The WNBA only has one game on the slate for Thursday, September 12, and it’s a rematch between the New York Liberty and Dallas Wings. After previously facing each other earlier this week, the Liberty have more to gain from this game than the Wings. Another win to their WNBA best record, creating more separation from the Minnesota Lynx in the standings, and to sharpen their mindset heading into the playoffs is plenty of what the Liberty may have on their agenda into Thursday's matchup.
The Dallas Wings may already have their sights set on next season and how they can come back bigger and better after missing the playoffs this year. But in these last few days of the WNBA regular season, bettors still have opportunities in each matchup including this one as we dive into player props.
Continue below for my WNBA player props for Thursday's matchup.
Dallas’ defense surrenders the most rim attempts and third most paint attempts per game. Additionally, opponents produce the largest field goal percentage at the rim and inside the paint.
It’s a bloodbath near the basket, which greatly benefits reigning MVP Breanna Stewart. In three matchups versus the Wings this season, she produced 19, 26, and 27 points.
Scoring opportunities should be plentiful, but that’s only one part of the equation. How’s her first basket usage? To put it simply, it’s excellent. She has taken New York’s first shot of the game in 14-of-34 starts. That 41% rate checks in as one of the largest in the league.
Stewart secured the Liberty’s first shot in 2-of-3 matchups against Dallas and also cashed their first basket twice with one of those being via a layup.
I suggest playing Stewart to score New York’s first basket (which includes free throws) at one unit, down to +190 odds. On the other hand, I recommend a quarter of a unit on the exact method bet, down to +1400 odds.
Controlling the glass against New York is a difficult feat. Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Nyara Sabally lead the charge for a Liberty squad that allows the lowest offensive rebound rate, second fewest rebounds per game, and fewest rebounds per game to opposing centers.
Because Teaira McCowan faces an efficient offense that dominates the defensive boards on the other end, she cannot count on seeing a ton of rebound chances here. The matchup data shows this lackluster production too. McCowan has recorded one, five, and eight boards versus New York’s imposing frontcourt this season. Look for another down night, especially if the veteran once again gets into foul trouble trying to defend the Liberty’s bigs.
I recommend playing this line at one unit, down to -140 odds.
