Reds vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - May 31, 2024

Reds at Cubs

6:20 pm • MARQ

Cincinnati Reds

16-13

5 - 4

Chicago Cubs

17-12

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Assad			3.74	7-6
G.Ashcraft			5.24	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 16-13	+1.5-175	o8.5-115	+114
Cubs 17-12	-1.5+145	u8.5-105	-135

Friday 6:20 p.m.

May 31, 2024

Wrigley FieldChicago

J.Assad o0.5 Ks+200

0.5u

Elly 1st PA K

CIN o1.5 Team Total (F5)-160

0.31u

CIN +126

3.78u

J.Assad o4.5 Ks-132

0.76u

Over 8-106

0.94u

J.Assad o4.5 Ks-155

J.Assad u16.5 Outs-125

As good as Assad has been, he’s under in 6/11 starts, including 4/6 at wrigley. His control is an issue - 62.6% strike% is 101/128th, and 4.06 pitches/PA is 15th highest. Reds are 7th in pitches per PA, and importantly, they have the 5th lowest chase rate as a team. They aren’t hitting well, but they’ll drag out at bats, and should throw 5-6 lefties in the lineup (Assad’s worse split from an OPS and pitches per PA perspective).

Featured Insight
Reds RPs have a strikeout rate of 27% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- fourth highest in MLB. Cubs right-handed hitters have struck out 31% against LHP over the last week -- tied for third highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Cubs have a strikeout rate of 29% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- second highest in MLB. Reds left-handed hitters have struck out 29% against RHP over the last two weeks -- third highest in MLB.

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The Reds are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Nico Hoerner has struck out in just 12% of PA's since last season -- sixth lowest in MLB-- 96th Percentile. Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 17% vs right-handed batters since last season -- 15th lowest among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP-- 12th Percentile.

Jonathan India has an OPS of just .650 with RISP since last season -- ninth worst in MLB-- eighth Percentile. Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .366 (167 PAs) with RISP since last season -- best among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP-- 100th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 7.36 (95.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 -- 0 Percentile.

Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .401 (198 PA's) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .725 -- 100th Percentile.

5 of Javier Assad's 15 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season -- tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has an average spin rate of 2790.9 RPM on sliders since the 2022 season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 2407.6 -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 7-6 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cubs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 11 of Cubs' 16 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	15-14	8-8	7-6	8-6	7-8
Reds	17-12	8-5	9-7	8-5	9-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	18-10-1	11-5	7-5-1	9-5	9-5-1
Reds	13-15-1	5-7-1	8-8	3-9-1	9-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	17-12	9-7	8-5	10-4	7-8
Reds	16-13	7-6	9-7	9-4	7-8

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 30th	@MIL	L 4-6	+1.5 L	O 8.5	MIL +105
May 29th	@MIL	L 6-10	-1.5 L	O 7.5	MIL -148
May 28th	@MIL	W 6-3	+1.5 W	O 8	CHC +140
May 27th	@MIL	L 1-5	-1.5 L	U 8	MIL -115
May 26th	@STL	L 3-4	+1.5 W	U 8	STL +122

Drew Pomeranz
P
Pomeranz is out with elbow
Out
Justin Steele
P
Steele is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Tyler Stephenson
C
Stephenson is out with oblique
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out
Carson Spiers
P
Spiers is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Ashcraft, P	83	4.2	4	3
RF.Cruz, P	22	1.1	0	0
LS.Moll, P	16	1	0	0
RL.Sims, P	16	1	1	0
RA.Diaz, P	19	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Friedl, CF	1-5	0	0	1
2E.De La Cruz, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Candelario, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
3J.Candelario, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
3J.Candelario, 3B	0-5	0	0	0
4S.Steer, 1B	0-2	1	0	0
4S.Steer, LF	0-2	1	0	0
4S.Steer, 1B	0-2	1	0	0
5J.Fraley, RF	1-4	1	0	0
6T.Stephenson, C	2-3	0	0	1
7N.Martini, DH	1-2	0	0	1
7S.Fairchild, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7S.Fairchild, DH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.India, 2B	1-3	1	0	0
8J.Hurtubise, PR	0-0	1	0	0
8J.Hurtubise, LF	0-0	1	0	0
9W.Benson, LF	1-1	0	0	0
9S.Espinal, PH	1-1	1	1	2
9S.Espinal, 3B	1-1	1	1	2
9S.Espinal, 2B	1-1	1	1	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Assad, P	98	5.1	7	2
LD.Smyly, P	32	1.1	3	2
RT.Miller, P	31	1.1	1	0
RH.Neris, P	20	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Tauchman, DH	1-2	0	0	0
1P.Wisdom, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1P.Wisdom, DH	0-1	0	0	0
1N.Madrigal, PH	0-1	0	0	0
2S.Suzuki, RF	1-4	0	0	1
3C.Bellinger, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
4C.Morel, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
5I.Happ, LF	1-3	1	1	3
6N.Hoerner, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7D.Swanson, SS	1-4	0	0	0
8P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	2-4	1	0	0
9Y.Gomes, C	0-2	1	0	0
9M.Busch, PH	0-0	0	0	0