Padres vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 18, 2025

Padres at Nationals

10:45 pm • MASN
7 - 2
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Michael Soroka logoM.SorokaWashington Nationals logo4.500-0
Dylan Cease logoD.CeaseSan Diego Padres logo4.826-11

Padres at Nationals Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres
76-60
-1.5
-1.5+114
o8.5-110
-153
Nationals
53-82
u8.5
+1.5-136
u8.5-110
+125
location pinFriday 10:45 p.m.
July 18, 2025
Nationals ParkWashington
Padres vs. Nationals Expert Picks
Kyle Murray
Kyle Murray
Last 30d: 32-40-1 (-2.2u)
Under 4.5 (F5)-120
1u
Allan Lem
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 74-67-5 (-0.5u)
Under 4.5 (F5)-120
0.5u
I'm going to back both starting pitchers (Dylan Cease and Mike Soroka) for the F5. Washington has the worst bullpen in the Majors so for that reason alone, I'm going to avoid the full game total to reduce the variance introduced by late-game bullpen usage. Both starting pitchers have outperformed their surface stats, which is the biggest factor for me. Dylan Cease has a 4.88 ERA but a 3.65 xERA. Home runs have been Cease's biggest issue this season (1.31 HR/9 compared to his career rate of 1.09 HR/9), but the Nationals rank just 18th in team ISO against RHP. Mike Soroka has a 5.35 ERA but a 3.21 xERA under the hood. Soroka has also been hurt by the longball this season (1.34 HR/9) but the Padres rank even worse than the Nationals in team ISO at 24th in the Majors.
Picks Office
Picks Office
Last 30d: 83-74-3 (+8.4u)
Under 8.5-105
1u
Follow @PicksOffice on X to read the writeup.
WSH +1.5-125
1u
Follow @PicksOffice on X to read the writeup.
Andrew A
Andrew A
Last 30d: 5-7-0 (-4.1u)
SD -145
1u
Scott Rickenbach
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 70-83-6 (-23.7u)
SD -147
0.68u
Sandy Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 46-64-1 (-17.6u)
Over 8-114
1u
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 91-83-0 (+14.1u)
WSH +140
3u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 104-114-5 (-15.1u)
Under 8.5-102
1.02u
K Control Under Edge Overall: 214-131-15,62% (ROI:19%) Season:16-8-1,67% (ROI:28%)
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
Last 30d: 185-186-3 (+6.5u)
Over 8.5-104
0.5u
Bet to -120
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 104-114-5 (-15.1u)
SD -154
1u
Post-Break Power Picks - Big Favs Overall: 61-12-0,84% (ROI:35%)

Padres vs. Nationals Previews & Analysis

  • Padres vs Nationals: Over/Under Bet for Tonight article feature image

    Padres vs Nationals: Over/Under Bet for Tonight

    Action Network Staff
    Jul 18, 2025 UTC
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Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Padres vs. Nationals Public Betting Percentages

Away Logo

Padres

Public

80%

Bets%

20%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Nationals
64-7127-4037-312-1362-58
Padres
75-6137-2838-3334-3840-23

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Nationals
67-61-733-31-334-30-46-961-52-7
Padres
58-74-428-36-130-38-338-32-220-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Nationals
53-8226-4127-414-1149-71
Padres
76-6043-2233-3844-2831-32

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Jul 13th@MILL 1-8+1.5 LO 8.5MIL +232
Jul 12th@MILL 5-6+1.5 WO 9MIL +225
Jul 12th@MILL 3-8+1.5 LO 8.5MIL +176
Jul 10th@STLL 1-8+1.5 LU 9STL +121
Jul 9th@STLW 8-2+1.5 WO 7.5WSH +120

Nationals vs. Padres Injury Updates

Nationals Injuries

  • Josiah Gray
    SP

    Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.

    Out

  • DJ Herz
    SP

    Herz is out with elbow

    Out

Padres Injuries

  • Joe Musgrove
    SP

    Musgrove is out for season with elbow

    Out for Season

  • Michael King
    SP

    Michael King (shoulder) has been scratched Saturday. Sean Reynolds will start for the Padres.

    Out

Padres vs. Nationals Box Score
Padres Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Dylan Cease logoRD.Cease, P945.1100
Adrian Morejon logoLA.Morejon, P50.210
Jeremiah Estrada logoRJ.Estrada, P10110
Jason Adam logoRJ.Adam, P240.212
Wandy Peralta logoLW.Peralta, P141.100
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Fernando Tatis logo1F.Tatis, RF1-5100
Luis Arraez logo2L.Arraez, 1B2-4100
Manny Machado logo3M.Machado, 3B1-5114
Gavin Sheets logo4G.Sheets, LF0-3000
Bryce Johnson logo4B.Johnson, LF1-1000
Jackson Merrill logo5J.Merrill, CF1-4100
Xander Bogaerts logo6X.Bogaerts, SS2-5100
Jake Cronenworth logo7J.Cronenworth, 2B2-3101
Trenton Brooks logo8T.Brooks, DH0-1000
Jose Iglesias logo8J.Iglesias, PH1-2100
Jose Iglesias logo8J.Iglesias, DH1-2100
Elias Diaz logo9E.Diaz, C0-1002
Nationals Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Michael Soroka logoRM.Soroka, P85531
Mason Thompson logoRM.Thompson, P150.200
Andrew Chafin logoLA.Chafin, P50.110
Jose A. Ferrer logoLJ.Ferrer, P90.111
Luis Garcia logoRL.Garcia, P40.200
Cole Henry logoRC.Henry, P25110
Kyle Finnegan logoRK.Finnegan, P200.105
Jackson Rutledge logoRJ.Rutledge, P120.200
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
CJ Abrams logo1C.Abrams, SS1-4112
James Wood logo2J.Wood, LF0-3000
Luis Garcia logo3L.Garcia, 2B1-4000
Josh Bell logo4J.Bell, DH2-3000
Nathaniel Lowe logo5N.Lowe, 1B2-4000
Brady House logo6B.House, 3B1-4000
Daylen Lile logo7D.Lile, RF0-4000
Riley Adams logo8R.Adams, C0-3000
Jacob Young logo9J.Young, CF2-3100

Padres vs. Nationals Odds Comparison

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Padres at Nationals Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Padres
76-60
o4.5-114
u4.5-114
Nationals
53-82
o3.5-114
u3.5-114