Mets vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - September 30, 2024

Mets at Braves

5:10 pm • ESPN2

New York Mets

7-6

8 - 7

Atlanta Braves

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Schwellenbach			3.35	8-7
T.Megill			4.04	4-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-6	+1.5	+1.5-175	o7.5-118	+124
Braves 0-2	u8	-1.5+145	u7.5-103	-148

Monday 5:10 p.m.

September 30, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

NYM +120 (Live)

1.11u

At work

NYM +0.5 (F5)-114

1.14u

ATL -145

Atlanta Braves Game 1 ML (-145 @ MGM) I don't bet game outcomes often, but I really like this spot for the Braves at this price. Now both of these teams need to win 1 game from the doubleheader to make the playoffs and bounce ARI out. In game 1 we get Schwellenbach vs Megill. Here are the numbers between the two: Schwellenbach: 3.47 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 25.7% K-rate Megill: 3.98 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 26.7% K-rate So pretty similar numbers, except Megill puts more guys on base, which is a big deal against a good offense with pop. We've seen both of these guys face these lineups before. Here are Schwellenbach's games vs NYM: 9/24: 7 IP, 3 HA, 1 ER, 4 K's 7/27: 7 IP, 2 HA, 0 ER, 11 K's Two really good outings from him this season against this team! Megill hasn't had the same type of success between this season and last: 7/27: 6 IP, 5 HA, 4 ER, 4 K's 8/22/23: 4.2 IP, 8 HA, 3 ER, 5 K's 8/11/23: 5.1 IP, 9 HA, 5 ER, 3 K's 5/1/23: 5.2 IP, 4 HA, 3 ER, 4 K's This ATL team hits Megill well. From a motivation standpoint, I like this first game for ATL a lot too. If they can win game 1, they can save NY Cy Young Ace Chris Sale for Game 1 of the WC series, which is huge. Meanwhile, NYM is saving their better starter for Game 2 (Severino). If the Braves win game 1, you have to look at NYM in game two, but I'm sure the books will react accordingly as well. So let's get in on a nice price for game 1!

Under 8-115

0.58u

Updated Projection: 7.26 after umpire assignment & lineups. Bet to -118 or 7.5 (+100)

ATL -1.5+135

NYM o1.5 Team Total (F5)-120

1.2u

Sandy

NYM o1.5 Team Total (F5)-120

1.2u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-130

Avery

NYM +124

1.24u

All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW

ATL -0.5 (F5)-110

1.3u

Johnny

NYM -110

Featured Insight
Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of 31% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Braves right-handed hitters have struck out 40% against LHP over the last week -- second highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Braves have allowed just 1.5 runs per game over the last week -- lowest in MLB (4 games). The Mets have scored just 1.8 runs per game over the last week -- second lowest in MLB (4 games).

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The Mets are 74-21 (.779) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

61% of Marcell Ozuna fastball strikeouts are located away since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB-- 100th Percentile. 57% of Tylor Megill fastball strikeouts are located away since the 2022 season -- eighth highest among starting pitchers with at least 193 total IP-- 94th Percentile.

61% of fastball strikeouts for Ozzie Albies are located out of the zone since last season -- third highest among hitters with at least 481 total PA's-- 99th Percentile. 44% of Tylor Megill fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone since last season -- tied for 13th highest among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP-- 89th Percentile.

Tylor Megill has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to August 30th -- Scott Alexander has the longest active streak at 13.

Tylor Megill has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 56% (618/1,110) of the time since the 2022 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 193 total IP; League Avg: 63% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 29th	KC	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 8	KC -216
Sep 28th	KC	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL -245
Sep 27th	KC	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -188
Sep 24th	NYM	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	ATL -148
Sep 22nd	@MIA	W 5-4	-1.5 L	U 9	ATL -198

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Megill, P	100	5.2	8	3
RH.Brazoban, P	13	0.1	0	0
RA.Ottavino, P	9	1	1	0
RP.Maton, P	12	0.1	0	2
RE.Diaz, P	40	1.2	2	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-5	2	1	3
2J.Iglesias, 2B	1-5	1	0	1
2J.Iglesias, 3B	1-5	1	0	1
3M.Vientos, 3B	0-3	0	0	1
3E.Alvarez, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
4B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	1	1	2
5P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
6J.Martinez, DH	1-3	0	0	0
6L.Acuna, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6L.Acuna, DH	0-0	0	0	0
7T.Taylor, RF	2-4	1	0	0
7T.Taylor, CF	2-4	1	0	0
8F.Alvarez, C	1-4	1	0	1
9H.Bader, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9S.Marte, PH	2-2	2	0	0
9S.Marte, RF	2-2	2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Schwellenbach, P	94	7	5	1
RJ.Jimenez, P	8	0	0	3
RR.Iglesias, P	12	0.1	0	2
LA.Bummer, P	13	0.2	1	0
RP.Johnson, P	21	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Harris, CF	1-4	2	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	2-3	1	1	5
3M.Ozuna, DH	0-5	0	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
5J.Soler, RF	0-3	0	0	0
5E.White, RF	1-1	1	0	0
6R.Laureano, LF	3-5	1	1	1
7T.d'Arnaud, C	2-5	1	0	0
8G.Urshela, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
8G.Urshela, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	0-2	0	0	0
9J.Kelenic, PH	1-1	0	0	1
9W.Merrifield, PR	0-0	1	0	0
9W.Merrifield, 3B	0-0	1	0	0