Mets vs. Brewers Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 8 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -200 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -125 | 8 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +170 |
The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers open their series in Milwaukee on Monday. Carlos Carrasco will face Freddy Peralta in an underrated early season pitching duel. Carrasco threw 152 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA and an 4.07 xERA last season. Peralta started shaky last year with a 4.42 ERA in the first half of the season, but posted a 2.75 ERA in 39 1/3 innings after the All-Star Break.
New York had a 128 wRC+ off of right-handed pitching from August 1, 2022 to the end of the season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee ranked 16th in MLB at 98, so the Brewers were slightly below average. That said, both have a sub-100 wRC+ off of righties in the first few games
Expect these two savvy veterans to toss a nice game and hold their opponents in check for an under.
New York Mets
Carrasco is a solid pitcher and has been for the entirety of his career. He slipped up a bit in 2021, but has since leveled off back to his past performances. In 2022, he boasted a chase rate in the 94th percentile, which should help against a Brewers lineup that doesn't often go after pitches outside of the strike zone. Otherwise, Carrasco ranked in the 52nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and in the 50th or better percentiles in strikeout and walk rates. His career 6.1% walk rate should help against a Milwaukee team that ranked fourth in walks in 2022.
The relief corps did take a hit with Edwin Díaz’s injury in the World Baseball Classic, but in 2022 the Mets' bullpen tied for second in xFIP with the Cleveland Guardians and only trailed the Houston Astros. The bullpen also boasted a strikeout rate above 27%, which Díaz obviously contributed to. David Robertson, Adam Ottavino and Drew Smith are all great options on the back of a solid Carrasco start. They should stop a weaker-hitting Milwaukee team from putting a dent into the scoreboard.
Milwaukee Brewers
Peralta is an underrated pitcher. In 2022, he ranked in the 80th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 93rd percentile in Hard Hit Rate. His Barrel Rate also ranked in the 97th percentile. However, he was the recipient of some horrible luck. His xERA was 2.70 and his ERA was 3.58. That's still good, but the results did not pair well with expectations. His strikeout rate was above 27%, but it dropped from 2020 and 2021, so expect it to bounce back. He did rank in the 40th percentile in walk rate, so that may hurt at times.
Willy Adames and Brian Anderson are the only Brewers with a .340+ xwOBA off of righties this season. Adding William Contreras, Jesse Winker and Anderson helped bolster a pretty weak lineup, which could be a threat to the under. However, Anderson and Winker ranked in the bottom half of the league in Average Exit Velocity, so they won't be as large of a boost against Carrasco.
Finally, Milwaukee’s bullpen is strong, especially the back-end. The bullpen had a 3.69 ERA in 2022. Devin Williams is day-to-day, which hurts a little, but as long as Peralta doesn't walk too many, he should throw deep into this game.
Mets vs. Brewers Betting Pick
Overall, these are two strong pitchers with good bullpens behind them, especially if Williams is available. Carrasco and Peralta should have solid games, and the Mets and Brewers lineups should struggle.
Pick: Under 8 | Play to 7.5 (-120) |
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