Mariners vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - May 23, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

McCullers has just a 13.3% K rate through 3 starts after not pitching since the 2022 season due to multiple arm surgeries. My expected K model has him a bit higher at 16.8%, but I’m not expecting a return to his 26.2% career rate — more likely in the 18–19% range if he settles in. But for now, he’s clearly not the same pitcher. He’s throwing his knuckle curve — his best out pitch in 2022 — 15% less often, and his slider’s whiff rate has dropped from 32% to just 20%. His most-used pitch this season is now his changeup (27% usage), but it’s generating just a 13% whiff rate. He’s also struggling to get ahead in counts and leaning heavily on called strikes — not ideal with Erich Bacchus behind the plate, who’s been squeezing pitchers at the top and bottom of the zone. The Mariners strike out at the 2nd-highest rate in MLB at home (25.5%), but just 20.4% on the road (7th lowest). And this game is in Houston, where T-Mobile Park — the Mariners’ home stadium — leads all parks in strikeout rate park factor, meaning McCullers loses that K-friendly setting here. Dylan Moore is his best shot to K, but he’s hitting 8th, making a third PA unlikely. I project this closer to -135, and like the under given all the underlying factors.

Not getting a ton of leash yet, and he hasn't been effective. Even bumping McCullers' projected strikeout rate, I still have him projected at just 4.24 strikeouts, more than low enough for me to show value in the under.

Bet to -115