Marlins vs. Rockies Odds & Betting Predictions - August 29, 2024

.tsa rockies overs Overall: 111-59-9,65% (ROI:25%) Season:2-2-0,50% (ROI:-1%)

The MIA bats have been top 10 in BA the L15 & L7 days. They will see K. Freeland today who’s allowing a .317 BA at night & a .304 BA vs righties. This game is at night & these hot MIA bats will have 6 righties in their lineup tonight. The COL bats have not been nearly as hot, but they’re coming off of a 6 game road trip & they hit much at home (8 runs yesterday in 1st game back). They will also face M. Mayer who has a 7.46 ERA in Aug. & allowing a .274 BA away, .284 BA at night, & equally as bad vs both lefties & righties. Both bullpens rank in the bottom 1/3 of the league & this game is at Coors (the best hitting park) with 7 mph winds blowing OUT. This is valid up to 11.5 in my eyes.

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice First off, the pitching hasn't been at its prime from either side so far, as the Marlins look to Max Meyer facing the bump against the Rockies left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland. Meyer comes into this game with a 5.44 ERA, but more telling possibly is his 5.04 xERA, which indicates his current performance is not a fluke, and his struggles will likely continue. Meyer's WHIP of 1.36 is a sure sign that he is continually letting a bunch of people on the bags, which instances tons of runs, especially in Coors Field. Furthermore, Meyer's low strikeout rate reduces his ability to get out of jams, as more balls are put in play bound to find more opportunities for the Rockies to capitalize. Meyer's high Barrel% and Hard-Hit% are equally problematic because they signal opposing hitters are making hard contact on a consistent basis against him. Against him, the average exit velocity is 90.7 mph, showing that Meyer is indeed giving up a lot of hard-hit balls, which plays well into extra-base hits or home runs in Coors Field. Kyle Freeland's outlook is hardly much better. With a 5.70 ERA and a marginally, though just as poor, 5.14 xERA, Freeland is yet another pitcher who's been consistently below average this season. His 1.49 WHIP indicates an even higher rate of baserunners than Meyer, and like Meyer, he struggles to miss bats with his low strikeout rate. This is a lack of strikeout-generating stuff, therefore a solid offensive season by the Marlins; there should be a lot of contact. The high expected batting average against Freeland supports the Marlins producing runs. His high Barrel% and Hard-Hit% also suggest that the Marlins will likely make strong contact throughout the game. As with Meyer, the average exit velocity allowed by Freeland is 90.7 mph, which often means the ball is coming off the bat hard. A recipe for disaster in the thin air of Denver. The game being in Coors Field—a place identified with high-scoring games because of the high altitude, which allows balls to travel a far distance—only adds to the probability of a high-scoring game. The weather forecast then contributes to this abhorrent environment by forecasting 89°F with a slight breeze blowing out. Warm temperatures help the ball fly further and with the wind assisting, it would not be surprising to see a few balls leave the yard and continue to drive up the score. Further enhancing the likelihood of a high-scoring total are the recent outings by both bullpens. The Marlins will have their work cut out for them in this game, though; their bullpen has not been the same of late, allowing them an ERA of 5.00 over their last 3 games. Such figures easily enable runs to cross the plate later when Meyer exits. Though the Rockies have had a pretty awful bullpen, currently holding a 7.16 ERA over their last three games. This is a poor performance that is going to suggest that even in a case where Freeland manages an outing of some sorts and manages to keep this game somewhat in check, the Marlins are probably still going to be coming up with plenty of chances to score in the later innings. This might push the total over 11 runs. Offensively, the Marlins have been a little more consistent this year with a .262 team batting average and a very strong .332 OBP, which indicates that they get on base at a pretty solid rate. This is especially applicable to their success against left-handed hurlers, given the fact that the Fish have a current .273 batting average against southpaws. With Freeland, this can easily mean a lot of scorings happening. The Marlins also feature some power in their bats, hitting almost one home run per nine innings, which should clearly be boosted within the friendly confines of Coors Field. The Rockies are still having a bad year in general but can manage to average 4.00 runs per 9 innings. While the team has managed a very low batting average of .227, the overall effect of playing at Coors Field tends to elevate those numbers. While not enormously impressive, their .379 slugging percentage might show us that they can still hit with extra bases, particularly in their home ballpark. The Rockies have also stranded plenty of runners on base, but with this, that hasn't prevented them from scoring their share of runs as well. This would indicate that when they do get hits, they tend to be of the run-producing variety, which is extremely important in what looks like a game where both starting pitchers will struggle. Looking at the recent history between these two teams, the last matchup ended in a 9-8 victory for Miami, further emphasizing the potential for a high-scoring game. Both teams have shown they can put up runs against each other, and with two struggling pitchers on the mound, this trend seems likely to continue.

Freeland is under in 10/15, including 5/7 at home. Marlins have been slightly below avg vs lefties of late with a 23% K%. But Freeland is a very below avg K pitcher (14th percentile), with the 24th lowest CSW% out of 183 qualifiers. The Marlins have also held a below avg CSW% in the 2H of the season.

Bet to 11 (-105)