Happy Cinco de Mayo!
Given where it falls on the sports calendar — amid the NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs, the MLB regular season, the Kentucky Derby, international soccer and (more often than not) a big combat sports event or two — Cinco de Mayo is always one of the biggest betting days of the year.
This year, to celebrate the holiday properly from a betting perspective, I perused all of our Best Bet files across the world of sports and picked out my favorites to put together into a Cinco de Mayo Best Bet parlay.
Will it hit? Probably not! Parlays aren't value-based bets, since you need to hit every single one of the legs to cash, and since the odds on the parlay are almost always lower than they should be at fair value. In addition, we'd expect to win the below Cinco de Mayo parlay less than 3.5% of the time, and even that might be generous.
But parlays can be a lot of fun, as long as you know that you're not going to deliver a return on your wagers in the long run. A $10 bet on our Cinco de Mayo parlay would mean $276 in winnings, if by some stroke of good fortune it were to hit. And it gives us a rooting interest across multiple sports for the entire afternoon and evening. In addition, I'll be placing these bets individually, in case, say, four of them hit but one misses.
With all that said, let's get to the Cinco de Mayo parlay, shall we?
Cinco de Mayo: The Best Parlay Bet to Celebrate the Holiday
+2765 Parlay at BetMGM
NBA: 76ers +2.5
NBA prop: Devin Booker over 38.5 PTS + AST
NHL: Devils moneyline
MLB: Brewers vs Giants over 8 runs
MLB NRFI/YRFI: Braves vs Orioles YRFI
Make sure to check your BetMGM rewards before placing your bet! I had an Odds Boost Token that I was able to apply to this parlay to boost the odds up to +3055 for my Cinco de Mayo parlay.
Note: Because they take place on Saturday, we did not include bets for the Kentucky Derby, UFC 288, and Saturday's Canelo Alvarez fight, but you can find best bets for each by clicking those links.
NBA Cinco de Mayo Best Bet for Parlay
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Joe Dellera: I covered this game in the 76ers-Celtics Game 3 betting guide (you can read that here), but I'm on Philly in this one. The 76ers have been incredible at home this season going 26-16-1 ATS (31-12 SU) including 4-1 (3-2 SU) as a home dog; however, that one ATS loss as a home dog was to Boston. Regardless, this is a good spot to back Philadelphia in their return home.
Embiid showed he had value and could play lengthy minutes in his return, and if there was not a blowout I'd have expected to see minutes in the 30s. If he's able to play, he is the most dominant player on the floor.
I do not have these teams so far apart (even with the injury), that Philadelphia should be a home underdog in this spot and I'll take the points in a game where both of these offenses should regulate to the mean.
(Editor's Note: We'd be remiss if we didn't point out one of the most powerful trends in all of sports betting — in the NBA playoffs, when underdogs cover, they overwhelmingly tend to win outright. The bold among us will bet Sixers moneyline here instead, which would move the odds on our parlay to +2833.)
NBA Prop Cinco de Mayo Best Bet for Parlay
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Brandon Anderson: There are several bets I’m making on tonight’s game and wrote about them in the Nuggets vs Suns Game 3 betting guide.
Cam Payne may take Paul's minutes, but Devin Booker will likely take over the bulk of the playmaking duties. He's been money on his assists prop in games with Kevin Durant, now up to 6.7 APG in 15 games. Unfortunately, Paul's injury has finally caused books to push Booker's assist line to 7.5, still with heavy juice on the over.
I don't see a ton of value there, but still like Booker's points + assists. He's averaging 37.0 points and 7.2 assists per game over his last six outings with at least 35 PA every game, going over 38.5 PA in four of the six and a couple possessions away in the others. Booker is playing nearly every minute. He had 11 potential assists last game and probably hits 15 or more with Paul out, and we know he'll score.
Keep riding the Booker wave at over 38.5 Points + Assists.
NHL Cinco de Mayo Best Bet for Parlay
New Jersey Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes
Ryan Dadoun: New Jersey is seen as a mild underdog on the moneyline. That’s unsurprising as the game will be in Carolina, but I think there’s a good chance the Devils will battle back hard after a disappointing Game 1. I’m growing more optimistic about Schmid as the playoffs progress. The Devils were 28-9-4 on the road during the regular season and 2-1 in New York in the first round, so Carolina playing on home ice isn’t necessarily a big advantage.
It’s a somewhat risky play given how even these teams are, but the potential return for taking New Jersey on the moneyline is good enough to make it worthwhile in my mind.
MLB Cinco de Mayo Best Bet for Parlay
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Corbin Burnes vs. Sean Manaea
Sean Zerillo: We have played several Over wagers at Oracle Park already this season, and we'll back another Over on Friday up to 8 (-110), compared to my projection of 8.5.
Sean Manaea deserves every bit of his 7.85 ERA this season (8.24 xERA) despite adding three ticks of velocity relative to last season. Corbin Burnes (3.78 xERA) has also shown cracks this season. Strikeout rate tends to stabilize quickly, and Burnes' strikeouts (19.7%) are down alarmingly compared to recent seasons, and he's lost a tick of velocity across his entire arsenal.
On top of the full game Over, you can bet an F5 Over 4 to -130.
MLB NRFI Cinco de Mayo Best Bet for Parlay
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
Billy Ward: I have this one projected around 60%, with Atlanta doing the bulk of the work. Even so, Baltimore is a top-three team overall against left-handed pitching, so it wouldn't shock me if the Orioles come through despite the somewhat difficult matchup with Atlanta's Max Fried.
+2768 Parlay at BetMGM
NBA: 76ers +2.5
NBA prop: Devin Booker over 38.5 PTS + AST
NHL: Devils moneyline
MLB: Brewers vs Giants over 8 runs
MLB NRFI/YRFI: Braves vs Orioles YRFI
