Reds vs. Mariners Odds & Betting Predictions - April 16, 2024

Reds at Mariners

1:42 am • BSOH

Cincinnati Reds

13-14

3 - 9

Seattle Mariners

10-17

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Kirby			3.53	14-11
F.Montas			5.01	4-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 13-14	+1.5	+1.5-180	o7-115	+120
Mariners 10-17	u7.5	-1.5+150	u7-105	-142

Tuesday 1:42 a.m.

April 16, 2024

T-Mobile ParkSeattle

SEA -150

$1.00

SEA -1.5+146

0.73u

SEA -147

0.68u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-140

$1.40

SEA -150

Terrorist Kirby Day

G.Kirby u6.5 Ks+110

1.1u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-135

1.35u

G.Kirby u17.5 Outs+125

F.Montas u5.5 Ks-108

0.46u

Ballpark pal projects 4.81 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -131 giving value to this number

SEA -150

G.Kirby u6.5 Ks+110

0.55u

Ballpark pal projects 6.01 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -120 giving value to this number

Under 7.5-110

0.55u

CIN +132 (F5)

0.5u

While I expect George Kirby to be better than his lsat two starts and eventually locate better, Franke Montas has been competent with estimators averaging just below four and the Mariners can't hit RHP (69 wRC+, 31.5 K%). While that first number is bound to improve, where at a point where strikeout rates are beginning to stabilize.

Under 7.5+100

0.5u

Bet to -103

SEA -140 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -155

Featured Insight
Reds have a strikeout rate of 26% over the last week -- third highest in MLB. Mariners have struck out 29% over the last week -- second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Mariners have allowed just 2.3 runs per game while trailing since the 2022 season -- third lowest in MLB (228 games). The Reds have scored just 2.5 runs per game while leading since the 2022 season -- ninth lowest in MLB (226 games).

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The Reds are 29-20 (.592) after a road win since the 2023 season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .493.

Jeimer Candelario slugged .580 on fastballs last season -- 12th best in MLB-- 91st Percentile. George Kirby threw fastballs 61% of the time last season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Cal Raleigh struck out in 28% of PA's last season -- tied for 12th highest in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Fernando Cruz had a strikeout rate of 35% last season -- eighth highest among qualified RPs-- 96th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mariners are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mariners are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mariners are 33-48 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mariners' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Mariners' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	69-93	36-45	33-48	44-69	24-22
Reds	82-78	40-39	42-39	29-43	53-34

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mariners	88-68-6	41-35-5	47-33-1	58-49-6	28-18
Reds	58-91-11	26-45-8	32-46-3	20-47-5	37-44-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	90-72	51-30	39-42	66-47	22-24
Reds	83-79	44-35	38-43	39-33	43-44

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 14th	CHC	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 7	CHC -142
Apr 14th	CHC	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	CHC +120
Apr 13th	CHC	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8	SEA -130
Apr 10th	@TOR	W 6-1	-	U 8.5	SEA +100
Apr 9th	@TOR	L 3-5	-1.5 L	U 8.5	TOR -108

Noelvi Marte
OF
Marte is day-to-day with side
Day-to-Day
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with groin
Out
Chase Burns
P
Burns is out with hip
Out
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Montas, P	66	2	1	5
RN.Martinez, P	56	4	3	1
RB.Farmer, P	40	2	3	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2W.Benson, CF	2-4	0	0	0
3C.Encarnacion-Strand, 1B	2-4	1	0	0
4S.Steer, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Fraley, RF	2-4	1	1	2
6E.De La Cruz, SS	0-4	0	0	0
7J.Candelario, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
8N.Martini, DH	0-3	0	0	0
9T.Stephenson, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Kirby, P	89	6	6	2
LG.Speier, P	11	1	1	1
RT.Miller, P	9	1	0	0
LT.Saucedo, P	13	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Crawford, SS	0-4	1	0	0
2J.Rodriguez, CF	1-4	2	0	0
3J.Polanco, 2B	1-3	3	1	3
4M.Haniger, DH	2-3	2	1	3
5T.France, 1B	1-3	1	0	1
6C.Raleigh, C	1-3	0	0	0
7L.Raley, RF	2-4	0	0	1
8J.Clase, LF	1-4	0	0	1
9J.Rojas, 3B	1-4	0	0	0