground over 40% of the time. That could be a problem for the Rockies, who struggle mightily against upper-third four-seam fastballs.
| Rockies Stat vs Elevated FF | Mark | MLB Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| xBA | .182 | 26th |
| xwOBA | .290 | 24th |
| Strikeout Rate | 35.3% | 28th |
| Whiff Rate | 35.8% | 29th |
| Avg. EV | 88.2 mph | 23rd |
Behind Harrison is a mostly-rested Giants bullpen that I generally find undervalued, pairing a 4.38 reliever ERA (26th) with a 3.66 reliever xFIP (fourth). A unit led by Camilo Doval, Ryan Walker and the Rogers Bros. should be better than their surface-level statistics.
San Francisco’s run-prevention unit should handle a hapless Rockies lineup (84 wRC+ against righties, 28th) that should struggle even more going from a hitter’s park in Denver to a pitcher’s park in the Bay – Oracle Park boasts the league’s fourth-lowest park factor (97) and lowest home run factor (80).
Conversely, I have little faith in Kyle Freeland, a close-to-replacement-level pitcher (0.6 fWAR in 48 innings) with expected run indicators close to 4.5 (5.63 ERA, 4.70 xERA, 4.29 FIP 4.49 xFIP) and not much stuff (82 Stuff+ across his arsenal).
Of greater importance, the Giants are a much better lineup against southpaws (115 wRC+, sixth) than against righties (97 wRC+, 17th). They can stack eight righties in their lineup, which should put more pressure on Harrison and his rough platoon splits.
| Kyle Freeland Stat | Career vs. LHP | Career vs. RHP |
|---|---|---|
| SLG | .418 | .464 |
| wOBA | .320 | .345 |
| K-BB% | 16% | 7.7% |
| WHIP | 1.32 | 1.45 |
| FIP | 3.78 | 4.81 |
| xFIP | 3.91 | 4.79 |
Harrison faced the Rockies last week and tossed five shutout frames with six strikeouts. Freeland faced the Giants last week and allowed three runs in six frames, including a bomb to the red-hot Tyler Fitzgerald (10-for-28 with five homers across his past seven games, including six walks to six strikeouts, suitable for a .455/.571/.747/1.318 slash).
I expect more of the same on Friday, especially considering Colorado’s inconsistent bullpen (0.2 fWAR, 5.60 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 11% walk rate).
Bet: Giants ML (-185, bet365)
McGrath's Best Bets for Friday, July 26
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App (@tannerstruth).
- Braves vs Mets Under 7.5 (-105, BetRivers)
- Giants ML (-185, bet365)
- Rangers vs Blue Jays Under 8.5 (-120, BetRivers)
- Twins ML (-165, Caesars)
