Reds vs Cubs Odds & Picks
| Cincinnati Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
The Chicago Cubs are in a bit of a rut offensively. They are now under .500 after losing their series to the Milwaukee Brewers. They will look to Javier Assad to continue his hot streak on the mound Friday against the Cincinnati Reds. Assad has outpitched his peripheral metrics, but he has been great in the starting role for the Cubs.
His opponent will be Graham Ashcraft, who has not been as fortunate on the bump. Ashcraft may be able to keep the ball on the ground, but his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are far below average. That said, the Cubs have struggled against righties, and the Cincinnati bullpen has been elite lately.
Since the Reds have not been able to hit the ball much either, the under should be in play. Find my Reds vs Cubs prediction on the over/under (8.5; 115o /-105u) below.
Cincinnati Reds
Ashcraft owns a 4.67 ERA and 4.50 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 10th percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 13th percentile. However, a ground-ball rate in the 71st percentile will suffice. The Cubs do not hit a ton of ground balls, but they can in certain parts of the batting order. Since Ashcraft has gone at least five innings in all but one of five May starts, he should be able to do so here.
The Reds have been terrible against righties in May, with a 75 wRC+, 8.3% walk rate and 25.7% strikeout rate. That ranks second-to-last in MLB. Additionally, the Reds only have one hitter above a .320 xwOBA in May off righties in Will Benson. Spencer Steer, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley and Elly De La Cruz are all underperforming. They likely will not turn around the slump within the next couple days.
The Reds can throw in relief, however. In May, the Cincinnati bullpen owns a 3.51 xFIP with a walk rate below 8% and strikeout rate above 26%. Fernando Cruz has blown hitters away, so once Ashcraft goes five strong, he will hand the ball over to reliable options.
Use the Action Network’s DraftKings promo code to get a signup bonus when betting Reds vs. Cubs.
Chicago Cubs
Assad owns a 2.17 ERA against a 3.51 xERA. He will see some negative regression, but his expected numbers are still decent. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate rank in the middle of the pack, and the same goes for his strikeout rate. His walk rate could use some work, but overall, he has enough in his arsenal and a plus fastball that can get by this Reds lineup.
The Cubs are not much better than the Reds against righties lately. In May, they have a collective 96 wRC+ with a 10.8% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate. They have five batters with a .320+ xwOBA against righties in the last month, but a few of the better hitters in the lineup are barely hanging on here. The bottom of the order has been atrocious, and even though the wind could be blowing out to left on Friday, a team .361 SLG is not going to get the job done.
The Cubs’ relief staff has been good, as well. They have a 3.45 xFIP in May with similar strikeout and walk numbers to Cincinnati’s. They are plagued with injuries to relievers, but there are still a few options manager Craig Counsell can go to. There are more than enough innings from the Cubs’ pitchers to hold this paltry Reds lineup in check.
Reds vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
It should be a nice day in Chicago on Friday, but neither of these teams are hitting the ball well right now, especially when facing a right-hander. Take the Under in this game with more than enough pitching to keep the score low in this one.
Pick: Under 8 (-106 via FanDuel) | Bet to 7.5
