Brewers vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Brewers at Royals

11:40 pm • BSWI

Milwaukee Brewers

10-9

6 - 5

Kansas City Royals

13-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Lugo			3.01	16-9
C.Rea			4.29	12-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 10-9	+1.5-181	o9-122	+112
Royals 13-8	-1.5+150	u9-101	-130

Tuesday 11:40 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

MIL +105

MIL o4.5 Team Total+102

0.51u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-128

0.64u

MIL +110

1.1u

Have the Brewers favored here. Don't have super high marks on Colin Rea, but the Brewers' combo of hitting plus defense lifts them enough to make them the favorites.

S.Lugo u5.5 Ks-150

0.67u

Ballpark pal projects 4.8 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -206 giving value to this number

MIL +114

0.57u

Bet to +110

Featured Insight
Brewers won 57% of their games last season -- fifth best in MLB. Royals won just 35% of their games last season -- second worst.

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Featured Insight
Royals have a strikeout rate of 27% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Brewers left-handed hitters have struck out 36% against RHP over the last week -- highest in MLB.

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The Brewers are 46-14 (.767) when they've hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .691.

The Royals are just 10-54 (.156) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

The Brewers are 63-48 (.568) after a win since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.

Vinnie Pasquantino has struck out in just 10% of PA's over the last two weeks -- tied for 14th lowest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 11% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- fourth lowest among qualified SPs-- fifth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .036 (1-for-28) against Seth Lugo with two-strikes over the last 14 days -- best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .159 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (45/242) against Colin Rea this season -- tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (19/107) against Seth Lugo this season -- 4th lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 25% -- eighth Percentile.

Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% (23 SO in 144 PAs) this season -- 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- eighth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Royals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	87-75	43-38	44-37	40-38	46-37
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	69-88-5	38-42-1	31-46-4	32-46	36-42-5
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	86-76	45-36	41-40	49-29	36-47
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 6th	MIL	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	KC -140
May 5th	TEX	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	TEX +114
May 4th	TEX	L 4-15	+1.5 L	O 8.5	TEX -108
May 3rd	TEX	W 7-1	+1.5 W	U 8.5	KC -119
May 1st	@TOR	W 6-1	+1.5 W	U 8	KC +120

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is questionable with back
Questionable

Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Rea, P	65	4.2	2	4
LH.Milner, P	22	1.1	3	0
RT.Vieira, P	15	0.2	1	1
LJ.Koenig, P	19	1.1	0	0
RT.Megill, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Frelick, RF	1-3	0	0	0
1A.Monasterio, PH	1-2	0	0	1
1A.Monasterio, 3B	1-2	0	0	1
1A.Monasterio, LF	1-2	0	0	1
2W.Contreras, C	2-5	1	0	0
3T.Black, DH	1-3	0	0	0
3G.Sanchez, PH	0-1	1	0	0
3G.Sanchez, DH	0-1	1	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	1-4	1	1	3
5B.Turang, 2B	2-5	0	0	0
6R.Hoskins, 1B	1-5	1	1	1
7J.Ortiz, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
7J.Bauers, RF	1-1	0	0	0
8J.Chourio, LF	1-3	0	0	0
8O.Dunn, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8O.Dunn, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
9B.Perkins, CF	1-4	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Lugo, P	77	6.2	5	3
LA.Zerpa, P	13	0.1	1	0
RJ.Schreiber, P	27	1	2	0
RJ.McArthur, P	30	1	0	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	1-5	0	0
2B.Witt, SS	2-4	2	0
3V.Pasquantino, 1B	3-5	1	3
4S.Perez, C	1-4	0	1
5M.Massey, 2B	1-4	0	0
6H.Renfroe, RF	0-4	0	0
7M.Melendez, DH	1-4	1	0
8N.Velazquez, LF	1-4	0	0
8G.Hampson, LF	0-0	0	0
9K.Isbel, CF	2-4	1	1