Orioles vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2023

Orioles at Braves

11:20 pm • BSSE

Baltimore Orioles

0-2

9 - 4

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Fried			2.55	8-1
D.Kremer			4.12	13-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 0-2	+1.5-110	o8.5-105	+184
Braves 0-2	-1.5-110	u8.5-115	-222

Friday 11:20 p.m.

May 05, 2023

Truist ParkAtlanta

Over 8.5-105

Over 8-120

$104.17

M.Fried u5.5 Ks-116

1.16u

BAL’s offense has been consistently strong this season, especially vs lefties. 4th in wRC+, 5th in OPS, and 26th in K% (19.6%). Fried has been excellent, per usual, but still running less than a K per inning. His swinging strike rates have been consistent with prior years (11.7%, 45th percentile), and BAL ranks 22nd in CSW% as is.

ATL -188 (F5)

0.94u

Bet to -233

ATL -190

0.95u

Bet to -195

Over 8-115

Project 9.1; Orioles hit Lefties well, 120 wRC+ with a strikeout rate below 20%. Both bullpens rock solid, May split half unit on F5 Over

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The Orioles are 6-3 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season -- tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Braves are just 0-3 (.000) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season -- tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.

The Braves are 22-32 (.407) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .271.

The Orioles are 3-3 (.500) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season -- tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Ryan Mountcastle had an OPS of just .459 with two strikes last season -- 12th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Max Fried allowed an OPS of just .357 (369 PAs) with two strikes last season -- fourth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .737 (28 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on sliders this season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .401 -- fourth Percentile.

Max Fried has pitched 18.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run -- Andres Machado has the longest active streak at 23.1.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season (195 balls in play) -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 80.4

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Orioles	87-75	41-40	46-35	61-57	25-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Orioles	85-63-14	40-32-9	45-31-5	60-45-13	22-18-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Orioles	91-71	44-37	47-34	68-50	22-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 4th	@MIA	W 6-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	ATL -105
May 3rd	@MIA	W 14-6	-1.5 W	O 8.5	ATL -145
May 2nd	@MIA	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8	ATL +101
May 1st	@NYM	L 3-5	-1.5 L	U 9	NYM -107
May 1st	@NYM	W 9-8	-1.5 L	O 8	ATL -200

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Grayson Rodriguez
P
Rodriguez is out with back
Out
John Means
P
Means is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Kremer, P	93	6	3	1
RM.Baumann, P	25	1.1	1	3
LK.Akin, P	11	0.2	0	0
RA.Voth, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Mateo, SS	0-4	1	0	0
2A.Rutschman, C	0-3	1	0	0
3R.Mountcastle, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
4A.Santander, RF	2-5	2	2	5
4K.Stowers, RF	0-0	0	0	0
5J.McCann, DH	1-4	0	0	0
5A.Hays, PR	0-0	1	0	0
5A.Hays, DH	0-0	1	0	0
5A.Frazier, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5A.Frazier, DH	0-1	0	0	0
6R.Urias, 2B	3-5	0	0	0
7C.Mullins, CF	2-5	1	1	2
8R.McKenna, LF	2-4	2	0	0
9G.Henderson, 3B	1-3	1	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Fried, P	104	6	7	5
RJ.Jimenez, P	17	1	2	2
RK.Yates, P	16	1	1	0
RJ.Chavez, P	10	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	1-4	1	0	0
2M.Olson, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
4S.Murphy, C	2-4	1	1	4
5E.Rosario, LF	2-4	0	0	0
6O.Albies, 2B	2-4	0	0	0
7M.Ozuna, DH	0-3	0	0	0
8S.Hilliard, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9B.Shewmake, SS	0-4	0	0	0