Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 3, 2023

Mets at Brewers

6:10 pm • MLB Network

New York Mets

7-6

0 - 10

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			3.86	12-10
C.Carrasco			6.80	3-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-6	-1.5+152	o8.5-120	-105
Brewers 1-2	+1.5-187	u8.5-102	-112

Monday 6:10 p.m.

April 03, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

C.Carrasco u4.5 Hits Allowed+110

1.1u

Carrasco was dealing with some elbow issues last week and while it doesn’t sound like too big of a concern, the Mets could be a bit cautious with his pitch count in his first start. I’m projecting him for 5 IP and 4.2 hits allowed with a 58% chance of staying under 4.5

MIL -110

0.91u

NYM u4.5-135

0.74u

W.Adames o1.5 Total Bases+117

$43.00

MIL -120

NYM +105

MIL -130 (F5)

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The Mets are 71-43 (.623) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season -- 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .572.

The Mets are 11-127 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

Willy Adames had a miss rate of 30% on outside fastballs last season -- tied for 14th worst in MLB-- 14th Percentile. Carlos Carrasco located his fastball away 52% of the time last season -- 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (84 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when he was behind in the count in 2022 -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .094 (44-for-468) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the 2021 season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .167 -- 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .463 (57-for-123) against Carlos Carrasco when he's behind in the count since the 2021 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .339 -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .183 (97-for-531) against Freddy Peralta on pitches in the strike zone since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .278 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 2nd	@CHC	W 9-5	+1.5 W	O 9	MIL +110
Apr 1st	@CHC	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 6.5	MIL -120
Mar 30th	@CHC	L 0-4	-1.5 L	U 6.5	CHC -140
Mar 28th	@COL	W 8-1	-1.5 W	U 10.5	MIL -130
Mar 27th	COL	L 8-12	-1.5 L	O 10	COL -172

Wade Miley
P
Miley is out with elbow
Out
Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Carrasco, P	96	4	4	5
RT. Hunter, P	44	2	1	5
RD.Santana, P	28	1	1	0
RL.Guillorme, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-2	0	0	0
2S.Marte, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	0-1	0	0	0
3E. Escobar, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3E. Escobar, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.McNeil, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.McNeil, SS	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Canha, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Canha, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7D.Vogelbach, DH	1-3	0	0	0
7T. Locastro, LF	0-0	0	0	0
8O.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0	0
9L.Guillorme, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
9L.Guillorme, SS	2-4	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P		85	6	7	0
RB.Wilson, P		49	3	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	0-4	1	0	0
2J.Winker, DH	1-3	1	0	1
3W.Adames, SS	1-5	1	0	1
4R.Tellez, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
5W.Contreras, C	1-5	0	0	1
6G.Mitchell, CF	1-4	2	0	0
7B.Anderson, 3B	2-3	2	1	3
7O.Miller, PH	0-0	0	0	0
7O.Miller, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
8B.Turang, 2B	2-3	2	1	4
9J.Wiemer, RF	1-3	0	0	0