Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 3, 2023

Mets at Brewers

6:10 pm • MLB Network

New York Mets

30-20

0 - 10

Milwaukee Brewers

24-26

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			3.86	12-10
C.Carrasco			6.80	3-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 30-20	-1.5+152	o8.5-120	-105
Brewers 24-26	+1.5-187	u8.5-102	-112

Monday 6:10 p.m.

April 03, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

C.Carrasco u4.5 Hits Allowed+110

1.1u

Carrasco was dealing with some elbow issues last week and while it doesn’t sound like too big of a concern, the Mets could be a bit cautious with his pitch count in his first start. I’m projecting him for 5 IP and 4.2 hits allowed with a 58% chance of staying under 4.5

MIL -110

0.91u

Over 8.5-110

NYM u4.5-135

0.74u

MIL -120

NYM +105

Over 4 (F5)-120

0.33u

BetMGM price. Both teams in their better split and against pitchers with pitch mixes that play into their hands

MIL -118

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Monday MLB Betting Card
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The Mets are 71-43 (.623) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season -- 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .572.

The Mets are 11-127 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

Willy Adames had a miss rate of 30% on outside fastballs last season -- tied for 14th worst in MLB-- 14th Percentile. Carlos Carrasco located his fastball away 52% of the time last season -- 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (84 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when he was behind in the count in 2022 -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .094 (44-for-468) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the 2021 season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .167 -- 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .463 (57-for-123) against Carlos Carrasco when he's behind in the count since the 2021 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .339 -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .183 (97-for-531) against Freddy Peralta on pitches in the strike zone since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .278 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 13-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 9 of Brewers' 25 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	26-24	13-12	13-12	15-10	10-14
Mets	23-27	12-10	11-17	15-21	8-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	18-29-3	9-15-1	9-14-2	9-15-1	9-13-2
Mets	17-32-1	7-14-1	10-18	16-19-1	1-13

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	24-26	15-10	9-16	17-8	6-18
Mets	30-20	17-5	13-15	23-13	7-7

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 2nd	@CHC	W 9-5	+1.5 W	O 9	MIL +110
Apr 1st	@CHC	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 6.5	MIL -120
Mar 30th	@CHC	L 0-4	-1.5 L	U 6.5	CHC -140
Mar 28th	@COL	W 8-1	-1.5 W	U 10.5	MIL -130
Mar 27th	COL	L 8-12	-1.5 L	O 10	COL -172

Jose Quintana
P
Quintana is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Easton McGee
P
McGee is out with arm
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Garrett Mitchell
OF
Mitchell is out with oblique
Out
Aaron Ashby
P
Ashby is out with oblique
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Frankie Montas
P
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
P
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with knee
Out
Jose Siri
OF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Nick Madrigal
IF
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Carrasco, P	96	4	4	5
RT. Hunter, P	44	2	1	5
RD.Santana, P	28	1	1	0
RL.Guillorme, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-2	0	0	0
2S.Marte, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	0-1	0	0	0
3E. Escobar, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3E. Escobar, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.McNeil, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.McNeil, SS	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Canha, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Canha, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7D.Vogelbach, DH	1-3	0	0	0
7T. Locastro, LF	0-0	0	0	0
8O.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0	0
9L.Guillorme, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
9L.Guillorme, SS	2-4	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P		85	6	7	0
RB.Wilson, P		49	3	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	0-4	1	0	0
2J.Winker, DH	1-3	1	0	1
3W.Adames, SS	1-5	1	0	1
4R.Tellez, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
5W.Contreras, C	1-5	0	0	1
6G.Mitchell, CF	1-4	2	0	0
7B.Anderson, 3B	2-3	2	1	3
7O.Miller, PH	0-0	0	0	0
7O.Miller, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
8B.Turang, 2B	2-3	2	1	4
9J.Wiemer, RF	1-3	0	0	0