Mets vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - September 30, 2024

Mets at Braves

5:10 pm • ESPN2

New York Mets

0-0

8 - 7

Atlanta Braves

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Schwellenbach			3.35	8-7
T.Megill			4.04	4-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 0-0	+1.5	+1.5-175	o7.5-118	+124
Braves 0-0	u8	-1.5+145	u7.5-103	-148

Monday 5:10 p.m.

September 30, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

NYM +120 (Live)

1.11u

At work

ATL -148

#5starsmlb

Under 7.5-103

Under 8-115

1.15u

NYM +0.5 (F5)-114

1.14u

ATL -145

Atlanta Braves Game 1 ML (-145 @ MGM) I don't bet game outcomes often, but I really like this spot for the Braves at this price. Now both of these teams need to win 1 game from the doubleheader to make the playoffs and bounce ARI out. In game 1 we get Schwellenbach vs Megill. Here are the numbers between the two: Schwellenbach: 3.47 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 25.7% K-rate Megill: 3.98 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 26.7% K-rate So pretty similar numbers, except Megill puts more guys on base, which is a big deal against a good offense with pop. We've seen both of these guys face these lineups before. Here are Schwellenbach's games vs NYM: 9/24: 7 IP, 3 HA, 1 ER, 4 K's 7/27: 7 IP, 2 HA, 0 ER, 11 K's Two really good outings from him this season against this team! Megill hasn't had the same type of success between this season and last: 7/27: 6 IP, 5 HA, 4 ER, 4 K's 8/22/23: 4.2 IP, 8 HA, 3 ER, 5 K's 8/11/23: 5.1 IP, 9 HA, 5 ER, 3 K's 5/1/23: 5.2 IP, 4 HA, 3 ER, 4 K's This ATL team hits Megill well. From a motivation standpoint, I like this first game for ATL a lot too. If they can win game 1, they can save NY Cy Young Ace Chris Sale for Game 1 of the WC series, which is huge. Meanwhile, NYM is saving their better starter for Game 2 (Severino). If the Braves win game 1, you have to look at NYM in game two, but I'm sure the books will react accordingly as well. So let's get in on a nice price for game 1!

Under 8-115

0.58u

Updated Projection: 7.26 after umpire assignment & lineups. Bet to -118 or 7.5 (+100)

ATL -1.5+135

NYM o1.5 Team Total (F5)-120

1.2u

Sandy

NYM o1.5 Team Total (F5)-120

1.2u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-130

Avery

ATL -154

NYM +124

1.24u

All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW

T.d'Arnaud u1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-130

ATL -0.5 (F5)-110

1.3u

Johnny

NYM -110

Featured Insight
Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of 31% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Braves right-handed hitters have struck out 40% against LHP over the last week -- second highest in MLB.

TRY FOR FREE

Featured Insight
The Braves have allowed just 1.5 runs per game over the last week -- lowest in MLB (4 games). The Mets have scored just 1.8 runs per game over the last week -- second lowest in MLB (4 games).

TRY FOR FREE

Which 2024 World Series Contenders Are LEGIT? | MLB Postseason Picks & Predictions | Payoff Pitch
Brad Cunningham•
Sep 30, 2024 UTC
Mets vs. Braves: Moneyline Bet for Game 1
Tony Sartori•
Sep 30, 2024 UTC
+869 Braves vs Mets SGP to Bet
John Feltman•
Sep 30, 2024 UTC

See more MLB Coverage

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	72-89	32-49	40-40	44-61	27-27
Mets	74-88	39-42	35-46	48-67	26-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	72-80-9	33-45-3	39-35-6	46-54-5	25-25-4
Mets	76-80-6	40-39-2	36-41-4	54-55-6	22-25

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	76-86	39-42	36-44	55-50	19-35
Mets	83-79	49-32	34-47	64-51	19-28

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 29th	KC	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 8	KC -216
Sep 28th	KC	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL -245
Sep 27th	KC	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -188
Sep 24th	NYM	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -148
Sep 22nd	@MIA	W 5-4	-1.5 L	U 9	ATL -198

Joe Jimenez
RP
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Austin Riley
3B
Riley is out with abdominal
Out
Austin Cox
RP
Cox is out with knee
Out
Alek Manoah
SP
Manoah is out with elbow
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Jesse Winker
LF
Winker is out with back
Out
Griffin Canning
SP
Canning is out with achilles
Out
Nick Madrigal
3B
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Tylor Megill
SP
Megill is out with elbow
Out
Christian Scott
SP
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Megill, P	100	5.2	8	3
RH.Brazoban, P	13	0.1	0	0
RA.Ottavino, P	9	1	1	0
RP.Maton, P	12	0.1	0	2
RE.Diaz, P	40	1.2	2	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-5	2	1	3
2J.Iglesias, 2B	1-5	1	0	1
2J.Iglesias, 3B	1-5	1	0	1
3M.Vientos, 3B	0-3	0	0	1
3E.Alvarez, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
4B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	1	1	2
5P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
6J.Martinez, DH	1-3	0	0	0
6L.Acuna, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6L.Acuna, DH	0-0	0	0	0
7T.Taylor, RF	2-4	1	0	0
7T.Taylor, CF	2-4	1	0	0
8F.Alvarez, C	1-4	1	0	1
9H.Bader, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9S.Marte, PH	2-2	2	0	0
9S.Marte, RF	2-2	2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Schwellenbach, P	94	7	5	1
RJ.Jimenez, P	8	0	0	3
RR.Iglesias, P	12	0.1	0	2
LA.Bummer, P	13	0.2	1	0
RP.Johnson, P	21	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Harris, CF	1-4	2	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	2-3	1	1	5
3M.Ozuna, DH	0-5	0	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
5J.Soler, RF	0-3	0	0	0
5E.White, RF	1-1	1	0	0
6R.Laureano, LF	3-5	1	1	1
7T.d'Arnaud, C	2-5	1	0	0
8G.Urshela, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
8G.Urshela, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	0-2	0	0	0
9J.Kelenic, PH	1-1	0	0	1
9W.Merrifield, PR	0-0	1	0	0
9W.Merrifield, 3B	0-0	1	0	0