Rockies vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - August 23, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Rockies enter Yankee Stadium with a .217 batting average on the road, .277 OBP, and .351 SLG, making them one of the worst road offensive teams this season. All these numbers are sizably below league averages and underscore their inability to constantly create offense away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Against left-handed pitching, those struggles are more pronounced—to the tune of a .234 batting average, indicative of how much trouble they are likely to have scoring runs against Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón. Rodón, even in a season with a rather middle-of-the-road ERA of 4.34, has shown the ability to avoid getting hit around the yard, especially when he is commanding his pitches fairly well. His 1.25 WHIP shows he doesn't put on many baserunners, and his 25.8 percent strikeout rate ranks him amidst some of the best pitchers out there. Rodón's percentile rankings further drive home his upside at this game, with a 75th percentile in fastball velocity and a 90th percentile Offspeed Run Value—both are testaments to the fact that his offspeed is exceptionally effective. These metrics are huge against a Rockies team which hasn't been playing well on the road, but more importantly, hasn't fared so well against high-end pitching. The Yankees' offense has not really been much better, specifically when it comes to lefties. The Yankees have had a hard time putting together an offense, due in large part to placing only .230 against lefties. Their OBP against southpaws is just .321 with a SLG of .402, an indicator of a lineup that is not packing the punch that one would want and need to drive in runs consistently. This is further compounded by their recent interleague play, during which they have gone 3-8 in the last 11 games, a harbinger that they struggle against teams with whom they are less familiar, which could translate into a lower output offensively here. Kyle Freeland gets the nod for the Rockies with an ERA sitting precariously at 5.97, but he's shown better in most peripheral stats. That doesn't change the fact that Freeland's WHIP of 1.53 still gives up more than a baserunner per inning, however his ability to grind out groundballs, with a solid GB/FB ratio, could keep him off the hook from big innings against this Yanks lineup that has struggled to cash most times in their scoring opportunities. While his .290 xBA and 41.2 percent hard-hit rate do reveal a penchant for hard contact, this can be mitigated by conditions in Yankee Stadium night games with cooler temperatures and wind, which could suppress the carry of the ball and, in turn, decrease the likelihood of home runs and extra-base hits—critical for driving up a total score. Now, one major reason this play is under and a significant portion: how good the Yankees bullpen has been recently. They stand near the top in ERA and have combined for a WHIP of 1.27, meaning that their reliability comes from not allowing many runs, especially late in ballgames. In the last three games, the bullpen has been even better: 2.81 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, which implies that it's arguably in the best form to snuff out any kind of comeback offense the Rockies can put forth late in the game. The Rockies have been especially lousy on the road. They're 20-69 in their last 89 road games, which does suggest a long-term trend of offensive ineptitude away from home. At the same time, while the Yankees have not been very good in interleague play overall, they're 19-7 to the over in their last 26 such games. As I said, again, that's more what opponents have done against them than any type of big offense, and with these teams slumping into the weekend—both 4-6 in their last 10—it's tough to know where the offense might come from. Head-to-head trends support the under, too. The Rockies are 3-8 in their last 11 meetings in New York, a sign that they've traditionally had problems scoring at Yankee Stadium. This trend will continue on with the current form of both offenses and the pitching matchup.

Flat to -112

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