Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 4, 2024

Red Sox at Twins

12:10 am • NESN

Boston Red Sox

22-23

2 - 5

Minnesota Twins

24-20

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Paddack			4.99	5-3
T.Houck			3.12	9-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 22-23	-1.5	-1.5+170	o7.5-108	+103
Twins 24-20	u8	+1.5-205	u7.5-112	-123

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

May 04, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

BOS -115 (F5)

0.5u

C.Paddack u15.5 Outs-120

1.2u

Paddack under in 3/5 - one over vs a terrible White Sox lineup, and the other 5.1 IP and got shelled by BAL. Has been awful vs lefties (.935 OPS allowed), and doesn’t throw strikes (63% is 78/128 qualifiers). Red Sox have 5 lefties in the lineup today, and have the 12th lowest chase rate the L30. And they’re taking - 141 wRC+ and .868 OPS the L14 days vs righties. Twins pen is rested after an off day - no need to push Paddack.

BOS +105

MIN -121

T.Houck o5.5 Ks-125

0.63u

BOS -118 (F5)

0.59u

BOS -115 (F5)

1.15u

MIN -109

1.5u

DO I HEAR 11 STRAIGHT?

Under 8.5-115

0.5u

Bet to 8 (-105)

BOS -105 (F5)

0.53u

Bet to -115

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have scored in at least three different innings in 58% of their games this season -- fifth highest in MLB. Twins have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 53% of their games this season -- tied for fourth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Twins RPs have a strikeout rate of 28% vs right-handed batters this season -- tied for second highest in MLB. Red Sox right-handed hitters have struck out 32% against LHP this season -- highest in MLB.

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The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Twins are 21-60 (.259) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.

Carlos Santana is batting just .177 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- seventh worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 40% of the time since last season -- eighth highest among starting pitchers with at least 76 total SL-- 95th Percentile.

Ryan Jeffers is batting .357 on breaking pitches this season -- tied for 12th best among hitters with at least 43 total PA's-- 95th Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 43% of the time this season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 11-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Twins' 21 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	26-18	15-6	11-12	15-12	11-6
Red Sox	22-23	9-11	13-12	15-16	7-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	16-25-3	7-13-1	9-12-2	10-15-2	6-10-1
Red Sox	22-22-1	8-11-1	14-11	14-16-1	8-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	24-20	15-6	9-14	15-12	9-8
Red Sox	22-23	11-9	11-14	17-14	5-8

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 1st	@CWS	W 10-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -225
Apr 30th	@CWS	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIN -180
Apr 29th	@CWS	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIN -164
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 11-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIN -110
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 16-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -107

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Romy Gonzalez
1B
Gonzalez is out with back
Out
Masataka Yoshida
LF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P		99	6	5	4
RN.Uwasawa, P		43	2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	1-4	1	0
2R.Devers, 3B	2-3	0	2
3T.O'Neill, LF	0-4	0	0
4W.Abreu, RF	0-4	0	0
5G.Cooper, 1B	0-4	0	0
6D.Smith, DH	0-4	0	0
7V.Grissom, 2B	0-3	0	0
8R.McGuire, C	0-2	1	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	1-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Paddack, P	83	6	6	0
RG.Jax, P	11	1	3	0
RC.Sands, P	12	0.2	1	2
LC.Thielbar, P	7	0.1	1	0
RJ.Duran, P	11	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Kirilloff, LF	0-4	1	0
1M.Margot, LF	0-0	0	0
2E.Julien, 2B	1-2	0	2
3R.Jeffers, C	1-4	0	2
4M.Kepler, RF	1-3	0	0
5C.Correa, SS	1-4	0	0
6T.Larnach, DH	1-3	0	0
6A.Martin, PR	0-1	1	0
6A.Martin, DH	0-1	1	0
7C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	0
8W.Castro, CF	2-3	2	0
9J.Miranda, 3B	0-3	1	0
9K.Farmer, 3B	0-0	0	0