We've made it, folks. The stakes can't get any higher in Atlanta today, as the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are set to play a doubleheader, determining the playoff picture in the National League.
The Mets control their destiny; if they win the first game of the doubleheader, they'll clinch a postseason birth. The Braves also need just one victory to secure their playoff birth, but if either team gets swept on Monday, they would be eliminated and the Arizona Diamondbacks would clinch a playoff birth. A split would eliminate Arizona.
Whoever wins the first game of the doubleheader (1:10 p.m. ET, ESPN2) will likely rest their players in Game 2, considering they'll be hopping right into the Wild Card Series on Tuesday.
Tylor Megill will be on the mound for the Mets, and Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves. Oddsmakers have the Mets as +130 underdogs and the total is 7.5
For Game 1, I was able to craft up a three-leg same game parlay. So, here's my Braves vs. Mets MLB parlay picks.
John Feltman's Braves vs Mets MLB Parlay Picks for Monday
- Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
- Mets ML (+130)
Parlay Odds: +869 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Schwellenbach has carved up the Mets in his career, and there's no reason to think similar results aren't imminent today. In 46 career at-bats, the Mets are hitting .087 against him with a 34% strikeout rate.
Schwellenbach has been spectacular in 116 innings pitched in 2024, striking out 122 hitters. He has a terrific walk rate and a 34% chase rate to opposing hitters, which ranks above the 96th percentile amongst all active pitchers.
His strikeout rate has dipped in September, but it won't slow down. He only struck out four batters through seven innings in his last start on September 24 against New York, but I believe he'll benefit from positive strikeout regression today.
In a critical game like this, it's expected that both offenses will be tighter than usual. Typically, that will correlate to more strikeouts.
There's a good reason why his strikeout prop is juiced so much, and I'm banking on a bounce back from Schwellenbach in the strikeout department.
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
The Braves have seen a lot of Megill in the past, but nobody has been better against him than Ozuna.
Ozuna is 6-for-12 lifetime against him, including two homers and a double.
Ozuna has been the Braves' most consistent hitter all season. He has yet to cool off and is batting .306 since the All-Star break.
Given the implications of today's game, someone will need to step up, and Ozuna fits that bill. Just consider that 34 of his 39 home runs have come against right-handed pitching.
I expect Ozuna to rack up a couple of hits or at least one extra-base hit while Megill is in the game.
Given the matchup, it's cheap, so it's an excellent opportunity to take advantage.
Mets ML +130
I just rambled on how Schwellenbach has carved up the Mets in 2024, but I'm still rolling with New York to take care of business on Monday in the first game.
The Mets' offense finally showed some life yesterday in Milwaukee, including a homer from Francisco Lindor.
Lindor is critical to the offense's success moving forward, and he'll need to step up today in a tough matchup against Schwellenbach.
The Mets will struggle in the early going against Schwellenbach, but I give them the edge once he leaves the game.
Considering their lack of success against him this season, I would expect the offense to take a lot of pitches to drive up the pitch count. The quicker he exits the game, the higher the probability of them winning.
This is also a market play for me. Only 15% of the bets are on New York to win the game, yet some sharp money has come across the counter on its handle as of Monday morning.
It's not surprising, given how much the offense has struggled lately and their lack of success against Schwellenbach, but they can keep the game close with Megill on the mound.
Megill has been up and down throughout 2024, but he's shown in his last couple of starts that he can mow down good lineups.
Megill has only allowed four runs in September, and he's had over a week of rest prepping for today's start.
The Mets' offense should break through late, and I expect New York to hang on for a tight victory.
