Twins vs. White Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - April 30, 2024

Twins at White Sox

11:40 pm • NBCS-CHI

Minnesota Twins

36-41

6 - 5

Chicago White Sox

39-35

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Soroka			4.75	0-10
S.Woods Richardson			4.18	5-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 36-41	-1.5-112	o8.5-116	-180
White Sox 39-35	+1.5-108	u8.5-103	+150

Tuesday 11:40 p.m.

April 30, 2024

Rate FieldChicago

Over 6.5 (Live)-120

1.5u

MIN +100 (Live)

Under 8.5-105

MIN -150 (F5)

0.75u

M.Soroka o4.5 Ks+105

0.5u

M.Soroka o2.5 BB-106

0.53u

MIN -150 (F5)

0.75u

Bet to -166

MIN -150 (F5)

0.75u

SWR's worst projection is still a run better than Soroka's best estimator (5.90 xFIP). CWS 74 wRC+ v RHP (67 Home), MIN 100 v RHP (189 L7days). MIN large defensive and bullpen edges too, but opting for the better F5 price.

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Tuesday MLB Bets
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 30, 2024 UTC

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Ryan Jeffers has an OPS of .874 since last season -- 15th best among hitters with at least 283 total PA's-- 95th Percentile. Dominic Leone has allowed an OPS of .863 (293 PAs) since last season -- fourth worst among qualified RPs-- second Percentile.

Byron Buxton has struck out in 33% of PA's this season -- tied for 11th highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Michael Kopech has a strikeout rate of 36% this season -- 14th highest among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .444 (4 GB hits out of 9 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season -- tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .243 -- first Percentile.

Mike Soroka has a strikeout rate of just 10% (13 SO in 133 PAs) this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- first Percentile.

Mike Soroka has walked 13 of 71 left-handed batters (18%) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (9/31) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season -- 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 43% -- third Percentile.

The Twins are 20-60 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.

The Twins are 74-14 (.841) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .786.

The White Sox are just 56-9 (.862) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.

The White Sox are just 53-12 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

White Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
White Sox are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
White Sox are 19-19 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of White Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 20 of White Sox' 36 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
White Sox	43-31	24-12	19-19	7-5	36-26
Twins	40-37	21-18	19-19	11-12	29-24

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
White Sox	43-30-1	20-15-1	23-15	6-5-1	37-25
Twins	46-26-5	20-15-4	26-11-1	12-10-1	33-16-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
White Sox	39-35	24-12	15-23	8-4	31-31
Twins	36-41	20-19	16-22	12-11	24-29

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 29th	MIN	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 7.5	MIN +138
Apr 28th	TB	W 4-2	+1.5 W	U 8	CWS +120
Apr 27th	TB	W 8-7	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CWS +164
Apr 26th	TB	W 9-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	CWS +190
Apr 25th	@MIN	L 3-6	+1.5 L	O 8	MIN +170

Mike Vasil
RP
Vasil is out with elbow
Out
Ky Bush
SP
Bush is out with elbow
Out
Brooks Baldwin
LF
Baldwin is out with elbow
Out
Kyle Teel
C
Teel is out with hamstring
Out
Drew Thorpe
SP
Thorpe is out with elbow
Out

Pablo Lopez
SP
Lopez is out with elbow
Out
David Festa
SP
Festa is out with shoulder
Out
Travis Adams
SP
Adams is out with triceps
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Woods Richardson, P	81	3.2	2	1
LK.Funderburk, P	30	2	1	2
RJ.Jackson, P	14	1.1	1	0
RC.Sands, P	13	0.1	1	1
LC.Thielbar, P	2	0.2	0	0
RJ.Duran, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Kirilloff, LF	0-2	0	0
1B.Buxton, PH	0-1	1	0
1B.Buxton, CF	0-1	1	0
2E.Julien, 2B	0-4	0	0
3R.Jeffers, C	1-3	1	0
3M.Margot, PR	1-1	1	0
3M.Margot, LF	1-1	1	0
4M.Kepler, RF	1-3	0	1
5C.Correa, SS	1-5	1	1
6T.Larnach, DH	2-4	1	1
7C.Santana, 1B	1-3	0	0
8W.Castro, CF	1-3	1	1
8W.Castro, LF	1-3	1	1
8W.Castro, 3B	1-3	1	1
9K.Farmer, 3B	1-4	0	1
9C.Vazquez, C	0-0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Soroka, P	67	4.1	3	2
LT.Banks, P	13	0.2	0	1
RD.Leone, P	16	1	2	0
RS.Wilson, P	19	1	1	0
RJ.Leasure, P	19	0.2	1	2
RP.Berroa, P	8	0.1	0	0
RM.Kopech, P	22	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1N.Lopez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2T.Pham, CF	2-5	1	0	0
3E.Jimenez, DH	1-5	0	0	1
4G.Sheets, RF	2-5	0	0	0
5A.Vaughn, 1B	2-5	0	0	0
6A.Benintendi, LF	1-4	2	1	1
7D.Mendick, 3B	2-4	1	1	2
8P.DeJong, SS	1-3	1	0	0
8R.Grossman, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8B.Shewmake, SS	0-0	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	1-2	0	0	0
9R.Ortega, PH	0-0	0	0	0
9K.Lee, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9K.Lee, C	0-1	0	0	0