Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 3, 2023

Mets at Brewers

6:10 pm • MLB Network

New York Mets

21-11

0 - 10

Milwaukee Brewers

16-16

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			3.86	12-10
C.Carrasco			6.80	3-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 21-11	-1.5+152	o8.5-120	-105
Brewers 16-16	+1.5-187	u8.5-102	-112

Monday 6:10 p.m.

April 03, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

C.Carrasco u4.5 Hits Allowed+110

1.1u

Carrasco was dealing with some elbow issues last week and while it doesn’t sound like too big of a concern, the Mets could be a bit cautious with his pitch count in his first start. I’m projecting him for 5 IP and 4.2 hits allowed with a 58% chance of staying under 4.5

MIL -110

0.91u

Over 8.5-110

NYM u4.5-135

0.74u

W.Adames o1.5 Total Bases+117

$43.00

MIL -120

NYM +105

Over 4 (F5)-120

0.33u

BetMGM price. Both teams in their better split and against pitchers with pitch mixes that play into their hands

MIL -118

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The Mets are 71-43 (.623) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season -- 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .572.

The Mets are 11-127 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

Willy Adames had a miss rate of 30% on outside fastballs last season -- tied for 14th worst in MLB-- 14th Percentile. Carlos Carrasco located his fastball away 52% of the time last season -- 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (84 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when he was behind in the count in 2022 -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .094 (44-for-468) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the 2021 season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .167 -- 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .463 (57-for-123) against Carlos Carrasco when he's behind in the count since the 2021 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .339 -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .183 (97-for-531) against Freddy Peralta on pitches in the strike zone since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .278 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 11-8 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Brewers' 13 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	19-13	8-5	11-8	11-6	7-7
Mets	17-15	10-6	7-9	11-13	6-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	13-16-3	5-7-1	8-9-2	7-9-1	6-6-2
Mets	11-21	5-11	6-10	11-13	0-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	16-16	9-4	7-12	12-5	3-11
Mets	21-11	13-3	8-8	17-7	4-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 2nd	@CHC	W 9-5	+1.5 W	O 9	MIL +110
Apr 1st	@CHC	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 6.5	MIL -120
Mar 30th	@CHC	L 0-4	-1.5 L	U 6.5	CHC -140
Mar 28th	@COL	W 8-1	-1.5 W	U 10.5	MIL -130
Mar 27th	COL	L 8-12	-1.5 L	O 10	COL -172

Brandon Woodruff
SP
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
CF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Garrett Mitchell
CF
Mitchell is out with oblique
Out
Aaron Ashby
SP
Ashby is out with oblique
Out
Robert Gasser
SP
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Frankie Montas
SP
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
SP
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Paul Blackburn
SP
Blackburn is out with knee
Out
Jose Siri
CF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Nick Madrigal
3B
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
SS
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
SP
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Carrasco, P	96	4	4	5
RT. Hunter, P	44	2	1	5
RD.Santana, P	28	1	1	0
RL.Guillorme, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	0-2	0	0	0
2S.Marte, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	0-1	0	0	0
3E. Escobar, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3E. Escobar, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.McNeil, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.McNeil, SS	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Canha, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Canha, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
7D.Vogelbach, DH	1-3	0	0	0
7T. Locastro, LF	0-0	0	0	0
8O.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0	0
9L.Guillorme, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
9L.Guillorme, SS	2-4	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P		85	6	7	0
RB.Wilson, P		49	3	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	0-4	1	0	0
2J.Winker, DH	1-3	1	0	1
3W.Adames, SS	1-5	1	0	1
4R.Tellez, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
5W.Contreras, C	1-5	0	0	1
6G.Mitchell, CF	1-4	2	0	0
7B.Anderson, 3B	2-3	2	1	3
7O.Miller, PH	0-0	0	0	0
7O.Miller, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
8B.Turang, 2B	2-3	2	1	4
9J.Wiemer, RF	1-3	0	0	0