Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Sunday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, August 25.
MLB Predictions Sunday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 25)
BJ Cunningham's Rockies vs. Yankees Predictions, Pick, Preview
Austin Gomber vs. Marcus Stroman
With these starting pitchers on the mound, the total shouldn't be this low.
Austin Gomber has been terrible for the Rockies and has an xERA around five. If you're someone like Gomber who doesn't have a lot of velocity, you either have to be effective at getting guys to chase off-speed pitches out of the zone, or you have to be able to generate a lot of soft contact. Gomber is doing neither, which is why he's getting shelled.
(Image via Baseball Savant)
Gomber only averages 90.5 mph on his fastball, which he's throwing 41% of the time and allowing .409 xwOBA on it. The Yankees have a .396 xwOBA against left-handed fastballs that are 93 mph or slower, so they should hammer Gomber Sunday.
Marcus Stroman is very overvalued as a starting pitcher. His ERA is 3.82, but his xERA is 4.86. Stroman hasn't been good because of his sinker, which he throws 35.2% of the time. It doesn't have much velocity, it's only averaging 89.9 mph, and has a 94 Stuff+ rating.
Stroman has had good results in his past two starts against the Rangers and Tigers, but his xFIP has been over 4.5 in both of those starts, which suggests he's still not very effective.
Both of these bullpens are also in the bottom 10 of baseball by xFIP, so there should be plenty of runs in this game. I have 10.2 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 8.5 runs at -115.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-115 via Bet365)
BJ Cunningham's Angels vs. Blue Jays Predictions, Pick, Preview
Tyler Anderson vs. Kevin Gausman
Tyler Anderson is starting to see some of the regression he's due for. He has a 3.46 ERA, but his xERA is 4.19 and his xFIP is even higher at 4.78. Like most starting pitchers, he throws his fastball, which only averages 89.3 mph, up in the zone well over 50% of the time.
He has a high amount of induced vertical break, but when you are throwing it so slowly, it doesn't matter. Opposing hitters have a .363 xwOBA against his fastball, which is a big problem since he throws it almost 40% of the time.
Anderson also has some control issues. He has a high walk rate and a Location+ rating below the league average. He faced Toronto on August 14th and got roughed up as he allowed seven runs on six hits. He also walked four batters.
Kevin Gausman is having his worst season since he moved to Toronto and has put up a 4.96 xERA. His main problem is that his strikeout rate has taken a pretty big dip going from 31.1% last season to 21.4% this season.
The main reason for that is that his stuff has fallen off. Last season, he had a 105 Stuff+ rating, but now he's down to just 94. That said, his command hasn't fallen off. He still has a 105 Location+ and Pitching+ rating, which suggests he is simply learning how to pitch with less velocity and movement.
Both of these bullpens are in the bottom 10 of baseball by xFIP, Stuff+ and Pitching+ over the past 30 days.
I have 9.4 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 8 runs at -112.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (-112 via DraftKings)
BJ Cunningham's Giants vs. Mariners Predictions, Pick, Preview
Robbie Ray vs. Bryan Woo
Robbie Ray has come back stronger than ever from his injury. In six starts this season, he's posted at 3.64 xERA. Additionally, he's averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball, which is almost a full mph faster than he was throwing in 2022. What has been ever more impressive is his off-speed pitches. Ray's slider and knuckle curve were graded at below average by Stuff+ in 2022, but now both of those ratings have shot up well above 100. Both of those pitches have been incredibly effective at generating swings and misses with him utilizing them down and away to righties, which has allowed him to have over a 46% whiff rate on both pitches.
The Mariners have been terrible against left-handed pitching this season and only have a 90 wRC+, which ranks 24th in baseball.
Bryan Woo is maybe the most underrated pitcher in baseball. He has a 2.32 xERA, which is the lowest expected ERA in baseball for all pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings. So, how is he doing it?
He's doing is mainly with a fastball and sinker. His fastball has been dominant because it's really deceptive. Woo has the lowest vertical approach angle of anyone in baseball on his fastball and primarily throws it up in the zone with a low of run on it. That allows hit to get on top of opposing hitters and not allow a ton of hard contact. He also uses a ton of different grips on his fastball, which makes him even more difficult to hit.
What makes Bryan Woo so dominant? Did you know he has several different fastball grips?
Pitching Ninja breaks it all down pic.twitter.com/7cXS1K6PUW
— Marine Layer Podcast (@MarineLayerPod) June 8, 2024
The Giants are very average against right-handed fastballs and are well below league average on right-handed fastballs up in the zone.
Over the past 30 days, both of these bullpens have been excellent. They are both top 10 in xFIP, Pitching+ and Stuff+, so this should be a really low-scoring game. I only have 6.7 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 7.5 runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-115 via FanDuel)
