Cardinals vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 29, 2023

Cardinals at Dodgers

2:10 am • Apple TV+

St. Louis Cardinals

0-0

3 - 7

Los Angeles Dodgers

11-5

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.May			2.63	4-1
J.Flaherty			6.75	1-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cardinals 0-0	+1.5-170	o8.5-120	+115
Dodgers 11-5	-1.5+140	u8.5-102	-140

Saturday 2:10 a.m.

April 29, 2023

Dodger StadiumLos Angeles

STL +126

0.5u

Project May/Flaherty pick ‘em. Big difference in bullpen efficiency. Dodgers struggling against relief lefties

LAD -1.5+140

0.99u

D.May u5.5 Ks-144

0.69u

Available at FanDuel. A couple things align to make the under viable here. First, May is facing a low-strikeout Cardinals offense. Second, we've seen May make 11 starts since the beginning of last year, and he has topped this number just twice. Granted, one of them last week, and it came when he went back to his slider more than he had been earlier this year. He's also now at home. But I don't want a one-game boost where he hit the over by a half strikeout to override all other data. I have May projected for 4.83 strikeouts, a big enough gap for me to take the under.

D.May u5.5 Ks-120

May just hasn’t been missing bats this season - he’s in the 6th percentile of whiff rate, and he’s under this line in 4/5 games. STL’s K% vs righties is 21% - coupled with May being on a shorter leash - it’s difficult to see him getting enough batters to reach 6 Ks.

Over 8.5-115

One day, Flaherty will get blown up and I’ll maniacally laugh as the LuckBox slowly ceases to exist

Over 8.5-102

0.5u

Bet to -112

The Dodgers are just 1-10 (.091) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.

The Cardinals are just 1-11 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.

The Cardinals are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season -- tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.

The Dodgers are 33-25 (.569) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since the 2021 season -- 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .540.

Tommy Edman is batting just .200 on fastballs this season -- tied for sixth worst in MLB-- seventh Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .175 (10-for-57) on Dustin May fastballs this season -- fifth best among qualified SPs-- 94th Percentile.

47% of Paul Goldschmidt strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- fifth highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. 53% of Dustin May's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- eighth highest among qualified SPs-- 92nd Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11
Cardinals	80-82	42-39	38-43	28-49	51-33

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9
Cardinals	74-83-5	37-42-2	37-41-3	39-38	34-45-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12
Cardinals	83-79	44-37	39-42	39-38	43-41

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 27th	@PIT	L 2-6	-1.5 L	O 7.5	PIT -163
Apr 26th	@PIT	L 1-8	-1.5 L	O 8.5	PIT -145
Apr 25th	@PIT	W 8-7	-1.5 L	O 8	LAD -115
Apr 23rd	@CHC	W 7-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	LAD -145
Apr 22nd	@CHC	W 9-4	-1.5 W	O 8.5	LAD -125

Sonny Gray
P
Gray is out with arm
Out
Willson Contreras
C
Contreras is out with finger
Out
Lance Lynn
P
Lynn is out with knee
Out
Drew Rom
P
Rom is out with biceps
Out

Clayton Kershaw
P
Kershaw is out with toe
Out
Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Flaherty, P	110	4.2	7	4
LJ.Romero, P	39	2	3	1
RC.Stratton, P	30	1.1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Nootbaar, RF	1-2	1	1
2P.Goldschmidt, 1B	2-4	1	0
3N.Gorman, DH	0-3	0	0
4N.Arenado, 3B	0-4	0	0
5W.Contreras, C	0-3	0	1
6A.Burleson, LF	0-4	0	0
7P.DeJong, SS	0-3	1	0
8B.Donovan, 2B	2-3	0	0
8T.Edman, PH	0-1	0	0
9D.Carlson, CF	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.May, P	104	5	4	2
LC.Ferguson, P	11	1	1	0
LV.Gonzalez, P	8	0.2	0	0
RB.Graterol, P	1	0.1	0	0
RS.Miller, P	11	1	0	0
LA.Vesia, P	28	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Betts, SS	1-5	1	1	1
1M.Betts, RF	1-5	1	1	1
2F.Freeman, 1B	3-5	1	0	0
3W.Smith, DH	1-5	2	0	0
4M.Muncy, 3B	1-2	1	0	1
5J.Heyward, RF	2-2	0	0	2
5J.Heyward, CF	2-2	0	0	2
5T. Thompson, PH	0-0	1	0	0
5T. Thompson, LF	0-0	1	0	0
6J.Outman, CF	0-3	0	0	1
6J.Outman, LF	0-3	0	0	1
6J.Outman, CF	0-3	0	0	1
7M.Vargas, 2B	1-4	1	1	2
8D.Peralta, LF	0-2	0	0	0
8C.Taylor, PH	0-2	0	0	0
8C.Taylor, SS	0-2	0	0	0
9A.Barnes, C	0-3	0	0	0