Padres vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 18, 2025

Padres at Nationals

10:45 pm • MASN

San Diego Padres

76-60

7 - 2

Washington Nationals

53-82

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Soroka			4.50	0-0
D.Cease			4.82	6-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 76-60	-1.5	-1.5+114	o8.5-110	-153
Nationals 53-82	u8.5	+1.5-136	u8.5-110	+125

Friday 10:45 p.m.

July 18, 2025

Nationals ParkWashington

Under 4.5 (F5)-120

0.5u

I'm going to back both starting pitchers (Dylan Cease and Mike Soroka) for the F5. Washington has the worst bullpen in the Majors so for that reason alone, I'm going to avoid the full game total to reduce the variance introduced by late-game bullpen usage. Both starting pitchers have outperformed their surface stats, which is the biggest factor for me. Dylan Cease has a 4.88 ERA but a 3.65 xERA. Home runs have been Cease's biggest issue this season (1.31 HR/9 compared to his career rate of 1.09 HR/9), but the Nationals rank just 18th in team ISO against RHP. Mike Soroka has a 5.35 ERA but a 3.21 xERA under the hood. Soroka has also been hurt by the longball this season (1.34 HR/9) but the Padres rank even worse than the Nationals in team ISO at 24th in the Majors.

Under 8.5-105

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WSH +1.5-125

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SD -145

SD -147

0.68u

Over 8-114

WSH +140

Under 8.5-102

1.02u

K Control Under Edge Overall: 214-131-15,62% (ROI:19%) Season:16-8-1,67% (ROI:28%)

Over 8.5-104

0.5u

Bet to -120

SD -154

Post-Break Power Picks - Big Favs Overall: 61-12-0,84% (ROI:35%)

Padres vs Nationals: Over/Under Bet for Tonight
Action Network Staff•
Jul 18, 2025 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 37-31 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Nationals' 67 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	64-71	27-40	37-31	2-13	62-58
Padres	75-61	37-28	38-33	34-38	40-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	67-61-7	33-31-3	34-30-4	6-9	61-52-7
Padres	58-74-4	28-36-1	30-38-3	38-32-2	20-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	53-82	26-41	27-41	4-11	49-71
Padres	76-60	43-22	33-38	44-28	31-32

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 13th	@MIL	L 1-8	+1.5 L	O 8.5	MIL +232
Jul 12th	@MIL	L 5-6	+1.5 W	O 9	MIL +225
Jul 12th	@MIL	L 3-8	+1.5 L	O 8.5	MIL +176
Jul 10th	@STL	L 1-8	+1.5 L	U 9	STL +121
Jul 9th	@STL	W 8-2	+1.5 W	O 7.5	WSH +120

Josiah Gray
SP
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
DJ Herz
SP
Herz is out with elbow
Out

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Michael King
SP
Michael King (shoulder) has been scratched Saturday. Sean Reynolds will start for the Padres.
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Cease, P	94	5.1	10	0
LA.Morejon, P	5	0.2	1	0
RJ.Estrada, P	10	1	1	0
RJ.Adam, P	24	0.2	1	2
LW.Peralta, P	14	1.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Tatis, RF	1-5	1	0	0
2L.Arraez, 1B	2-4	1	0	0
3M.Machado, 3B	1-5	1	1	4
4G.Sheets, LF	0-3	0	0	0
4B.Johnson, LF	1-1	0	0	0
5J.Merrill, CF	1-4	1	0	0
6X.Bogaerts, SS	2-5	1	0	0
7J.Cronenworth, 2B	2-3	1	0	1
8T.Brooks, DH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Iglesias, PH	1-2	1	0	0
8J.Iglesias, DH	1-2	1	0	0
9E.Diaz, C	0-1	0	0	2

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Soroka, P	85	5	3	1
RM.Thompson, P	15	0.2	0	0
LA.Chafin, P	5	0.1	1	0
LJ.Ferrer, P	9	0.1	1	1
RL.Garcia, P	4	0.2	0	0
RC.Henry, P	25	1	1	0
RK.Finnegan, P	20	0.1	0	5
RJ.Rutledge, P	12	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	1-4	1	1	2
2J.Wood, LF	0-3	0	0	0
3L.Garcia, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Bell, DH	2-3	0	0	0
5N.Lowe, 1B	2-4	0	0	0
6B.House, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7D.Lile, RF	0-4	0	0	0
8R.Adams, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Young, CF	2-3	1	0	0