Rays vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - May 31, 2023

Rays at Cubs

12:05 am • MARQ

Tampa Bay Rays

10-10

1 - 2

Chicago Cubs

11-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Hendricks			3.75	6-8
S.McClanahan			3.29	11-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 10-10	-1.5-105	o8.5-110	-180
Cubs 11-5	+1.5-115	u8.5-110	+150

Wednesday 12:05 a.m.

May 31, 2023

Wrigley FieldChicago

TB -1.5-102

1.02u

CHC +147

CHC +1.5-105

S.McClanahan o6.5 Ks-135

7 of the 9 Cubs hitters in todays lineup profile as 24%+ K% vs lefties. McClanahan is over this line in 6/L9.

Over 8.5-115

R.Arozarena o1.5 Total Bases+133

He’s hitting a triple

CHC +1.5-102

0.98u

TB -1.5-115

0.46u

TB o4.5-132

1.32u

S.McClanahan o6.5 Ks-140

0.21u

K.Hendricks o3.5 Ks-125

1.2u

In his first start this year, Hendricks had increased his velo from where it was last year, and he converted it into a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. I had expected his pitch count to be low because he hadn't gone long in his rehab stints, but he went 86 there. I'm comfortable projecting him for 90 tonight. The strikeouts were there in the rehab stint, too, so between that and the pitch count, I feel fine taking an over here. The Rays are a phenomenal offense, but they're not necessarily a low-strikeout one, so I do think there's value in the over here.

CHC +165

1.32u

Betting against Shane McClanahan and the Rays hasn't gone well this year. But we're clearly getting a break for that in the betting markets with the Cubs' win odds under 38% at home. Kyle Hendricks had ups and downs in his debut, but he carried an increased strikeout rate that he showed in his rehab stint into the big leagues. That might not stick, but it's at least interesting. The Cubs' offense has also hit lefties well thus far, so they may be able to at least put up a better fight against McClanahan than others. It's important to acknowledge that this bet has less than 40% odds of cashing, but I'm higher on the Cubs than the market, so I still think it's a worthwhile investment.

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The Rays are 55-25 (.688) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.

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MLB Public Betting

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Rays	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cubs	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Rays	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cubs	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Rays	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 29th	TB	W 1-0	+1.5 W	U 8	CHC +102
May 28th	CIN	L 5-8	-1.5 L	O 8	CIN -169
May 27th	CIN	L 5-8	-1.5 L	O 8.5	CIN -169
May 26th	CIN	L 0-9	-1.5 L	O 6.5	CIN -145
May 25th	NYM	L 1-10	+1.5 L	O 8	NYM -105

Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LS.McClanahan, P	98	5.2	7	2
RC.Faucher, P	16	1.1	2	0
RT. Kelley, P	11	0.2	0	0
LJ.Diekman, P	12	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Lowe, RF	1-4	0	0
2W. Franco, SS	1-3	0	0
3R.Arozarena, LF	1-3	0	1
4B.Lowe, 2B	1-4	0	0
5H.Ramirez, DH	1-4	0	0
6I.Paredes, 3B	0-4	0	0
7L.Raley, 1B	0-3	0	0
8M.Margot, CF	1-4	0	0
9F. Mejia, C	1-3	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Hendricks, P	75	5	3	1
RJ.Merryweather, P	14	1	0	0
RM.Leiter, P	13	1	0	0
RA.Alzolay, P	20	2	4	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	1-4	1	1	1
2D.Swanson, SS	1-3	0	0	0
3I.Happ, LF	2-3	1	0	0
4S.Suzuki, RF	2-3	0	0	0
5T. Mancini, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Tauchman, CF	2-3	0	0	1
7P.Wisdom, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
8Y.Gomes, C	0-3	0	0	0
9C.Morel, DH	0-3	0	0	0