Reds vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - August 25, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Projections lean to a lower-scoring game than expected due to the offensive struggles of both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Pittsburgh checks in 22nd in runs per game, averaging 4.15, and a lowly 27th in OPS. Cincinnati isn't much better, sitting in 17th for runs per game with 4.43; they are 25th in OPS at .692. These anaemic offensive showings suggest that each of these teams shall struggle to be able to find a way to get this game to eclipse an 8.5-run total. Add the effect of starting pitchers, who also can do their part in holding the scoreboard down. Nick Martinez, son of the Reds, has an xERA of 3.22, putting him in the 81st percentile of all starters. Thanks to a 31.4% Hard Hit% and a meager 86.6 mph average exit velocity, he is able to induce weak contact, crucial against a Pittsburgh lineup that has shown limited power at home since the start of 2021, averaging only 4.17 runs per game, 25th in the league. Luis Ortiz has really flashed some brilliance, showcasing potential when down in the zone, led most by a velocity in his heater in the 73rd percentile and a ground ball rate in the 58th percentile, both which lend themselves to run prevention. Ortiz has struggled this August, but his work prior to that, namely against Cincinnati where he allowed only one run over six innings, suggest he can keep Cincinnati's uninspiring offense at bay. Pittsburgh is sixth-best in errors defensively, yet another factor helping Ortiz keep the score down. That also brings in the ballpark factor, with PNC Park and expectations here being for a low-scoring game. Home plate umpire David Rackley here toward unders, with a 64.2% strike percentage. The bullpens are equally decent, with Pittsburgh putting up a 3.91 ERA, a 12th-place standing in the bigs, and Cincinnati's bullpen not far behind, holding a 4.01 ERA. That power in the bullpens also should support making the under, as late-game run-scoring will be kept at a minimum. Combining the two teams, they've been bad at situational hitting, including swinging the stick with runners in scoring position, decreasing those odds. Splits against bullpens lend further proof for the under as a solid play. The Reds are slashing just .227 against right-handed relievers, while the Pirates check in at .232. When you take into consideration that both clubs likely will face a right-hander that's been high-leverage effective, there really isn't that much to bank on as far as a late-inning offensive surge. Key in keeping the under: games oftentimes inflate their scoring totals from the bullpen. The worst recent form is mediocrity for key hitters on both teams. If looking at Cincinnati partners outside of De La Cruz's productivity, one seems to come up with inconsistency in the extended lineup, including doing worse against right-handed pitching. Jonathan India and Spencer Steer are major critical middle-in-the-order bats who have been inconsistent, contributing to lower scoring. On the Pittsburgh side, key players with major stakes in run production there, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen, were at times slipping off their offensive output in clutch situations.