Tigers vs. Rangers Odds & Betting Predictions - June 27, 2023

Tigers at Rangers

12:05 am • BSSW

Detroit Tigers

10-10

7 - 2

Texas Rangers

12-11

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Heaney			4.15	10-6
M.Boyd			5.45	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Tigers 10-10	+1.5-115	o9-110	+165
Rangers 12-11	-1.5-105	u9-110	-200

Tuesday 12:05 a.m.

June 27, 2023

Globe Life FieldArlington

TEX -1.5-105

2.1u

DET +1.5-112

Would take up to -120

M.Boyd u5.5 Ks-140

0.71u

DET +170 (F5)

1.28u

Bet365 1:00 pm EST.

A.Heaney u6.5 Ks-125

0.8u

A.Heaney u6.5 Ks-128

After last season where his K% and whiff% shot up, Heaney is back down to his career average levels (24.6% K%, 11.1% swinging strike rate). He’s under this line in 11/14 starts, including each of his L6, and 7/8 at home. DET hasn’t faced many lefty pitching of late (only 141 PAs over the L30 days), but their league low 15.6% K% and slightly above average wRC+ of 101 is promising. 10/L11 lefty starters have stayed under this line.

J.Jung o1.5 Total Bases+107

$47.00

C.Seager o1.5 Total Bases+106

Sexy home splits, 2 straight going under

Under 9-114

@studyhallsharp Tail

M.Boyd u5.5 Ks-128

0.86u

Available at FanDuel. Boyd has gone over this number in three of his past four and four of his past six starts, which may make it odd to be willing to lay -128 on the under. But this matchup is brutal. The Rangers have a 136 wRC+ against lefties, and they strike out just 20.1% of the time. When they faced Boyd in Detroit on May 29th, they drew four walks and scored five runs in six innings, and Boyd went under by a half strikeout. Boyd's pitch count also hasn't been super big as he has failed to hit 90 pitches in all but one of his past nine starts. He's got two paths to an under, so even if this bet hasn't hit a ton recently, I still like its odds of hitting tonight.

A.Heaney u6.5 Ks-112

0.89u

Available at FanDuel. Heaney hasn't been as much of a strikeout pitcher this year, and he's facing a team with a 21.0% strikeout rate against lefties this year. Heaney has failed to hit the over on this number in six straight games, and he has gone over in just 3 of 14 overall this year. Even in 7 starts with his slider usage back up, Heaney's strikeout rate is still just fine at 24.5%. The Tigers aren't great against lefties, but they're better than they are against righties, and they don't strike out a ton. I just think this number leans a bit too much on Heaney's old style where it was strikeout or bust.

Under 9.5-122

0.5u

Bet to 9 (-115)

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See more MLB Coverage

The Rangers are 45-1 (.978) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .948.

The Tigers are just 8-35 (.186) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Tigers are just 5-8 (.385) after a road win this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.

41% of Robbie Grossman strikeouts are looking this season -- third highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. 41% of Jose Cisnero strikeouts are looking this season -- 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Corey Seager has a swing rate of 46% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- ninth highest among hitters with at least 114 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Opponents are hitting .552 (16-for-29) against Matthew Boyd on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- second worst among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP-- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tigers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rangers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tigers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rangers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tigers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 25th	@NYY	L 3-5	-	-	-
Jun 24th	@NYY	L 0-1	-1.5 L	U 9	NYY -148
Jun 23rd	@NYY	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	TEX -110
Jun 22nd	@CWS	W 6-3	-1.5 W	U 9.5	TEX -106
Jun 21st	@CWS	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 8.5	CWS -160

Alex Cobb
P
Cobb is out with hip
Out
Jose Urquidy
P
Urquidy is out with arm
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Boyd, P	13	0.2	2	1
RW.Vest, P	19	1	3	0
RM.Englert, P	41	2.1	4	1
LT.Alexander, P	40	3	4	0
RJ.Foley, P	12	1	2	0
LT.Holton, P	22	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Vierling, CF	3-5	2	0	0
1M.Vierling, RF	3-5	2	0	0
2S.Torkelson, 1B	0-4	1	0	0
3A.Ibanez, RF	2-4	1	1	3
3J. Marisnick, CF	0-1	0	0	0
4J.Baez, SS	0-4	0	0	1
5E.Haase, LF	1-4	1	0	0
6J. Schoop, 3B	0-2	0	0	1
6Z.McKinstry, PH	0-1	0	0	0
6Z.McKinstry, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
7M. Cabrera, DH	2-3	1	0	0
8J.Rogers, C	2-3	1	1	2
9Z.Short, 2B	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LA.Heaney, P	101	5.2	5	6
LB.Burke, P	27	1.1	1	1
RY.Rodriguez, P	26	1.1	1	0
LC.Bradford, P	13	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Semien, 2B	2-4	1	1	1
2C.Seager, SS	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Jung, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4A.Garcia, RF	1-4	1	1	1
5N.Lowe, 1B	2-4	0	0	0
6J.Heim, C	1-4	0	0	0
7M.Garver, DH	0-3	0	0	0
8E.Duran, LF	2-4	0	0	0
9L.Taveras, CF	0-4	0	0	0