Another week in the WNBA is in the books, and although we just passed the All-Star break, the league landscape appears to be coming together.
The better teams are starting to separate, and it's looking like we may have a solid four-team group that will likely sit out the postseason.
With that "settling" of the league, the books also have more information than ever. This has been especially notable in the player prop market, which has gotten sharper throughout the season. Some of those egregious lines that were popping early on have disappeared, and while there are undoubtedly still edges to be found, bettors have to work harder to find them.
Hopefully, this article can eliminate some of that work for you, as we'll highlight a few players each week to keep an eye on.
Please note that, because of the sharpening market, these plays are now more likely to last just the week and not beyond that. For example, the market has caught up on Alyssa Thomas and Brittney Griner points. In fact, the latter could now have a good case for her under while Diana Taurasi is out as teams swarm Griner in the post and limit her ability to get shots off.
For today's article, we're going back to the Chicago well, which has proven fertile with Elizabeth Williams, and we also head to our nation's capital for a couple players thriving in the absence of a few injured teammates.
WNBA Player Props Betting Forecast
Kahleah Copper
Schedule: Tues. vs Aces | Fri. vs Storm | Sun. vs Mercury
In last week's player prop forecast, we highlighted a pair of Chicago Sky bigs who were headed in opposite directions under new head coach Emre Vatansever. This week, we head to the Chicago backcourt for yet another player who has seen a key difference in usage and success under her new head coach.
In the first 15 games of the season, Copper sported a 26.3 percent usage rate and averaged 16.5 points on 14.9 field-goal attempts per game. However, it has become clear that Vatansever wants to rely on his star player even more.
In the six games since James Wade left, Copper has a 29.0 percent usage rate (highest amongst all qualified players during that stretch) and is averaging 21.2 points on 16.7 field-goal attempts.
The books posted her points line at 17.5, which got bet up to 18.5, and I'd imagine it will open at least at that number given she went for 29 on Saturday.
This week, Copper and the Sky face the Aces, before another crack at the Storm and then the Mercury. All three games are at home, and the latter two are particularly easy matchups.
I'm projecting Copper for around 20.0 points per game right now based on the matchup.
If the books hang 19.5 against the Aces, it will probably be a stay away, but barring any strange lower minutes total or usage in that game, I would indeed take over 19.5 points in either of the latter two games.
Brittney Sykes/Natasha Cloud
Schedule: Wed. at Lynx | Fri. at Wings | Sun. at Dream
If you've been following in the app, you'll likely be surprised by the fact that this is the first time I am officially writing up Sykes. The seventh-year guard has been a common bet for me in recent weeks, as the Mystics have seen their starting lineup go down one-by-one to injury.
Sykes has made the most of that extra potential usage, averaging 19.1 points per game since the injury bug hit D.C. The books have struggled to keep up with her trajectory, most notably in terms of her ceiling. She has cleared 25 points in three of those games, so if you were building a points escalator for her, you've been doing very well.
The books closed her points prop at 17.5 last game — and that wasn't even enough — so I'd imagine we'll get 18.5, if not 19.5, this week given her matchups.
If Elena Delle Donne, Shakira Austin and Ariel Atkins all remain sidelined, however, I still think there's some value to be found looking at her overs. However, because she can be streaky, I may be looking at that "To score 25+ points" market yet again, if they are hanging numbers around +350-400 range.
Cloud is someone I haven't been betting as much, but I am going to be looking at her this week. The Lynx and Dream have poor defenses, while the Wings will be determined based on the number we get.
Cloud hasn't been going off for as long as Sykes, but ever since the Mystics lost their third starter, she has taken over more of the scoring responsibilities. It's been three games without the full three-starter combo, and Cloud has averaged 19.7 points on 15.3 field-goal attempts in those games.
Her points prop closed at 13.5 last game, and I'd project her around 17.5 against the Lynx on Wednesday.
Be cautious with these two, however, as much of their value is centered around their teammates being out. If any of the three are to come back, Cloud, in particular, would see her points prop value drop notably, so be alert to news on that front.
